If we’ve gleaned anything from spring training this year, it may be this: life without Roy Halladay wouldn’t be so bad.
That’s not to suggest Halladay is a goner, far from it. But his future as a Blue Jay will be determined within the next 16 months, so it’s worth an opinion.
And here’s mine.
I’m loath to see him play elsewhere. And my limited sense of Halladay (he rarely opens up to us media types) tells me he’d prefer to remain loyal to the Blue Jays – at a price, of course – than increase the odds of a World Series ring as a short-term hurler on a top-tier team.
The man is a dream employee.
His bosses love him because he’s always good for 17 or 18 wins. His customers love him for the same reason. And broadcasters love him because his day-game assignments guarantee we make the six o'clock to LaGuardia.
This spring, a revelation: if Halladay is traded in the middle of next season or decides to test free agency soon after, the Blue Jays – as the folks at All-State used to say – are in good hands.
For this, we can thank two kids who haven’t thrown a single pitch in the big leagues: Brett Cecil and Brad Mills.
You’ll see both twirling for the Blue Jays at some point this year (Mills first, Cecil later). Both are left-handers. Both are destined to become reliable members of the rotation. More importantly, both are inexpensive (a critical point in these tight times).
For the sake of argument, let’s pretend Halladay signs a huge contract with, say, the Mets, prior to the 2011 season. Here’s how the first three in the Blue Jays rotation would look:
1. Dustin McGowan
2. Shaun Marcum
3. Jesse Litsch
Factor in a more experienced David Purcey, a healthy Casey Janssen (assuming they don't want to keep him in the bullpen), a guy considered Canada’s "ace" at the WBC (Scott Richmond), and quite possibly a better-late-then-never Ricky Romero. Now, throw the aforementioned Cecil and Mills into the equation. Suddenly, the Blue Jays seem quite rich in good young arms.
Naturally, injury - and even failure - might trim that list of nine. You still only need five to fill a rotation.
Feeling better about life without Halladay?
Now, say the Jays do what Cleveland did. They trade their ace (CC Sabathia) to a playoff contender (Milwaukee) and get that contenders' number one prospect in return (outfielder Matt LaPorta).
Is Halladay worth another organization’s top pitching prospect? That, and then some.
Better now?
I’m not giving away secrets here, but you’ll see Halladay throw more change-ups this year (even though, in his own words, it’s the pitch with which he has the least confidence). Here’s why: If Halladay wants to pitch into his 40s (he’ll turn 32 in May), he’ll need to lean on more off-speed stuff when the zip on his sinker and cutter dulls with age.
Why not hone the soft stuff now?
And when he’s pitching at 40, my guess is he’ll be doing so with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Still, no fan of this team should be worried if he isn’t.
