TORONTO – They said goodbye at 83-79 after a 1-0 loss to the Baltimore Orioles in the finale and now there will be change, and lots of it, for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Free agents Casey Janssen, Colby Rasmus and, if the market plays out as some seem to think it will, Melky Cabrera won’t be back. The 2015 contract options on Brandon Morrow and Sergio Santos won’t be exercised, Dustin McGowan’s probably won’t, and Josh Thole’s fate is tied to R.A. Dickey. The options for J.A. Happ and Adam Lind are sure to be picked up, although they could also be trade bait.
As a result, general manager Alex Anthopoulos has some holes to fill, and some flexibility. Already he has about $94 million committed to eight players, one of whom is Ricky Romero, the options for Happ and Lind would add $13.2 million to that, and there’s $5 million in potential buyouts that must be accounted for in the club’s 2015 payroll.
Arbitration-eligible players include Brett Lawrie, Brett Cecil, Danny Valencia and John Mayberry Jr., the latter two likely to return but not sure bets, while George Kottaras, Dan Johnson and Juan Francisco are candidates to be non-tendered, so budget about $8 million there.
Assuming a payroll in or around the $140 million the Blue Jays spent this year, Anthopoulos could have anywhere from $20-$33 million to fill out the roster. The Great Obfuscator can certainly work with that, even if the club’s “five‑year policy (on contract terms) is still firmly in place. That’s not going to change.”
The question now is how to make up the 13-game chasm between them and the Orioles in the American League East, and the five-game gap between them and a wild card berth.
“We know the free agents that are out there,” said Anthopoulos. “I have a sense of some of the players that could be available in trade. Once you get to the off-season, I expect a whole other group of players to be available. That gets done in the month of October. At some point we’ll come up with where the payroll is going to be, all that kind of stuff. But I expect us to continue to try to build and add and put a World Series team on the field.”
While Anthopoulos was careful to not publicly call out his relievers, it’s clear one of the primary areas he believes needs addressing is the bullpen.
The Blue Jays ranked 12th in the American League with a 4.09 ERA out of the ‘pen, 12th in OPS at .724 and tied for 11th in WHIP at 1.34 – devastating for a team relying on a top-five performance from the group.
Rookie Aaron Sanchez, the club’s likeliest candidate to blossom into a legit ace, apprenticed in the bullpen after the all-star break and was the team’s best reliever in the second half. There’s an organizational split on how he’s best used next year – some would like to see him take over from Janssen as closer, others are adamant he must start – which makes the bullpen construction next year particularly crucial.
Sanchez is an asset the team can’t screw up, but if a reliable closer isn’t acquired and surrounded with effective set-up men, Cecil is the only one right now, the temptation to pull him from the rotation will simmer in the background. Cautionary tales are everywhere in that regard, with Kelvim Escobar and McGowan providing two examples from close to home.
“First thing, I’d say is we view him as a starter with front‑line starter potential, that hasn’t changed,” said Anthopoulos. “He’s done a wonderful job this year in the bullpen, and it’s easy to say, well, he can do it.”
Later, he added: “A lot is going to depend on who we get. In terms of relievers, is the closer role specifically a focus? I don’t know that it’s so much a closer as much as it is building that depth. … We’re going to look to add relievers, and there may be someone that we add via trade or add through free agency that we announce as the closer. There may be a bunch of guys that we add or sign and say they’re going to compete to be the closer depending on who they are.
“We’re just going to look to get better in the bullpen and depth in the bullpen is so incredibly important because you’re going to kill those guys if you’re only three or four deep. That’s really going to be a focus for us, free agency, trade, all that stuff.”
David Robertson and Koji Uehara are among the top free agent closers, although the latter used his no-trade clause to block a trade to the Blue Jays by Texas two off-seasons ago, and word is he’s intent on remaining in Boston. Some interesting set-up types who might succeed as closers include Joba Chamberlain, Jason Motte, Luke Gregerson, and Juan Carlos Oviedo.
However that plays out, the Blue Jays also must leave enough in the kitty to address their infield and outfield.
Anthopoulos will need one outfielder, if not two depending on what happens with Cabrera, and while some sort of Anthony Gose/Kevin Pillar hybrid in centre field until promising prospect Dalton Pompey is ready is an option, that could easily supernova into a second-base like black hole of offence.
Replacing Cabrera’s production would be impossible, and the free agent market offers few appealing options, although Nori Aoki is an interesting candidate to provide the type of all-around game that could help diversify the Blue Jays offence.
The infield market is similarly thin, but Asdrubal Cabrera might be worth a rethink after a solid stint at second base with the Washington Nationals.
Anthopoulos continues to insist Brett Lawrie will be his third baseman – the Blue Jays are studying ways to prevent his recurring oblique injuries – but added his oft-stated caveat that he could be moved to second if it makes the team better.
Pablo Sandoval is the top free agent third baseman, unless a team is planning to play Hanley Ramirez there, but watching Panda play defence on the turf might not be pretty. Moving him to first base would be intriguing and give Anthopoulos the option of flipping Lind for someone else.
Interestingly, the GM said durability “is going to be weighed more than it has” and while depth is a part of that, so too is the type of player he targets.
To that end, Anthopoulos said, “we always get caught up in the ability and the talent, and sometimes you say, well, you’re only going to get 25 starts or they get 400 at‑bats, but wow, those 25 starts are great or those 400 at‑bats are outstanding. Maybe there’s something to be said for the guy that gives you the 33 starts where the quality is a little less or those guys that give you the 500, 600, at‑bats and the 140 games. The quality is a little less, but it’s the aggregate of the replacement players when you factor it all in, as tantalizing as the talent is, if they’re not on the field they’re not going to help you play.”
Deepening the bench would help by providing more options and giving regulars – Jose Reyes in particular – more frequent days off. Bench players like Valencia and Mayberry were picked up via trade, and Anthopoulos will need to manage his assets well to upgrade on that.
Beyond Lind, the Blue Jays have some pieces to potentially deal thanks to some starting depth, but Anthopoulos is loath to cut into his stash of Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, Daniel Norris and Kendall Graveman.
A veteran like Happ, Dickey or Mark Buehrle could also be moved, but Anthopoulos pointed out that “philosophically speaking I want to horde as much as we can, keep as much depth as we can. You can always put guys in the bullpen.”
Making it all happen within the parameters Anthopoulos apparently must work within is going to be especially difficult. A wild-card is how the club’s total attendance, which dipped from 2,536,562 in 2013 to 2,375,525 this year, affects the bottom line.
So while the Blue Jays do have flexibility, it may not be enough to cover all their needs. Anthopoulos will need to be at his creative best to capitalize on the opportunity.