Atkins planning to push Blue Jays core forward, not pull it apart

Shi Davidi and Arden Zwelling join Brad Fay to talk about the Blue Jays’ needs in free agency and why Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are likely to test the waters in free agency.

TORONTO – Let’s start with this, given all the uncertainty facing the Toronto Blue Jays as they enter an off-season with the potential for very deep and significant transition: Ross Atkins is planning to push his core forward, not pull it apart.

"We’re trying to win and we’re going to continue to try to win," the general manager said Monday during a season-in-review session with beat writers. "I can’t see a scenario where that changes, really. We’re really focused on our alternatives, our opportunities and doing everything we can to make this team a little bit closer to a world championship."

Cool. Setting that as the guideline for the winter to come is the easy part.

Far more complex will be not just strengthening the guts of a team that’s made consecutive trips to the American League Championship Series, but in keeping vital organs headed for free agency starting with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, or in ensuring successful transplants if they can’t be retained.

There’s a passionate and engaged fan-base that can’t be alienated.

Toward that end, Atkins said the two sluggers "will definitely be priorities for us," and when teams get an exclusive five-day negotiating period with their own free agents after the World Series, "we’ll look to do everything we can to take advantage of that window."

Sounds good, but for a reality check, Encarnacion and Bautista have no incentive to re-sign before testing the open market – unless the Blue Jays make them an offer so good they have no reason to listen to other teams. That’s not likely to happen.

So the real test for the Blue Jays looms afterwards, when they weigh the cost of bringing the two franchise icons back against the other options available on the market, walking a tightrope between keeping the door open on both Encarnacion and Bautista versus watching other options sign elsewhere.

Notable is that Atkins described the free agent market as one that has a "number of very good players that are in that corner outfield and first-base/DH area" where the Blue Jays just happen to need some help.

Replicating the production of Encarnacion and Bautista will be close to impossible, but reallocating payroll toward a free-agent combination like Mike Napoli, Josh Reddick and Dexter Fowler might make for a more rounded and balanced lineup.

Speaking in general terms about how, ideally, he’d reconfigure the lineup, Atkins said "any organization would be looking to create more balance, more platoon effect and potentially more speed, but it’s just not as easy as deciding to do that and making it happen. Those are the things that come to mind."

A key step in the process, Atkins noted, is that the Blue Jays do not yet have a payroll number from team owner Rogers Communications Inc., and that president and CEO Mark Shapiro will soon present a number of different scenarios to help determine that figure.

The expectation is that the Blue Jays will see some type of increase from the roughly $150-million area they finished at in 2016 after leading the AL in attendance. The recent changeover at CEO from Guy Laurence to Joe Natale at Rogers is also believed to be a positive.

Still, the market for Encarnacion is expected to be very hot while Bautista is likely to be a prime target for teams left out once the first baseman/DH signs. It’s going to be competitive, and if the Blue Jays are going to win the bidding, the payroll has to be sustainable for the duration of any potential contract to keep the team viable.

There’s no point in re-signing the duo at the expense of the ability to adequately fill in the roster around them. Also headed to the open market are Michael Saunders, Brett Cecil, R.A. Dickey, Dioner Navarro, Joaquin Benoit, Scott Feldman and Gavin Floyd. Set-up man Jason Grilli has a $3 million club option that Atkins called "as near a no-brainer to pick up as you can get."

Factoring that in, the Blue Jays have $106.3 million in guarantees to nine players with Marcus Stroman, expected to be eligible as a Super 2 player, the only sizable arbitration hit at a projected $3.5 million.

Aside from either re-signing Encarnacion and Bautista or replacing them, the Blue Jays also need a left-fielder, a backup catcher to ease the load on Russell Martin and some bullpen help with Joe Biagini likely to be stretched out as a starter to create rotation depth, and Cecil and Benoit bound for free agency.

The Blue Jays may be able to help themselves in the bullpen with internal options such as Ryan Tepera, Bo Schultz, Danny Barnes, Matt Dermody and Chris Smith, but Atkins did say the team needs to "significantly" add to its relief corps.

"That doesn’t mean significant numbers," he said, "but it may."

The Blue Jays could do some dumpster-diving on that front and hope to hit on another Biagini in the Rule 5 draft or a reclamation-project type of arm in free agency. And the trade market could offer some interesting alternatives in other areas, with outfielders like Kole Calhoun, Charlie Blackmon, Ender Inciarte and Adam Eaton of some interest.

Trades will be very expensive in assets, however, and Atkins seemed to dismiss the notion of trading pitching to address a different area because the team would still face a void, only in a scarcer commodity. And while he said the farm system is deeper than it was a year ago, he added the caveat that "we don’t have quite as much talent as we’d like to be able to deal from."

So that leads back to free agency, where the devil you know is often preferable to the devil you don’t. The open market is a crapshoot where it usually takes the high bid to win and teams get played off one another to drive up the price.

Can players like Napoli, Reddick, Fowler, Ian Desmond, Seth Smith, Nori Aoki, Mitch Moreland be lured north at a price more sensible than what Encarnacion and Bautista, who know Toronto and like Toronto, will command?

"If we had carte blanche we could do anything we wanted but you can’t because you have to compete against 29 other teams and people have to decide to come here," said Atkins, adding later: "We’re always navigating and balancing opportunity costs and alternatives."

This is the first full off-season for the new Blue Jays regime. We’ll soon find out how well they find their way through and stay afloat in murky waters.

When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.