A.J. Burnett finds himself in a position most would envy. If he pitches poorly this season, he's guaranteed $12 million next year. If he pitches well, he can make a whole lot more.
Somewhere in there must lay incentive.
The first two years of Burnett's tenure with Toronto has produced 20 victories and a whole bunch of head-scratching. Some days, he's Tom Seaver, other days, he's Tom Jones. But when Burnett is at his best, he's as good as anyone in baseball. Consider David Ortiz' comments in Tuesday's edition of the Boston Globe:
"Burnett can be better than what he is. When he's on, bro...I don't think he's even come close to the top of what he can be. But he's got (Josh) Beckett kind of stuff. And he could be that good if he got it together. He's got ambitious stuff."
If Ortiz feels that way, goodness knows most of the league must too.
A look at the Blue Jays' starting five yields some easy-to-piece-together projections. Roy Halladay will go deep into games and likely win anywhere between 16 and 19 games. Call it gravy if Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan win more than 12 games each, and a pat on the back for Jesse Litsch if he happens to get into double figures.
This brings us to Burnett. He missed almost two months last season, and still won 10, some of them in dominant fashion. What would a full season bring? That's hard to say; Burnett hasn't had one since 2005.
The Blue Jays are deep in some areas, but starting pitching isn't one of them. Prospects such as David Purcey or Ricky Romero remain works-in-progress, and the farm system remains void of capable replacements.
That makes this a critical year for Burnett. If he decides to opt out of his contract at season's end, the Blue Jays would like to see two things from him before he goes: pitching at the level described by Ortiz, and doing it every five days until the end of September.
It's funny how if he has one good year (this year) some team will go out there and blow their brains out. They will go on and on how he has turned the corner. Problem is half way through next year he will be hurt again. If they guy had any class he wouldn't opt out of anything because the Jays have paid him for 2 years to do nothing.
I fear that the worst case scenario could happen this year. Which is:
AJ goes 0-3 in April with a 5.5 ERA. Beginning of May he gets injured (AGAIN!!!) and is placed on the 60-day DL. Comes back in August with the Jays 12 games out of the playoff race. Goes 7-0 with a 2.4 ERA for the rest of the season in meaningless games and against sub 500 teams. Burnett decides to opt-out at the end of the year and JP, in his last act as GM before being fired, re-signs AJ to a 5 year/$80 million contract, because he saw how well he pitched down the stretch in garbage games.
Then we can start the AJ Burnett saga over again, with him getting injured for the 30th time in 2009 spring training. He goes 38-68 over the life of the contract.
I just realized that AJ is the highest paid player on the Jays this year. What a joke.
After two games...
Burnett will have a career season in 08. Who cares if he leaves next year- so long as Toronto gets his best now.
Wells has his swing back.
Okay naysayers: Get off AJ's back and stand beside him as he continues this season. Don't knock a player until you have walked in his shoes.He has won his first game contrary to what haven45 has already predicted. It's time to get on the Jays bandwagon right now from the start of the season and as Dave Winfield said 15 years ago "I WANT NOISE". C'mon fans lets get motivated and as Doc said "LET'S GET SOME URGENCY". I rest my case. ttyl
I agree it's about time this city gets behind them. I have been a diehard since 85 and it killed me to see any empty dome the last few years. Hand it to Rogers, they had a vision it is coming to fruition. Remember about 5 years ago, we were losing players etc. Now to think of the star we have it's pretty cool.
I say if there's any indication he'll walk, JP should trade him. Especially if he's having a good year, there would be a nice return for him. After all, they've only had him in the rotation half the time the last two years anyway.
Jamie,
Not sure if you or someone on this blog can answer this, there was mention last night during the game on an 'infield fly play' something about dropping the ball and 'exchanging the runner'. Basically, allowing the ball to drop to get the speedier runner out and replace him with a slower runner. If you can help out, it would be appreciated. Thanks.
Golffan,
Now I ain't no Jamie Campbell but... sounds to me like whoever was on 1st at the time was the faster runner and if the fielder let the ball drop and put-out that baserunner and if the batter (the slower runner) made it safely to 1st during the play then the baserunner was in effect "exchanged" for a slower one. I don't understand this though because shouldn't the infield fly rule be called anyway resulting in the batter being out and the speedy runner still being on 1st. I must be missing something.
AtLarge,
Infield fly rule is in effect when there is a runner on first AND second with less than two outs - so it wouldn't be called in this particular scenario. If there was a runner on first and second with less than two outs, the potential is there to drop the ball and double up the runners by going third and second. In this case exchanging the runners would technically be allowed.
You nailed it Jamie, Tom Seaver or Tom Jones. And he may actually be better than Seaver when he's on.
I never miss a game when he's starting but unfortunately half the time I hear "What's New Pusscat" dancing through my head.
Burnett is going to be fine.Why?Same reason Wells will be fine,The Big Hurt ect...Accountability is the reason.Doc spoke up in spring training,i have to believe his words carry some weight in T.O.Also Eckstein is a leader.There is no way this guy should be a big leaguer,but yet watch him play.Rolen will be the same way.Playing hard is the way & these guys play hard.Players who don't will stick out like sore thumbs around these guys.Who wants to do that?Play hard = winning & winning is contagious.Everyone seems on board for the first time in J.P.'s tenure.
Our pitching seems very strong & in command.One more stud starter would be great.Take some pressure off the young starters.
Why is Hill batting 7th?Shouldn't he be 2nd?Where is Rolen going to bat?
