2010 MLB playoff previews

With the 2010 MLB Playoffs upon us, statsman Scott Carson looks at five burning questions heading into each post-season match-up.

With former Blue Jay Roy Halladay and Toronto native Joey Votto both making their playoff debuts, question marks surrounding the Yankees rotation and Braves manager Bobby Cox making his post-season swan song, there is no shortage of story lines.

ALDS Previews

Rays (96-66) | Rangers (90-72)

(Rays won season series 4-2)

FIVE KEY QUESTIONS

1. Who's stars are healthiest?

As the 2010 regular season came to a close, the top producers in each team's lineup – Rays 3B Evan Longoria and Rangers LF Josh Hamilton – were far from healthy.

Longoria missed the final 10 games with a strained left quadriceps and the Rays lost five of those games. He says he'll be good to go to start the series. Hamilton, on the other hand, missed 28 games this season thanks to his right knee, right patella tendinitis, lower back stiffness and bruised ribs (which caused him to miss 24 of the final 27 games). Both offences revolve around these players.

2. Will home runs be the difference?

The middle of the Rangers' lineup – Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero and Nelson Cruz – have the power to go yard at any time, and the Rays' starters served up the second most bombs (129) in the American League. The flipside is that the Rays' deep bullpen served up the fifth fewest home runs. Rays' Game 1 starter David Price can set the tone for this series, and other Tampa Bay starters, by keeping the ball in play. But that will be more of a concern for the Rays the longer this series goes.

3. Is David Price better than Cliff Lee?

Being left-handed is about the only thing that these two aces have in common. Lee is the strike-thrower in the game, having walked only 18 of the 843 batters he faced this season with the Mariners and Rangers. And with all that strike-throwing, Lee only gave up 16 home runs. Surprisingly, Price gave up one fewer home run, and has turned into one of the top power left-handers in the game. And his playoff experience from '08 will be an asset this time around.

4. Can Tampa Bay's speed be shut down?

This could be a problem for the Rangers if B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford get on consistently. Rangers' catchers only threw out 19.4 per cent of would-be base stealers this season, while the Rays stole at a 87.5 per cent clip, and were successful on eight of nine attempts in their season series this season. Bengie Molina will likely be their best option, having thrown out 23.8 per cent of stealers since coming over to the Rangers in early July.

5. Which manager will push the right buttons?

Tampa Bay's Zen Master Joe Maddon has never read ‘The Book.' He manages by his gut; most times it works, and he is never afraid to try something different based upon a hunch at the time. Rangers boss Ron Washington survived an early off-field crisis and his team stood tall behind him. He's not a technician, but isn't afraid to force the issue either, with favourable results.

Maddon's previous playoff experience gives him the edge.

STATSMAN'S NON-BINDING PREDICTION: Rays in four.

Team speed and their uncanny ability to score by any means possible will be the difference.

Twins (94-68) | Yankees (95-67)

(Yankees won season series 4-2)

FIVE KEY QUESTIONS

1. Can the Yankees rotation win three games?

Make no mistake: CC Sabathia is the best starter in the American League…at home. Since joining the Yankees, the portly southpaw is 20-5 in 31 career home starts in Yankee Stadium II. Unfortunately, his first start will be in decidedly cooler Target Field. If he doesn't win the opener, the Yankees could be in big trouble with the rest of the rotation surrounded by question marks.

2. Will home field favour the Twins?

Most definitely.

Spacious Target Field could be a problem for the Yankees outfielders, especially if they decide to go with Austin Kearns over Brett Gardner in left. The defending World Champs will also need big defensive performances from the ageing left side of their infield. Yankees starters led the A.L. in home runs allowed this season so starting on the road might actually be to their advantage.

3. Is the chasm between the catchers too great?

Joe Mauer is one of the top catchers in the game while Jorge Posada has rapidly fallen into the depths of mediocrity behind the plate. His inability to get on the same page with his pitchers slows down the game and opponents with speed run at will on him. Offensively is no contest as well.

Posada hit just .230 after the break and drove in only 57 runs this season, 34 less than a year ago. Despite missing 24 games due to injury, Mauer still drove in 75 runs and hit well above .300 for the third straight season.

4. How much will the absence of Justin Morneau hurt the Twins?

Not as much as you might think. After losing their perennial MVP candidate to a concussion in early July, the Twins went an A.L.-best 49-29. Michael Cuddyer filled in at first, while Delmon Young picked up the offensive slack and finished the season with a career-high 112 RBI. And remember, the Twins also played the entire season without closer Joe Nathan, one of the best in the game and still posted the A.L.'s third-best record. This is a resilient team with the unflappable Ron Gardenhire steering the ship.

5. Will Derek Jeter conjure up past playoff magic?

This is the wild card in this whole scenario. The Yankees' captain embarks on his 14th quest for baseball's Holy Grail. After failing miserably in the Yankees first-round oust in 2007, going just 3-for-17, Jeter led the team with 22 hits in 15 games last season en route to the title. While he's starting to show some wear at 36, he finished strong with a .342 average in his final 19 games, getting at least one hit in all but one contest. If he can carry that through the series, the Yankees could be a handful.

STATSMAN'S UNBINDING PREDICTION: Twins in five.

The Yankees rotation is in tatters and home field strongly favours Minnesota.

