KANSAS CITY — With the schedule soft spot of the last three weeks behind them, and a disappointing 8-10 record over that stretch now on the register, the true test of this Toronto Blue Jays season finally begins in earnest on Tuesday.
Sunday’s 8-2 thumping of the Royals capped off a 3-4 road trip through Texas and Kansas City. That brings the team’s June record to 10-12, a discouraging follow-up to the Blue Jays’ torrid 18-10 May. Toronto’s run differential, plus-29 in May, has swung right around and is minus-30 this month, and now sits at minus-22 on the season.
The up-and-down nature of Toronto’s play has left it right in the soft centre of the American League, with no true indication as to whether this club has what it takes to push for a third consecutive post-season appearance or if the front office should begin considering a late-July sell-off.
But we may be about to find out. Toronto’s final four series before the mid-July all-star break will be played against the Baltimore Orioles (37-38), Boston Red Sox (41-34), New York Yankees (40-33), and Houston Astros (51-25). Baltimore is by far the least intimidating of those opponents, but the Orioles have played the Blue Jays stubbornly over the last several years, and have already beaten Toronto seven of the nine times they’ve played in 2017. Boston, New York and Houston? That’s the class of the American League.
[snippet id=3319157]
So, a lot will be learned as the Blue Jays attempt to steer their way through that stretch — for fans, observers, and the club’s front office, which will begin making decisions right around that all-star break as to what this team will do come the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
“It’s not going to be do-or-die type of baseball, but it’ll definitely be a good stretch of games heading into the break where we could make up some good ground,” said outfielder Jose Bautista. “After a tough first month, I think overall our record has been pretty good. We’ve been having to battle a lot of things — guys going down and stuff like that. But for the most part, we’re healthy and we’ve just got to get in a groove where we’re all playing together and everybody’s doing what we’re capable of doing and the machine is running on all cylinders. Hopefully we get to do that here, especially during this stretch.”
But put a pin in that for a moment, while we deal with the particulars of Sunday’s triumph, which featured a strong outing from starter Francisco Liriano, who allowed two runs on six hits over six innings. Liriano threw 61 per cent of his pitches for strikes, leaning heavily on his slider which he used 40 per cent of the time and earned seven swinging strikes with.
“I was throwing strikes with it early in the count,” Liriano said. “It was working pretty good. I feel pretty good about it.”
Liriano’s day didn’t start particularly well, as his second batter of the game, Jorge Bonifacio, worked a 2-1 count before driving a 94-m.p.h. fastball on the inner edge of the strike zone 408 feet to left for a solo shot. But Liriano dialled it in from there, retiring his next eight batters in order until Bonifacio came back up and opened the fourth inning with a double. The Royals outfielder came around to score two batters later on an Eric Hosmer single to left, pushing the Royals lead to two.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays had difficulty against Royals starter Jason Hammel through four innings, scattering three hits and two walks, and failing to bring any of those baserunners in. But that all changed in the fifth, when Ryan Goins led off with a first-pitch single before Bautista worked a 3-0 count and absolutely lit up a 90-m.p.h. fastball on the inner half, launching the ball 450 feet to left for a game-tying, two-run shot.
“It’s a feel thing. If you feel like the ball’s going to end up in the zone, you try to go after it,” Bautista said of swinging in a 3-0 count. “And, lucky enough, he put one right there on a tee for me. I’m sure he wants that one back and that he wasn’t trying to locate it right there. But sometimes pitchers make mistakes and hitters take advantage, and I feel like that was one of those moments.”
Hammel got himself out of the inning, but handed things off to reliever Scott Alexander in the sixth, who promptly allowed a single to Darwin Barney before walking Kevin Pillar and Steve Pearce to load the bases. Kansas City quickly turned to another reliever, Peter Moylan, who walked Bautista on five pitches to give Toronto its third run and the lead.
[snippet id=3305549]
Russell Martin was next, and he scorched a Moylan slider to the left side of the infield that Royals third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert couldn’t handle, plating a fourth run on the error. Then Josh Donaldson stepped in, took a pitch, and flared a Moylan sinker into right field for a double, driving in two more. Martin later scored Toronto’s fifth run of the inning on a Kendrys Morales fielder’s choice, sliding head-first under the tag of Royals catcher Drew Butera.
There was another run in the seventh, but the Blue Jays already had all they would need by that point. With the win, Toronto avoided the indignity of falling five games below .500 for the first time since May 24. The Blue Jays also kept themselves in position to potentially leapfrog the Orioles in the American League East with a series sweep next week, or at least pull level for fourth place in the division with a series victory. That would be a very encouraging way to head into the murderer’s row of Boston, New York and Houston that awaits Toronto heading into the break.
“We need to get rolling, that’s for sure,” Gibbons said. “It’s time to get hot. … We haven’t seen much of Boston; we haven’t seen Houston at all. We know those other teams a little bit. It’ll be a good test. We’ll have a pretty good read, I would think.”
Which brings us back to the maze of decision-making the Blue Jays front office will have to navigate as that stretch plays out. If the Blue Jays become buyers at the deadline, these next four series will have gone very well. At that point, the Blue Jays will likely look to add help at second base, where Goins and Barney are currently platooning, and potentially also in left field, where it could be useful to acquire a left-handed bat to complement Pearce and guard against potential injury.
Names like Jed Lowrie, Howie Kendrick, Zack Cozart, Melky Cabrera, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce come to mind, but the Blue Jays front office remains very committed to preserving its prospect capital and would need the right deal to present itself. It’s also possible Toronto could instead leverage its financial resources and take on a contract another team is motivated to get out from under, much like Toronto did moments before last season’s deadline by acquiring Liriano and the approximately $18 million remaining on his deal at the time.
If Toronto’s buying, one assumes they will also parse the robust relief pitching market to reinforce a beleaguered bullpen. Joe Smith’s on the shelf with right shoulder inflammation, Roberto Osuna missed time recently due to a mental health issue, Joe Biagini’s in the starting rotation, and both Ryan Tepera (38.2 innings pitched) and Danny Barnes (32.1) have carried exceptional workloads this season.
And if the Blue Jays become sellers? Anything would be considered for the right price, especially the expiring contracts of Liriano, Smith and Marco Estrada.
So, yes, these next four series are going to determine a lot. The most complicated outcome for Toronto’s front office is, unfortunately for them, also the most likely one, which would see the Blue Jays continue to hover around the .500 mark (they have yet to exist at or above it since opening day) and the AL’s murky middle right through the all-star break and up until the deadline, not providing enough success to make an undeniable case for adding to the roster and pushing for the playoffs, and not losing enough ground to make a sell-off the most logical path to pursue. Stay tuned. Things are about to get interesting.