The Stats Man Scott Carson breaks down the contenders and pretenders in every MLB division as well as some standout individual performances at the halfway point.
THE BEST IS YET TO COME
As baseball take its annual three-game summer break, with the stars of the game gathering for one last time at Yankee Stadium to determine which league will get home field advantage in the World Series, there's no better time to look back at what has unfolded this season, and look ahead to what could be.
American League East:
For the surprise team of the first half, the break couldn't come fast enough. The Tampa Bay Rays won 55 of their first 87 games, to hold a five game lead over the Red Sox just a week before the break. The Rays then turned into the '87 Jays and have not won since to drop a half game behind Boston and allowed the Yankees and Blue Jays to cut their deficits in the East to single digit games. A lot of the pundits were expecting the Rays to come back to the pack, which they have, and now they must sit and stew over their slump for four days before returning to action next Friday with the Blue Jays visiting St. Petersburg. But let's not cut the Rays short. After years of high draft picks due to annual last place finishes, the farm system is finally bearing fruit. Despite the losing streak, their pitching staff has made the unprecedented leap from 14th ranked in the AL a year ago to fourth, shaving almost two runs off their team ERA. And the much anticipated arrival of third baseman Evan Longoria has lived up to the advanced billing. Longoria will take part in the All-Star Game and the Home Run Derby as a rookie.
With the Rays coming back to the pack, several teams still remain in the hunt for the post-season with roughly 70 games to go. Boston, the defending World Series and consensus pick to retain that title, has been without top of the rotation starter Curt Schilling for the entire season following shoulder surgery and slugging DH David Ortiz since the first week in June with a left wrist injury. Yet, thanks the infusion of youth in Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, the Sox continue to roll along their 57 wins at the break is tied with the Angels for the most in the American League. The Yankees sit six games back of Boston which is about right. The fact that they sit in fourth in the Wild Card race means that they'll be active as the trade deadline approaches with their streak of 13-straight post-seasons now on the line. For the Blue Jays, the return of Cito Gaston to the dugout has provided an offensive elixir, but the rash of injuries that plagued the team a year ago has returned and the six teams ahead of them in the Wild Card means that October baseball won't be coming to the Rogers Centre this season.
American League Central:
The AL Central has been topsy-turvy all season long. The pre-season prognosticators though this would be a two-horse race with the Tigers and Indians heading up the class. At the break, it's the surprising White Sox leading the never-surprising Twins by a game-and-a-half. The Tigers have run hot and cold all season to date and have hovered around .500, not more than a couple games above or below. The biggest disappointment has to be the Indians, a playoff team a year ago, currently 12 games under .500 and in the basement of the division.
American League West:
Over in the AL West, the Angels remain the class of the division, sitting six games clear of the always competitive Athletics. Mike Scioscia's club might be baseball's most balanced and a good shot to meet the Red Sox in the ALCS in the middle of October. Next to the Indians, no team has disappointed more than the Mariners who were picked by many to challenge the Angels for the division. At the break, having already fired manager John McLaren, the M's are 22 games under .500 with the third-worst record in MLB.
National League East:
Over in the National League East, Pat Gillick's Phillies sit juts a half game ahead of the Mets, whose first half shortcomings have been well documented and cost manager Willie Randolph his job. Watch for these two teams to be active in the two weeks leading up to the trade deadline at the end of this month. Heading into the break, the Mets are baseball's hottest team having reeled off nine straight wins and whatever problems this team had under Randolph seem to have been corrected under Jerry Manuel. With the Marlins also just 1.5 games back, this division remains up for grabs although the Mets seemed poised to run away with it.
National League Central
The Cubs, 100 years since they last won the World Series, remain on course to end that legendary drought and lead the Central by 4.5 games over the Cardinals and five ahead of the Brewers. Lou Piniella's club has the best record in the senior circuit but his practice off wearing out his bullpen might be the only thing that keeps the Cubbies from playing in the Fall Classic. As usual, Tony LaRussa has his team playing over their heads and, unless they trade for some pitching (A.J. Burnett?), likely means they won't make the playoffs, The team to keep an eye on is the Brewers, who sent a tremor through the division by trading for 2007 AL Cy Young award winner C.C. Sabathia. Combined with ace Ben Sheets and with some of the best young hitters in the game, the Brewers could make a lot of noise in the second half.
National League West:
The NL West remains the weakest division in the game. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers are just a game apart heading into the break, but both are below .500 and are horrible road teams. The wild card in this whole equation is Dodgers manager Joe Torre, with his proven track record and ability to make good players great. It says here that Hollywood's will take this division when all is said and done.
As for individual performances, there have been several noteworthy. Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton's story is what movies are made of, and his return from drug abuse to become a Triple Crown threat in the American League is awe inspiring. Angels closer Francisco (K-Rod) Rodriguez enters the break with a Major League-record 38 saves and is on pace for 65 which would shatter the Major League record by eight. Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay has thrown seven complete games (2 shutouts) in the first half, which are more than the pitching staffs of 29 teams. Atlanta's Chipper Jones flirted with a .400 average over the first 12 weeks of the season. He enters the break with a MLB-best .376 average after injuries have slowed him. Phillies slugger Ryan Howard leads the Majors with 28 home runs and a mind-numbing 129 strikeouts. And the Diamondbacks Brandon Webb's 13 wins are more than any other pitcher in either league and he appears to be on target to win his second NL Cy Young award in three seasons.
With 11 weeks remaining in the season and the playoff picture still very pixelated, a lot can happen between now and October. The July 31st non-waiver trade deadline will be the next event to bring things into clearer focus. And the 'Dog Days' of August also lie ahead, something that the young stars of the game will have to deal with. But all in all, if the second half of the 2008 is as entertaining as the first half, baseball fans, myself included, should be in for a hell of a ride. Enjoy!!
