Vernon Wells and his .188 average with runners in scoring position has a lot to do with the Jays poor display this season. But not all the blame should fall at his feet.
I've been wracking my brain, lately, trying to figure out what has happened to Vernon Wells?
Here's a guy who, from 2002-06, averaged 28 home runs, 97 RBIs, 37 doubles, a .288 average, 176 hits and 91 runs. Based on pure numbers, his 139 home runs ranked 10th among AL sluggers while his 487 RBIs put him seventh on the list of producers over the half decade.
Those numbers, over that five-season, 764-game sample led the front office to lock up the then 27-year-old Gold Glove centre fielder with a back-loaded, seven-year, $126-million contract extension. The breakdown of the deal saw Wells make a low base salary over the first three seasons, giving the team financial flexibility to build around him to hopefully contend, but it would mushroom significantly over the final four seasons. Wells is scheduled to make $23 million in 2011, and $21 million in each of the final three years ending after 2014.
I know ... easy there, get down off the ledge. At the time, the dollar figure and term made sense, seeing the numbers being thrown at the likes of Barry Zito, Alfonso Soriano and Torii Hunter. All were young, had enjoyed success early in their careers and teams were looking to lock them up for a good chunk of service time. Sure, in hindsight, the final four years of Wells' deal now look horribly out of whack. I don't see any reason to believe that Vernon will suddenly return to past form between now and 2014. The fact that the output will be nowhere near the payout is, in my mind, why the fans are being so venomous in person and on the post-game call-in show.
But let's give this a closer look before going all haywire and start dialing Mike Wilner's nightly therapy hotline.
Since scrawling his 'VW' on that overly generous deal on Dec. 18, 2006, Wells has rarely been healthy. I'm not using this as an excuse, just trying to make sense of the steps that led him to the worst season-long slump in his now eighth full season at the Skydome/Rogers Centre. You may remember that in 2007, his season was cut short after left shoulder problems -- a cyst caused by a torn labrum -- needed surgery, a problem that dogged him for most of the season and saw his average drop by over 50 points and his home run total finish below 20 for the first time. More significant injuries in '08: six weeks into the season he fractured his left wrist diving for a ball in Cleveland. He was back in the line-up less than a month later, but had to be shut down just before the all-star break for another month after straining his left hamstring. All told, Wells missed a career-high 54 games. Then this past spring training, before exhibition games even started, he strained the same hamstring and didn't get into his first action until March 20, appearing in just 11 Grapefruit League games.
Now, I'm no doctor -- nor do I play one on TV -- but three injuries to the left side of his body over three years leads me to figure that they have played a significant role in the sudden demise of his offensive prowess. The shoulder and wrist probably have a lot to do with him constantly flailing at that low and outside off-speed pitch. Once he starts the swing, there may not be enough strength to hold up. Not sure what the left hamstring problems have to do with all this but, like I said, I'm no doctor nor am I a hitting instructor. Throw all this into the cerebral stew of a guy that doesn't show a lot of emotion and it can come off, in the witnessing eyes of the ticket-buying fans that he doesn't care. Then sprinkle in the odd mental gaffe, like the one pulled in Texas last week where he lost track of the outs and almost got doubled off after jogging towards third on a pop-up. If a guy has lost some of his game due to injury, that's one thing. But I shake my head in disbelief when a player can't keep his head in the game. Didn't we all get enough of that with the guy who stood to Wells' left in the outfield?
Now, don't get me wrong, I'm as frustrated as you when it comes to Wells. I've seen his entire career unfold from my perch in the broadcast booth. I remember his major league-leading 215 hits in 2003, a season in which he set personal highs in every offensive category. I remember a walk-off home run off Mariano Rivera, a rarity against the Yankees' super closer. And I remember him chasing down balls in the gap that only Devon White would have claimed for outs. I guess when you've been that great, the fall to mediocrity can look all the more dramatic. There was a time when the guy was the total package.
This 2009 season, which began with such promise despite Wells and the departed Alex Rios having little to do with the 27-14 start, has been caught in a horrible downward spiral for over 15 weeks now. Look at it this way: they've had 12 losing streaks of three-plus games over those 15 weeks. On the flip side of that, the Jays have had winning streaks of three-plus games only four times. The math tells you that they were going moonwalk through the division like a Thriller era Michael Jackson.
With 59 wins and just 29 games left to play, there's a good chance that the Jays may not break the 70-wins threshold, something that seemed impossible back in the heady days of mid-May. Yes, Wells and his .188 average with runners in scoring position had something to do with that. But not all the blame should fall at his feet. And don't blame Wells for his contract. He didn't make that offer to himself, he only signed it.
None of this makes his sub-standard performance any more palatable. I'm just trying to point out that you should think before you boo.
