Does Tim Lincecum hold the key to a Giants series victory?

BY SCOTT CARSON
sportsnet.ca

The 2010 MLB season is down to one series, and statsman Scott Carson looks at five burning questions heading into a surprising World Series match-up.

Youth vs. experience, surprising rookies, surging hitters and lights-out closers. Carson touches on these and other topics in his statistics-filled, in-depth previews. Enjoy.

World Series Preview

Rangers (97-76) vs. Giants (99-73)

FIVE KEY FACTORS

1. Aces: Youth vs. Experience

Game 1 sets the tone for the whole series. Not that Cliff Lee is exactly "Father Time", but he does have a few more rings around the trunk than Giants' X-Games ace Tim Lincecum. Lee's post-season numbers are getting compared to some of the legends of the fall. Brought in as a hired gun in consecutive stretch runs, he's been as good as it gets - 7-0, 1.26 ERA, .173 Opp Avg, only one HR allowed in eight playoff starts. Plus, he's averaged eight innings per start to keep the bullpen fresh at the end of a long year. If Lee leads the Rangers to their first-ever World Series title, he will cement his status as the top post-season pitcher of the new millennium. All Lincecum does is win, going head-to-head with the opponents' ace. Showed he was up to the task in the NLCS, besting Roy Halladay and reminding the baseball world who the two-time, defending NL Cy Young Award winner was. Giants will have their best shot if Lincecum does it again.

2. Pick your poison: Vlad Guerrero or Josh Hamilton

This dilemma will present itself many times over the course of the series for Giants' skipper Bruce Bochy. Hamilton's injured ribs aren't hampering his swing anymore as his four home runs against the Yankees proved. But when they decided to pitch around him, Vlad Guerrero was there to make them pay. And if he couldn't do it, then it was Nelson Cruz. Bochy must plot his course to get through the middle of the tough Texas line-up. He has seen enough of Vladdy from his Expos days to know that he's a tough guy to pitch around, with his hat-to-shoes strike zone. Watch for San Fran lefty specialist Javier Lopez to face Hamilton once a game and likely with runner(s) on. He may be the only one who gets to actually pitch to Hamilton.

3. Is there a homefield advantage?

The National League champions get to open at home for the first time since they started awarding the winner of the All-Star Game home field advantage. But playing on the road hasn't been a problem for the Rangers. Going back to the regular season, they have won 12 of their last 18 away from Arlington, including a 5-1 record in the postseason. Lee has started, and won, all three games on the road, allowing just two earned runs in 24 innings pitched. Once again proving the importance of the first game. The Giants haven't exactly overwhelmed their opponents at AT&T Park in these playoffs, going 3-2 and outscoring their opponents by a mere two runs. Lincecum didn't exactly dominate at home this season, going 9-7, 3.69 ERA, although the win total could have been higher with more than 3.5 runs of support.

4. How will the kids fare?

Giants' catcher Buster Posey is having one of those dazzling debuts that don't come around too often. Playing every inning to date in the postseason, he had a five-game hit streak to start the playoffs, but has since cooled getting held hitless in four of his last five. Hitting fourth in the batting order, the Rangers must continue to attack him, like the Phillies did, holding him to a .217 average in the LCS. Rangers' sophomore shortstop Elvis Andrus is also the man in the middle of the action. Batting .333 from the leadoff spot this post-season, he has set the table for the big boys behind him, stole seven in eight attempts and even chipped in three RBI. Both of these youngsters, neither of them yet 24-years-old, hold the keys to their respective offences: Andrus with his legs, Posey driving in runs.

5. Game, set, match: Brian Wilson vs. Neftali Feliz

This matchup could prove to be the biggest difference in the series. Giants' closer Brian Wilson has been a machine so far in the postseason. One win, five saves, 12 strikeouts in nine innings, just an unearned run allowed in seven appearances. And looking ahead, keep this stat in mind: the seven current Rangers hitters who have faced Wilson during their careers are a combined 0 for 19. Texas better hope they get to the Giants' underwhelming middle relief. Rangers' closer Neftali Feliz had a stumbling start to his first playoffs, allowing seven base runners among the first 14 hitters faced. But in the final two appearances against the Yankees in the LCS, Feliz struck out four - Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez. Seems like he finally found his sea legs.

STATSMAN'S UNBINDING PREDICTION: Giants in seven.

Their four-deep rotation, coupled with a lights-out closer, will bring the World Series to the City by the Bay.