MLB Forecast 2012: Chance of pain

Sick and tired of reading all those year-end stories littered with boring facts about events we already know the outcome to?

Hand in the air here too, so thankfully the New Year is bringing with it the opportunity to consume everyone's favourite brand of content: speculation and prediction.

With that, here’s a look at what and whom we think will create some big headlines over the next 12 months.

Check back in December.

THE YANKEES WILL STINK

Father Time has been creeping up on this team for some time now and in 2012, he finally pushes them off the cliff.

Just look at the birthdays New York’s geriatric all-stars will celebrate in 2012: Mariano Rivera (42), Bartolo Colon (39), Derek Jeter(38), A-Rod (35), Freddy Garcia (35), A.J. Burnett (35) and Andruw Jones (35).

In other words, the Yankees need big seasons at several key positions from players on the wrong side of 30 -- and in Rivera's case, a middle-aged man. And that's assuming they even keep Burnett, whom they've had a hard time even giving away in trade talks.

Can the Yankees possibly get another miraculous 300+ combined innings from Colon and Garcia? If not, look out.

The Yankees have also been unusually silent so far this off-season, leading some to wonder whether Hank Steinbrenner has tightened the purse strings. If that's indeed the case and the injury bug bites one or two of the aforementioned players for any extended period of time, a fourth-place finish in the A.L. East is not out of the question.

BRETT LAWRIE WILL MAKE BIG NEWS

Just don't ask us whether it’ll be with good news or bad. Incredibly, after just 43 games in the majors, the soon-to-be 22-year-old (better get that card in the mail soon, his birthday is Jan. 18) is already arguably the most popular player on the Blue Jays.

The Lawrie love first blossomed last March following a strong spring showing and then grew to a downright obsession by June as he continued to tear up triple-A and fans began to ask, rather demand, when he would get the call. A freak injury to his hand delayed his arrival by several weeks, but once he arrived in The Show, the Langley, B.C. native did not disappoint with nine homers, 25 RBIs and a line of .293/.373/.580/.953.

However when a rogue ground ball broke his finger in September bringing his rookie season to a premature end, it made us wonder whether Lawrie’s ascent is also star-crossed.

Fans should remember that very few 22-year-olds on Major League rosters stay there without a return trip to the minors at some point. At the same time we should all recall that in his brief time with the Blue Jays he has done nothing but impress, surprise and live up to his considerable hype.

Either way, his 2012 story won’t be a dull one.

YU DARVISH WILL KICK BUTT

During his first year in the majors Darvish will have the luxury of pitching to batters whose only exposure to his stuff to date has been via YouTube.

And with a combined 39 games against divisional (cough) rivals Oakland and Seattle -- two of the worst offences in baseball in 2011 -- a start or few against them certainly won't hurt his rookie stats. The two Japanese pitchers most often compared to Darvish -- Hideo Nomo and Daisuke Matsuzaka -- both enjoyed successful rookie seasons in MLB.

In 1995 with the Dodgers, Nomo posted a 2.54 ERA and led the N.L. with 236 strikeouts, while Dice-K logged 204 innings with 201 strikeouts for the Red Sox in 2006.

For 2012 go ahead and pencil in Darvish for 200 innings, an ERA under 3.50, 200 strikeouts and AL Rookie of the Year honours.

THE A'S WILL CHASE HISTORY

But for all the wrong reasons. In 2011 they won 74 games. In 2012, they might be lucky to win 54, which in some eyes might just be the plan in order to help facilitate a move to San Jose.

So far this off-season GM Billy Beane has been busy torching the major league roster by trading away young, cost-effective No. 1 and No. 2 starters (Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez), a young, cost-effective closer (Andrew Bailey) and watching his starting corner outfielders (Josh Willingham, David DeJesus) leave via free agency.

They have been “replaced” by several, young and talented players, most of whom won’t be ready until Opening Day 2014 at the earliest -- or just in time for the move north.

The major league record for most losses in a season is 140 by the 1962 New York Mets and with 38 games alone against divisional powerhouses Texas and Los Angeles, the A's are a good bet to a take a run at the mark.

In Oakland, A's fans have been busy airing their disgust via Facebook, pointing out the similarities of their predicament to the one Cleveland fans faced in the movie Major League.

If only A's fans had Harry Doyle.

MCGWIRE GETS SOME LOVE FROM VOTERS

But not enough. When the final votes are revealed on Jan. 9, McGwire will see his Hall of Fame support surge from the 19.8 per cent he received in 2011 to over 40 per cent in 2012 as several hard-liners begin to soften their stance against the former Cardinals slugger -- and admitted steroid user.

He'll still be well short of the 75 per cent needed for induction, but Big Mac's teary admission and subsequent public image rehabilitation tour as the Cards' hitting coach in 2011 has likely changed a few hearts, if not minds. As for those who do get the nod, Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell and (finally) Tim Raines will be heading to Cooperstown later this summer.

The real guessing game however begins in 2013 when Rogers Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Curt Schilling and Mike Piazza appear on the ballot for the first time.

TEAM CANADA AVOIDS WBC DISASTER

What? Canada has to qualify for the next World Baseball Classic? Yep, that's what you get for losing to Italy in 2009 and after MLB cynically decides to squeeze a few extra bucks out of an already watered-down event by forcing legitimate baseball nations (i.e, Canada and Panama) to take part in a double-elimination tournament with 14 other -- questionable at best -- baseball nations, sometime later this fall.

The top four teams from the qualification round will advance to the tournament itself, to be held sometime in 2013.

But because the actual dates and venues for the qualification tournament haven’t been revealed it's impossible to predict what kind of team Canada will be able to field.

What we do know are the 15 other countries taking part: Brazil, Columbia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Israel, New Zealand, Nicarauga, Phillipines, Spain and Thailand.

Hence the term, "avoids disaster" in the headline.