Wouldn't Bonds look nice as D.H.?Say what you want,he can still hit & his teams always over-achieved.No one has ever altered a game like he does.He would bring that A-Rod presence to our line-up.We have many ingredients,pitching,leadership,descent offense ect...but who has presence at the plate?I mean big time?No one.He'd crack 40 to 45 playing in Skydome.
By the way why is Gibbons suddenly managing his butt off?
DaveH,
In 9 seasons Burnett has only made 25+ starts in 4 of those seasons, and 32 starts in 1 -- his 2005 contract year. Now, you could say that because this is a contract year he will try and pitch a full season to get the best contract, but I think 2005 was a fluke more than anything. Even if he pitches a full season, that doesn't mean he will dominate, he's a career .500 pitcher.
Comparing Burnett to Wells and Thomas is silly. Both those players are among top players at their position. Thomas, despite going through a couple slumps last year, did what most of us expected. Wells is a gold glove all-star coming off a career worst season due to injury. Burnett is a career .500 pitcher -- his best single season record is 12-9 (2002). To put that in comparison, Marcum is making less than 0.5 million and put up a better record last year (12-6).
Also, I can't even believe you are suggesting Bonds as DH. That makes no sense. First of all, I cannot imagine anyone in the Toronto clubhouse or front office wanting to deal with Bonds' baggage. Secondly, there's no way the Jays can afford another big contract, much less a contract that Bonds would command. Finally, even if Ted Rogers gave the team the money for Bonds, what do you do with Thomas' 10+ million contract? He has no trade value with that contract, so are you going to sit him? A 10 million dollar pinch hitter that can't play a position?
Finally, Gibbons is managing his butt off because of the 'chain of command'. Everyone knows how buddy-buddy JP and Gibbons are -- but JPs time could be coming to an end in Toronto if they don't make the playoffs this year -- especially since JP's bosses' contract is up after this season. If JPs boss goes, JP may go, which means Gibbons may go.
K...let's not even start with Barry Bonds. I'd rather see JP try and get us a little pitching depth. I love our front 4...and once we get BJ back our bullpen is going to be very solid, but Litch isn't going to do the job over the course of a full season and I doubt we'll get full healthy seasons out of our front 4. I'd hate to see this team finish with mid 80s in wins and have Josh Towers-like numbers from the number 5 spot again.
And leave AJ alone people. If this team makes the playoffs he's got the type of dominating stuff that could shut teams down over a 5 or 7 game series.
To dubdubdub:
What makes you think that Jesse Litsch(correct spelling)is going to fold. I will await with anticipation towards the end of the year to see if you are right, but I have to disagree with you on his record at the end of the year. GET POSITIVE!!!!!
Jamie,
On Toronto's afternoon drive radio, there is an opinionated talk show host who loves to rant about Burnett's frequent time on the DL and his view that Burnett has never been anything more than a .500 pitcher and probably never will be. His belief seems to stem from a view that a Won-Loss record is an accurate measure of a pitcher's ability when it is in fact, just an indicator and certainly not the best. I suspect you know this "personality". There is also a moron on the radio in the morning who mindlessly repeats the same idea. But the less said about him the better. I'm not sure he's actually seen many baseball games.
As is obvious to just about any baseball fan, the ERA is the generally accepted best measure of a pitcher's ability. While it's far from perfect, no other single measure is better. While wins and losses should not be ignored, it's an important consideration for the Cy Young award in particular, winning games as a pitcher relies on run support, something the AL pitcher can't influence. Gustavo Chacin was 9-4 in 2006 with a 5.05 ERA but got incredible run support.
For those obsessed with wins and losses, consider this. Last September I detailed Burnett's season to date for the radio show host. At the time, he was 8-7. Of the seven losses, in five of them, he allowed 3 or less runs but had 2 runs or less of run support. All were winnable games if the offence had done their part. In four of six no decisions, the bullpen blew his lead. He pitched a Quality start in another but didn't receive much support. With 4 runs support and no blown saves, Burnett's record have had 10 more wins (to that point) and 5 fewer losses. Hypothetically, with no change to his own performance, Burnett could have been 18-2 and he went on to win four more games at the end of the year. He could have finished the year with 22 wins, despite his time on the DL and been the obvious Cy Young winner.
Burnett had three bad games where he allowed 5 or more runs. Halladay had seven, btw. The ace of the staff's ERA's was 3.71 (relatively high for him), but Burnett's was only barely higher at 3.75.
As of Sept. 10th last year, Burnett led the league in opponent's batting average at .201.
The Jays had three in the top seven at that point.
AJ Burnett .201
Erik Bedard .212
Johan Santana .226
Dustin McGowan .230
Justin Verlander .233
Dan Haren .240
Shaun Marcum .240
Finally, as for Burnett being somehow overpaid at $11M per year, please check the records of Gil Meche, Ted Lilly or Barry Zito who signed similar sized contracts and consider who you would prefer over Burnett. Burnett has a blistering fastball and the nastiest curve in the game. If he has a good season and opts out, Riccardi won't be doing his job if he lets him leave.
Okay. Last night was a bump in the road for AJ. The A's seemed to have hit whatever he threw as if they knew what pitch was coming. Hopefully, Zaunnie and AJ have a chance to check the video to see where they went wrong. Don't jump off the bandwagon yet.
All I know is that even if A.J has a great season, I would be hesitant to sign him. He is as fragile as a china doll if you ask me.
It seems every move he makes, something breaks or twists or gets sore.
I really like him and I hope he has a good year for our sake, but I still think teams will think twice before signing him.
P.S A LOT is two words people