The three games in New York to start the season could have gone either way and with a little tighter defence, the Jays could have swept the Yankees. The pitching has been top shelf, arguably the best in the Majors to this point. Toronto has received quality starts in five of its six games, while the bullpen has been airtight, allowing just one run with a 0.69 ERA and a WHIP of exactly one. While critics will bellow that it’s just the first week of the season and everyone should keep their head, the way that the Blue Jays have pitched has all the earmarks of a very good season ahead.
This type of season from a pitching staff will keep a team in a playoff race well into September, something not seen in these parts since the early ‘90s. And all of this with closer B.J. Ryan, reportedly, a mere 10-14 days away from rejoining the team.
How well the Blue Jays have pitched, despite this being a small sample of games, should not surprise those who have been paying attention. Yes, 2007 was very disappointing for Toronto thanks to injuries that left the offense anaemic. After all, the Blue Jays’ staff posted a 3.61 ERA after the All-Star break, second in the Majors, and when you include the first six games of 2008, that number drops to 3.56, best among the 30 teams.
But as good as the pitching has been, I’ve been most impressed by the balance in the offense, and especially the power from the middle of the order. Vernon Wells’ return to form was expected. He’s just entering the prime of his career and with his shoulder problems now in the past, V-Dub should get back to the 30+ HR, 100+ RBI numbers he put up pre-injury.
Frank Thomas, on the other hand, is clearly nearing the end of his run and it seemed that his ejection on Thursday night in New York, on a pitch that had a lot of the plate, might have shamed Ol’ Frank into getting it together quick. The whispers have already begun about whether he will get the required 376 plate appearances with the Jays this year to trigger a $10 million option for 2009. The thinking is that the money could be better spent elsewhere and not on a player who will turn 40 in May. Perhaps it was the retro jerseys that the Jays wore in the home opener that put a spring in Thomas’ step and electricity in his bat.
Three of his four hits against the Red Sox went for extra-bases and his Grand Slam on Sunday gave him eight RBI for the series.
Production from the people who are paid very well to do just that is exactly what Toronto needs in order to contend. No more, no less. Nothing against the likes of David Eckstein, Marco Scutaro and, to some extent, Aaron Hill, but Wells, Thomas, Alex Rios and, when he returns, Scott Rolen are expected to get big, game-altering hits. Through the first six games, that has been the case, with the secondary producers also chipping in. Ten of Toronto’s 13 players with a plate appearance have at least one RBI.
When I log onto our Stats Inc. web site, the one set of numbers that I love to look at are player’s 162-game averages. So, if the Blue Jays’ Big 4 (Rios, Wells, Thomas and Rolen) were to have a statistically average season, then there 2008 numbers should resemble the following.
Alex Rios: .288 AVG, 15 HR, 76 RBI.
Vernon Wells: .281, 26 HR, 97 RBI.
Frank Thomas: .303, 37, 121.
Scott Rolen: .283, 28, 109.
Now, we know that Rios’ numbers are low because his breakthrough season was last season and he should easily reach 25 HR and 100 RBI. Wells’ numbers look about right, Thomas’ numbers are inflated by the MVP years early in his career while Rolen’s injury will probably prevent him from reaching his career average numbers.
Still, anything close to those numbers from their Big 4 producers and the others in the Jays’ lineup just need to be "average" and this team should have more than enough offense to compete, especially with the quality of their young pitchers.
One thing that can’t be measured statistically is a team’s confidence. Right now, the Blue Jays have plenty of it, and with some weaker teams on their upcoming schedule, they must avoid playing down to the level of their opposition, something that has hurt them terribly in recent years.
If they do that, good times lay ahead down at the concrete convertible.
