For the first time in a long time the Blue Jays arrive at Fenway Park as the better team.
Who in their right mind could have foreseen the Toronto Blue Jays, chosen by many to finish a solid fourth (and even fifth by Sports Illustrated) in the ultra-competitive American League East, rolling into Fenway Park with a 3.5 game lead over the Red Sox?
If you have your hand up, put it down. You sir, are a liar.
The Jays first big test came last week, and sure the Yankees took two of three but it could have gone the other way. Former Jay A.J. Burnett was beat around in front of 43,000 at the 'House That Ted Bought'. Scott Richmond's balloon finally broke as the Yankees jumped on his average pitches and lined extra-base hits all over the Rogers Centre for an 8-2 trouncing. And then Brian Tallet continued to show that his days as a reliever may be finally behind him and matched mega-millionaire CC Sabathia pitch-for-pitch in a game that the Yankees would ultimately win thanks to a Hideki Matsui bomb off Jesse Carlson. The first loss of a series at home; but did anyone really think they would go the whole season and win every series in Toronto?
If you have your hand up, put it down. You sir, are a liar.
But, once again, instead of going in to a tail spin, these resilient birds came back on the weekend and took four straight from the White Sox, using a combination of solid starting pitching, stingy defence and clutch hits. The continued contributions from rookie starters Brett Cecil and Robert Ray - only in the majors due to injuries to Jesse Litsch and Ricky Romero - have been a blessing and both will continue to be run out there. And all the while, Roy Halladay, despite not having his best stuff on some occasions, has won eight of his first nine starts and is the best pitcher in baseball not named Zack Greinke.
Now a real test as Toronto arrives in Boston without the luxury of having its top two starters pitch in the three-game series. Halladay and Richmond won't toe the rubber until next weekend in Atlanta as interleague, once again, rears its' ugly head.
Instead, it will be Tallet, Cecil and Ray (with the Red Sox sluggers probably salivating at the prospects). But this is not exactly a clicking-on-all-cylinders Boston offence. David Ortiz, normally the lynch-pin of many multi-run rallies, is hitting just .208 ahead of the series and has yet to hit a home run through the first 38 games. Age and injury have finally caught up to Big Papi and he has contributed very little to date. Kevin Youkilis is on a rehab assignment after an oblique strain - the injury of choice in '09 - and is expected to miss the series. Defending A.L. MVP Dustin Pedroia has also been slowed by injury, a groin strain in his case, and isn't close to 100 percent. Manager Terry 'Tito' Francona has to be thanking his lucky stars for the contributions from Jason Bay who has picked up most of the slack and leads the BoSox with 11 homeruns and 40 runs batted in. A complete opposite to the man he replaced -- Manny Ramirez -- Bay has become a fan favourite in Beantown and is in the final year of his current contract.
Much like the Sox missing both Halladay and Richmond, the Jays will miss Red Sox ace Josh Beckett and injured No. 2 man Daisuke Matsuzaka in this series -- so the chasm between the starters in this series isn't as great as one would think. The key will be how Cecil and Ray, with a grand total of six career major league starts under their belts, react to their first appearance in the band box known as Fenway Park, although based upon their performances to this point, these are a couple of cool kids and it bodes well for the future of the Toronto rotation.
This series could very well come down to the bats, where the Jays continue to dominate at the plate and can come-from-behind on a daily basis to pull wins out of the jaws of defeat. Aaron Hill and Adam Lind have turned themselves into two of the top young hitters in the game and have become bigger contributors to the success of the Blue Jays than their highly-paid three and four hitters. While Alex Rios has shown signs of coming out of his funk - .299 AVG, 5 HR, 14 RBI in his last 26 games - Vernon Wells remains a head-scratching mystery.
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Jamie Campbell had me go through his various splits to try and pinpoint what the problem is. Wells is a vastly better hitter on the road (.341) than at home (.176) and his situational stats show that he's having trouble hitting with men on base:
Jamie's theory, while discussing these numbers with analyst Darrin Fletcher, is that Wells' problems begin once the opposing pitcher is in the stretch. Without the full wind out, Vernon's timing isn't good and the stats spell that out.
Hopefully a trip to Fenway Park, where Wells have 10 HR and 38 RBI in 68 career appearances, will be the tonic to get him into his first groove of 2009. The fact that the Jays have done so well without his usual offensive output really speaks well to how good the Jays are currently playing as a team. The contributions from the other spots in the line-up have been outstanding and a big factor why the team that no one gave a shot sits with five more wins than the Red Sox.
Sure there are 121 games left to play, but I'm starting to believe. And I'm sure finding it a challenge to finally write positive columns after years of looking at the glass half empty.