NLDS PREVIEWS

Phillies (97-65) | Reds (91-71)

(Phillies won season series 5-2)

FIVE KEY QUESTIONS

1. Can Joey Votto be contained?

Just a year removed from an emotionally tough 2009 season, the Toronto-born first baseman finished in the Top 3 in all three Triple Crown categories. The Phillies had their hands full with Votto this season. He had at least one hit in each of their seven meetings, batting .393 with three home runs and six RBI. The Phillies kept Scott Rolen (.167), Brandon Phillips (.182) and Jay Bruce (.194) in check this season.

For the Reds to have any shot that will have to change drastically.

2. How will Roy Halladay handle his first playoff action?

Like every other time he takes to the mound: intense, prepared and locked-in. Halladay got his wish after asking the Blue Jays to move him to a playoff team. He took over the top slot in the rotation of the two-time defending N.L. champs, throwing a perfect game en route to 21 wins and a solid chance to become just the fifth pitcher to win the Cy Young Award in both leagues joining Gaylord Perry, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez.

Halladay has waited 13 seasons for this opportunity and he's unlikely to falter.

3. Can the Reds win at least one game?

Cincinnati is a decided underdog, having won the weak N.L. Central with just 90 wins, while the Phillies are trying to become the first N.L. team since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals to win three straight pennants.

The Phillies' first three starters – Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels – could very easily make this series a sweep. After Oswalt was acquired from the Astros, the three starters combined to go 21-7 with a 2.33 ERA. The Reds top three starters have no way to match that.

4. What if Brad Lidge suffers another meltdown?

The Phillies' closer has rode the roller coaster of success over the past three seasons, perfect in 48 total save opportunities en route to the ‘08 title, then crashing to earth a year later with 11 blown saves and a horribly bloated 7.21 ERA.

He didn't come all the way back this season, but was great down the stretch, saving 17 of 18 with a microscopic ERA of 0.73 and zero home runs allowed. Should Lidge have a relapse, Ryan Madson would be the first to come to the rescue.

5. Can Dusty Baker pull a rabbit out of his hat?

This is Johnnie B. Baker's fifth trip to the post-season with his third team. Another one of those Old School skippers, Baker is more about the hunch and less about matchups. Will that work against the powerful Phillies?

Unlikely, unless his team can steal one in the tough confines of Citizens Bank Park where the rough and tumble Philadelphia crowd can intimidate even the toughest veteran opponents. But if there's a veteran manager who can rally his troops to do the impossible, it's Dusty.

STATSMAN'S UNBINDING PREDICTION: Phillies in three.

The Giants will be hard pressed to score against the Phillies' top three starters.

Giants (92-70) | Braves (91-71)

(Braves won season series 4-3)

FIVE KEY QUESTIONS

1. Which team benefits from the extra rest to start the series?

The Giants might have hoped that the layoff between the end of the season and the start of their series was a day shorter after winning 20 of their final 30 games to track down and snatch the West title away from San Diego.

Momentum is clearly on their side as the Braves lost 16 of their final 31 and barely hung on to the Wild Card spot. The added rest allows both teams to get their rotations into some semblance of order after having to play out their schedules down the wire.

2. Who wins the battle of the super rookies?

Coming into this season, Braves outfielder Jason Heyward was the darling of the media. He didn’t disappoint, hitting three home runs in his first six games and appearing in the All-Star game at the tender age of 20 but a thumb injury cost him 18 days in the middle of the season.

Giants’ catcher Buster Posey didn’t make his season debut until late May, but he also made a big splash, getting six hits in his first nine at-bats and he almost equalled Heyward’s numbers despite playing in 17 fewer games.

Posey has the better chance at making a big first post-season impression.

3. Can "The Freak" be the pitching difference-maker?

Few pitchers have put up better numbers in their first four Major League seasons than Tim Lincecum’s 56-27 record, 145 fewer hits than innings pitched, 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. And despite his slender frame and violent pitching motion, Lincecum has been durable, averaging 33 starts and 221 innings per season while winning back-to-back Cy Young Awards the past two seasons.

Now he gets to pitch on baseball’s biggest stage. There’s no reason to think he won’t continue to dominate.

4. Who wins the battle of the bullpen?

Giants’ closer Brian Wilson led the Majors with 48 saves and averaged 11.2 K’s per nine innings. Down the stretch, Wilson saved 12 of his final 13 chances and held the opposition to a .143 average. The Braves counter with battle-tested Billy Wagner, set to retire at the end of the playoffs. He bounced back after missing parts of the previous two seasons with a bum elbow. He was almost unhittable down the stretch, allowing just one earned run over his last 19 appearances while striking out 33 hitters in just 18.2 innings. There’s no real advantage here.

5. Can Bobby Cox go out on top?

Unfortunately, his team lost momentum as the season went on. They let a three-game advantage over the Phillies on Sept. 1 slip away and they barely held on before clinching the Wild Card on the final day of the season. The Braves took four of the seven head-to-head meetings, but haven’t faced the Giants since early August, before they got hot to claim the West. Braves’ players genuinely love their retiring skipper, which they may use as a rallying point.

STATSMAN’S UNBINDING PREDICTION: Giants in four.

They have been playing winning ball for over a month and this isn’t likely to stop now.

Stats man Scott Carson is now in his 19th season as "third man in the booth" during Blue Jays telecasts.