If King Felix has another Cy Young year will the M's be able to keep him in town?

BY SCOTT CARSON
sportsnet.ca

The new Major League Baseball season means sportsnet.ca columnist and broadcast statistician Scott Carson is back with his insight and analysis surrounding the six divisions and what stories to watch in each.

Next up is the American League West; home of the 2010 A.L. pennant winning Texas Rangers.

Can the Athletics score enough runs to support their young and talented starting pitching staff?

It's hard to figure what type of team that Billy Beane is trying to build. The A's top hitter - Rajai Davis - was dealt to Toronto for a pair of mid-prospect pitchers and they let Jack Cust, its top producer since 2007, walk away via free agency. The replacements will be David DeJesus, who played just 46 games in '09 for the Royals, and aging DH Hideki Matsui, two years removed from his World Series MVP with the Yankees. The shine is starting to dull on this franchise, which has not won more than 81 games since 2006 when winning on the cheap was all the rage. Now, with the A's looking at building a new stadium in a locale other than Oakland, the organization appears to be at a crossroads. They have enough pitching to compete, but the offence is uneven and not likely to get better in the short term. Plus, baseball fans in the Bay Area are still hung over from the Giants unexpected World Series championship and not likely to make the 45 minute drive across the bridges to sit amongst a few thousand faithful fans.

How will Vernon Wells respond to his new position (LF) and new surroundings in Los Angeles?

Many Blue Jays fans will be watching V-Dub closely in his first season playing for another organization. No one will ever question Vernon's skill set, but the level of fire in his belly is another thing. And the fact that he was never comfortable in a leadership role won't be a problem with the Angels with stars like Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu never shying away from the spotlight. But if Wells thought it was tough to play in Toronto, he hasn't seen anything yet. The Angels took on his $81 million in salary over the next four seasons after failing to land Carl Crawford. That alone will bring a lot of pressure. But he will be playing in a weaker division than the A.L. East which could lead to an offensive renaissance. With the Angels being a perennial post-season contender, that alone could spur Wells to play to his salary level. But he can't do it alone and Hunter and Abreu, along with a healthy Kendry Morales, will be expected to lead if the Angels are to usurp the Rangers from their unexpected rise to the top of the American League.

Can the Rangers' young starters take the next step to help the defending AL champs overcome the loss of Cliff Lee as a free agent?

A lot will hinge on if the Rangers decide to turn dominant closer Neftali Feliz into a starter and hand over ninth inning duties to unproven Alexi Ogando. The loss of Cliff Lee left a massive hole atop the rotation. C.J. Wilson certainly has the stuff and make-up to lead this staff, but after him, there is a fall off. Right-handers Tommy Hunter, Colby Lewis and Scott Feldman are serviceable, but unspectacular. They are gambling that former D'Backs ace Brandon Webb has his shoulder woes behind him and he can return to the form that saw him win 70 games between 2005 and 2008. If Webb returns to health and is joined by Feliz, this could be a formidable rotation ... but that's a pretty big if. What the Rangers will do is hit, led by reigning A.L. MVP Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler and free agent signee Adrian Beltre. They also added the 26 home run bat of catcher Mike Napoli in a deal with the Blue Jays. The Rangers and Angels should be in a solid two-team race for the division all season long.

Will Felix Hernandez finish the 2011 season as a member of the Seattle Mariners?

I sure hope so or the Mariners will turn into the A.L. version of the Pirates. Having already lost Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr., moving King Felix, for whatever reason, would be a bad move. This franchise has been supported very well over the years despite the defections, and play in one of the best ballparks and cities in the Majors. Hernandez had one of the best seasons in the new millennium, putting his numbers on the same level as Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. With a little help from his offence (A.L. worst 3.10 run support avg), his 13-12 record could have easily been 20-5. The Blue Jays expansion cousins have lost 101 times in two of their last three seasons, despite having Ichiro leading off and picking up 200+ hits in each of his 10 seasons since coming to America. Unfortunately, money has been wasted on under-performing free agent. Last season's culprit was Chone Figgins; a table setter in Anaheim, a disappointment in Seattle with $26 million left on his deal.

Can Josh Hamilton replicate his monster 2010 season?

It's going to be tough. Hamilton finally showed what all the fuss was about, putting up the type of numbers that everyone expected of him when the Rays drafted him first overall in the 1999 draft only to be swallowed up by his addictions and not making his major league debut until 2007 with the Reds. When healthy, he's a modern-day Mickey Mantle, one of the few five-tool players in the game today. He may still be just 29-years old, but he's an old 29 due to his years of drug abuse, and his body tends to break down and recovery times can be extended. Last season was a perfect example. He was relatively healthy all season long, but back stiffness and bruised ribs held him out of all but five games after Sept. 1 and limited his effectiveness in the post-season where he hit just .190 as the Rangers eventually lost to the Giants in the World Series. This season, he won't have the potent bat of Vladimir Guerrero to give him protection and won't likely see as many fastballs as he has in the past.

STATSMAN'S NON-BINDING PREDICTION IN THE AL WEST

LA ANGELS

TEXAS

OAKLAND

SEATTLE