Shawn Marcum is lost for 2009. Here are four paths that the Jays could follow this off-season.
What's that they say about the best laid plans?
Just over two weeks ago as the Blue Jays reeled off 10-straight wins against some of the best teams in the American League, optimism was at its highest point during the Ricciardi era, which historians will claim began in 2002. Not that the truly bright minds believed that the team would make a run for the playoffs this season - too many games were frittered away in April - but under new/old manager Cito Gaston, the team was finally showing how good they could be. They had the best pitching in the game and the offence was finally starting to click on all cylinders. All that was needed, really, was a full season under Cito and there was no reason to believe that we shouldn't put aside some time in October 2009 for some playoff baseball at the Rogers Centre.
Then somebody opened the roof and the injury bug flew in. Already girding for the likely departure of number two starter A.J. Burnett to opt-out free agency, no one needed to see number three starter Shaun Marcum leave three batters into the third with tightness in his right forearm and numbness into his fingers. A subsequent MRI revealed that Marcum would need ligament replacement aka Tommy John surgery and would be lost to the team until the spring of 2010.
Ricciardi had already stated that the team will not break the bank to bring Burnett back into the fold. So, the fact that someone else will back the Brink's truck up to A.J.'s front door, the starting rotation for your Toronto Blue Jays on opening day 2009 will look like this: Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, David Purcey, (insert name here), and (insert another name). Those two holes could be filled by Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen, but with both recovering from surgeries to repair labrum injuries in their throwing shoulders, neither can expect to contribute until they show up in Dunedin next February and pitch to live hitting.
With all this in mind, it appears that the Jays have four options to fill the massive holes that the rotation now has:
1: OPEN THE VAULT AND RE-SIGN BURNETT
There's no reason to believe this can't happen - within reason. We finally saw what all the fuss was about with Burnett leading the American League in strikeouts while reeling off a career-high 18 wins. To get him back into Blue Jays blue in 2009 will likely cost four years and $60 million. And what would the trickle-down affect be, first with ace Halladay, and on a payroll that is already pushing $100 million dollars. Several other Jays are due large raises next season, as per their current deals, and if this happens, I guess we'll truly find just how deep the pockets of Rogers Communications really are. And judging by the big numbers on my monthly cable/internet/home phone bill every month they are pretty deep.
2: SIGN MID-RANGE PROVEN FREE AGENTS
This is the option that I favour. After scouring over the list of potential free agents this off-season, two names caught my eye: Ryan Dempster and Derek Lowe. With the monies saved if Burnett bolts, and with veterans Frank Thomas, Gregg Zaun, Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs finally off the books, these two right-handers are viable. Both are going to take place in the post-season this year, and both are the type of low-maintenance veterans that would fit in quite nicely behind Halladay. What might the cost be? Having never negotiated a contract I'm guessing but, ideally, a pair of two-year deals worth $18-20 million for Dempster, and $15-17 million for Lowe. Dempster, coming off a season that saw him win 17 games with a sub-3.00 ERA will likely have a lot of suitors and he may get priced out of the Blue Jays range. But he has stated in the past that he'd like to pitch for Canada's only remaining major league team and maybe he could give the Jays the old home country discount. Lowe is probably more viable. His current four year, $36 million deal with the Dodgers expires after the end of the World Series and he might be willing to come back to the A.L. East if gets the right sales pitch.
3: START TRADING PROSPECTS FOR QUALITY ARMS
Ricciardi has been very leery about dealing his ever growing list of minor league prospects. But I've always been an advocate of dealing "what might be" for "what already is". No one likes to deal away young players who could someday come back to haunt you, but as the old cliché goes, "Desperate times require desperate measures". And remember, to get quality one must offer quality. J.P. has not had to go this route during his tenure running the Jays, but now appears the time.
4: STAY THE COURSE AND PLAN FOR A HEALTHY 2010
In my mind this is a tough sell for a Toronto sporting public that has waited over four decades for the Maple Leafs to win the Stanley Cup, and 15 years since Joe Carter's walk-off, World Series winner in 1993. Ricciardi's "I don't feel we have to do anything" speech last week after Marcum was diagnosed made a lot of us in the broadcast booth shake our heads. He can't seriously think they can contend in 2009 with what they currently have in the rotation, unless his ultimate plan, based upon how the hitting took flight after the coaching changes this season, is to load up on offence and slug their way to the post-season. And, once again, based upon his lukewarm trading resume, this seems unlikely.
In the end, two straight seasons of devastating injuries have left the Toronto Blue Jays as the sixth best team in an American League where only four teams get to play in October. Patience will be asked for and received from those of you continually fill up the blogs and line up outside the Rogers Centre hours before the doors open. As for the rest of you fringe fans, it'll be another off-season of "wait and see".
Never before have the Jays been so close and yet so far away from the playoffs.
