The Jays need to go on an unlikely tear if they are going to have any hope of reaching the playoffs.
As I've written many times this season, and my booth-mates have commented on from time to time, the Blue Jays remain a long shot to catch the Red Sox, Yankees or Twins/White Sox to claim the fourth and final playoff spot.
Sunday's tough loss to the Red Sox, a game that they led twice but let slip away, could very well be the final nail in the 2008 coffin. A.J. Burnett pitched well enough to win, if you remove the third inning and the second pitch of the seventh inning. And in a rare show of his new-found maturity under Cito Gaston, Burnett stepped up in the post-game media scrum and took full blame for the loss, stating plainly, "We needed this win and I didn't get it for us. We've got to move on but this game was one me." Perhaps this change in attitude will come in handy next year with the Rangers, Yankees, White Sox or whoever else makes a pitch for the enigmatic right-hander after he opts out of his current contract, which is well within his rights.
So, now it's on to St. Petersburg, Florida to face the Rays in Tropicana Field, a place where the Jays have never played well, even before the Devil was exorcized from Tampa's nickname. Removing a three-game Rays sweep of the Jays when the teams met at Disney World earlier this season, the Jays have played only .500 ball in the Tampa area going back to July of 2004. And the majority of those games were played against one of the worst teams in all of baseball.
That can no longer be said of the Rays. Manager Joe Maddon has taken this collection of high draft picks, thrown them into the pot with cast-offs from other organizations, and come up with a recipe for success. Sure the Rays have benefited from choosing near or at the top of the first round, which has landed them the likes of Evan Longoria (2006), Delmon Young (2003, later traded for Matt Garza), B.J. Upton (2002), and Rocco Baldelli (2000). Who knows how better the Rays could be if Josh Hamilton (chosen first overall in 1999) hadn't succumbed to his inner demons and lost several years due to drug abuse.
Several educated pundits have been expecting the Rays to fall from their lofty perch atop the ultra-competitive A.L. East, but it hasn't happened yet. In fact in games within their own division, they hold a 28-19 record, including going a perfect six-for-six hosting the Red Sox, and winning nine-of-12 overall against the Jays this season. When they lost the final seven games heading into the All-Star break, many said it would be the beginning of their demise and their inexperience was finally showing. Not so fast. The Rays went back to their winning ways in the second half, winning 24 out of 35, the best record on the Majors. As the Jays roll into town for a three-game series, the Rays hold a comfortable 4.5 game lead in the East and are tied with the Angels for the American League's best record.
So with every loss, while the regular season schedule dwindles down, the Jays margin for error gets slimmer and slimmer. They are at the point where they must win every series - and toss in a couple of sweeps - to have any hope of contending. ESPN.com uses a formula to measure a team's chances of making the post-season. They give the Blue Jays a 0.1% chance to win the East and 1.6% to win the wild card, which seems about right with the strength of their remaining schedule and the fact that they will, basically, have to run the table to play October baseball. The Rays, on the other hand, are listed at 76.4% to win the East and 19.5% to win the Wild Card, numbers that should shift after the Jays leave town and head to New York for their final appearance at Yankee Stadium on the weekend.
As usual, anything is possible, but by this time next, the Jays should be starting to get used to their role as a spoiler.
A head scratcher
So the player to be named later in the Jose Bautista trade from the Pirates turns out to be catcher Robinzon Diaz. Before this season, Diaz was considered one of the Jays' top 10 prospects but an ankle injury slowed his progress and he's been passed on the catching depth chart by J.P. Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman. It's still a steep price to pay for Bautista, who was no longer in the plans of one of the worst teams in baseball and will become a utility player if and when Scott Rolen returns from his shoulder woes.
