The Jays need to find a credible closer, but their best option may already be in a Toronto uniform.
When all is said and done and the 2011 regular season is in the books with the Toronto Blue Jays finishing in their familiar spot of fourth place in the American League East, much debate will go on in the blogosphere about just how successful this season really was.
Jose Bautista's defence of his home run title, the full throttle arrival of Brett Lawrie, the speed element brought to the table by Rajai Davis and the regression of Travis Snider and Kyle Drabek will be a few subjects dissected and discussed. As will the breakout performances by Eric Thames and Henderson Alvarez.
But in my mind, the lack of a credible closer -- leading to an A.L.-high (or worst, depending on how you look at it) 23 blown saves to date -- was the biggest reason the Jays were unable to at least reel in the Tampa Bay Rays and stay within striking distance of the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.
Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch were brought in during the winter to replace Kevin Gregg who, despite posting 37 saves in 2010 (fourth highest total in franchise history), was allowed to leave via free agency as a compensation draft pick was deemed the better option.
Gregg, while never to be confused with a top-shelf closer and caused much hand-wringing amongst the masses, blew only six saves during his lone season in Toronto. I'm not saying that they made the wrong call by taking a compensation draft pick (No. 53 Dwight Smith Jr.), but in hindsight, Gregg might have been a more easier-to-swallow option than Francisco or Rauch, who have combined to blow 11 saves and both spent time on the disabled list this season.
So where does this leave the Jays now, looking forward to the 2012 season?
The easy way to remedy this problem is through free agency, something that many of you have wished for in the chat rooms and on Twitter. The obvious choice, based upon who might be out there this winter, is Red Sox fire-baller Jonathan Papelbon, whose 217 total saves since 2006 are second only to first-ballot Hall-of-Famer Mariano Rivera.
The only problem is that Papelbon will likely command $15 million-plus on the open market. And, I've always been of the belief that bringing in a free agent closer is the final piece of the puzzle for a contender. That doesn't make fans happy who worry, game-to-game, about the here and now but in the bigger picture (which still has the Blue Jays rebuilding to challenge for the playoffs in 2013), spending big money on a closer this off-season is probably not high on general manager Alex Anthopoulos' priority list as he reshapes his 40-man roster.
Therefore, unless a trade brings in a closer this winter, the options will have to come from within. There's been talk of Jesse Litsch or Casey Janssen being options, or young prospect Nestor Molina, whose meteoric rise through the system has caught the eyes of many in and outside the organization.
In my mind, the Jays have their best option already in uniform and the type of swing-and-miss arm that they need to pitch in the ninth with the game in the balance.
His name is Brandon Morrow.
Before most of you accelerate carpal tunnel syndrome by responding to my suggestion at the bottom of this column, hear me out: Morrow has closing experience with the Seattle Mariners before being sent to the Jays for Brandon League (whose 34 saves this season rank him third in the A.L. and saw him pitch in the All-Star Game -- gulp!) a week after they traded Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies in December of 2009.
We all know just how dominant Morrow has been as a starter; his 17-strikeout, one-hitter against the Rays in 2010 was one of the best starting performances in franchise history, but those moments have been few and far between. And one has to wonder just how durable the 27-year-old diabetic is and what affect the disease might have on his performance.
A statistical breakdown of Morrow's career to date certainly adds to the debate:
STARTER > 4.73 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .243 Opp Avg, 0.97 HR/9 IP
RELIEVER > 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .217 Opp Avg, 0.84 HR/ 9 IP
While Morrow hasn't exactly been an automatic in save situations (16 for 22 career), the fact that he's one of the top strikeout artists of his generation adds to the intrigue. Over his two seasons with the Blue Jays, Morrow's rate of 10.41 Ks per nine innings is tops in the majors. And while digging into the numbers, it also dawned on me that Morrow, in 183 career appearances spanning just under 500 innings pitched, has induced just 20 double-plays, including zero this season. Morrow really is just a one-trick pony. It has been strikeouts and little of anything else.
More than anything else, his constantly high pitch counts keep him from going deep into games. He has averaged just 5.2 innings per start as a Blue Jay due to throwing 17.4 pitches per inning. That has led to an already suspect bullpen being overworked. It’s classic cause and effect.
Strike-throwing closers have been scarce around these parts. Outside of Tom Henke and Duane Ward and, for single seasons, Victor Cruz and Billy Koch, they have been the rarest of birds. I'm sure there will be many options discussed this off-season, but Brandon Morrow might prove to be their best option.
