The Jays likely can't afford A.J. Burnett, but hopefully he'll realize the best situation for him is to stay put in T.O.
To no one's surprise, A.J. Burnett triggered the opt-out clause in his Blue Jays contract, and is back on the open market. Where this goes from here is too early to tell, but much will be written and opined on the subject before his signature is on his next contract, either with a new team for a lot more money than he probably deserves, or with the Blue Jays for whatever it takes within their budget.
So I'm going to get a jump on this and give you my strong opinion on this subject, then I'll not write about this again until this comes to a conclusion.
In 2008, Blue Jay fans - along with the rest of baseball - finally got to see what the fuss was all about: career-highs in starts (34), wins (18), innings (221.1), and strikeouts (231) which led the American League. After watching him struggle through his first two seasons due to injuries, this season I came to the ballpark every time he started believing that something magical might occur.
But as good as his final numbers ended up being they didn't look so hot in the third week of June when the Blue Jays were sitting in the basement of the A.L. East, four games under .500 and fading fast. They tied the can to lame-duck manager John Gibbons with Cito Gaston taking over the club and, in the process, lighted a fire under Burnett. From that point on, A.J. made 19 starts - winning 12 - with an ERA of 3.12 and just under 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Outside of Roger Clemens' two seasons with the Jays, Roy Halladay's 22-win Cy Young season, and Dave Stieb's 18 win, 2.93 ERA, no-hit season, no Blue Jays' starter was more dominant. For that, Cito must get most of the praise.
Finally, Burnett wasn't going to get away with his loose cannon, juvenile ways. The days of Mohawk haircuts, oddly cropped facial hair and post-game shaving cream pies were over. Although it was never spoken of to anyone in the media, my feeling was that the new/old manager had a one-on-one with Burnett and told him to start acting like a veteran.
So, now Burnett arrives at the crossroads of his uneven career and some serious soul searching lay ahead.
If he stays in Toronto, there is a level of comfort that he clearly needs. The manager keeps him in line, he pitches in front of an excellent bullpen that keeps him in the running to win games after he hands the ball over to them. He'll never have as good a relationship as he currently enjoys with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, and, most importantly in my mind, he doesn't have to be "The Man." Roy Halladay plays that part in Toronto and gladly shoulders all the inherent pressures that come with being an ace, especially in the toughest division in baseball. For him to stay with the Blue Jays, he's probably going to have to leave a substantial amount of money on the table. And this is where we will find out what Burnett is all about. I sincerely doubt he's going to find a better situation south of the border than he'll get with the Jays.
If, on the other hand, Burnett decides to take the money and run, it may be a classic case of "careful what you wish for." The big money teams will all be lining up for his services and this is where his fragile psyche will be exposed.
Obviously the two New York teams, both who finished out of the playoffs and are moving into new ballparks in 2009, will be backing up the Brinks truck. The Mets, who originally drafted him in the eighth round back in the June 1985 draft, would be the best situation for Burnett as, like the Jays, he wouldn't be expected to be the ace. Johan Santana is that animal, especially after he went undefeated (8-0) after the All-Star break with a 2.17 ERA in his first season in the National League. Burnett is good, but he's not that good. The Yankees are certainly more desperate to make it back to the post-season, but that will put a lot of pressure on Burnett, pressure that I doubt he would be able to handle. And if thinks that the Toronto media can be difficult, the New York media is much larger and more biting, just ask Randy Johnson.
The Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Nationals and Orioles also have the funds to reel him and, of those teams, Washington and Baltimore, not too far from his home would make the most sense for him, not only for real estate reasons, but because they aren't expected to win in the near future and he wouldn't be expected to lead them to the promised land. Pressure packed situations is not what Burnett is looking for.
In closing, I will say this. The Blue Jays, with Burnett riding shotgun to Halladay, have a better chance at finally returning to the playoffs than if he takes the money and runs elsewhere, especially if he signs on with another A.L. East team. Even then, they are still the third best team in the division and other moves will still be need to be made. Without him, they will have no shot, unless CC Sabathia shows up in Dunedin in February with Manny Ramirez.
Judging by the annual spin that J.P. Ricciardi has already started to lay on us from the General Manager's meetings, I don't feel a lot of confidence that the Jays are going to end up on the right side of this.
