Scott Carson

Stats man Scott Carson is now in his 18th season as "third man in the booth" during Blue Jays telecasts.

The big numbers put up by Wells & Co. will need to continue when the big boys come to town.

The Jays' season will be decided over the next 40 games, 33 of which come against above-.500 teams.

Forty-eight games into the schedule, the Toronto Blue Jays are tied for third with the Boston Red Sox in the ultra-competitive American League East.

Now the real fun begins.

To say the team has over-achieved might be an understatement, but a closer examination of how the team got to this point (stellar starting pitching & most home runs in the majors) reveals the trend that the Jays have beaten the expected teams and struggled against the anointed contenders.

When the season began it was widely reported and agreed that the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Twins and Angels would be the top teams vying for post-season play. The Jays have played all those teams to date (with the exception of the Yankees) and its record sits at an inglorious 4-13. That means that against the rest they are 23-9, not too shabby.

But beginning Friday at the Rogers Centre things get exponentially tougher.

The Jays start the stretch against the laughingly poor Baltimore Orioles, a team that if they don't sweep, especially with the top three starters going, it will be considered a disappointment. But as soon as the O's leave town things really start heating up. When the team comes out on the other end of this crucial stretch on July 11 and takes a break for the All-Star game, where the team stands will be public knowledge.

Breaking down the next 40 looks like this:

Home games: 24

Versus AL East teams: 18

Interleague: 15

Versus plus-.500 teams: 33

The next block of games will provide a true litmus test as to where team sits in the grand scheme of things. To date, the Blue Jays have played better than many, including yours truly, expected. They have embraced the offensive preachings/teachings of Cito Gaston and Dwayne Murphy and have pitched better than originally advertised, especially following Roy Halladay's departure. But I can't help but look at that 4-13 record against the contenders to see that they aren't quite ready to wrestle outside its own weight class. They beat the teams they should, but fall well short against the superior squads. I guess that means they're stuck in the middle, but far better than expected. At this point, seeing as it is a rebuilding year, most should be happy with that.

ROSTER DILEMMA AWAITS

The off-day on Thursday allowed the Jays to skip the fifth spot in the rotation, but somebody will be needed in that hole next Tuesday night against the first place Tampa Bay Rays. Jesse Litsch, currently rehabbing at Las Vegas (AAA) would be the popular choice, but he can't be removed from the 60-day disabled list until June 4 at the earliest, plus he hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire in the Pacific Coast League (11 earned runs in 12.2 innings). Plus, there isn't a reason to rush him back and cause a setback. Another choice would be Brian Tallet, also rehabbing at triple-A Las Vegas. He, too, isn't blowing anybody away (nine hits, eight earned runs in 1.1 IP). That leaves a couple of youngsters who dipped their toes into the MLB pond a year ago: right-hander Robert Ray and left-hander Brad Mills.

Neither would be needed for more than a couple of starts unless they blow hitters away. Another choice might be Marc Rzepczynski but, like Litsch and Tallet, is still trying to get up to speed after fracturing a finger on his pitching hand near the end of spring training.

Another roster move is in the works when Travis Snider's 15-day DL stint runs out this weekend. It would be expected that Snyder, who was red-hot when he came up with a wrist problem on May 15, would go back into the line-up in right field but that would create a domino effect that would likely see Edwin Encarnacion or Lyle Overbay see some bench time. Jose Bautista, currently leading the A.L. in home runs, can play a number of positions. It will be interesting to see how Cito Gaston plays it.