On Friday night Marco Estrada made his 124th MLB start. The 33-year-old’s night was markedly worse than usual, but it had one thing in common with previous 123. It ended with Estrada handing the ball to his manager.
Put another way, Estrada has recorded 2,199 outs during his time as a starter and only two of those have come in the ninth. They were both recorded on June 25 of last season when he took a perfect game into the eighth and was lifted after giving up a double on pitch 129 in a 0–0 game.
This is not an indictment of Estrada, who’s been one of the best in the game over the last two seasons. It says more about baseball’s increasing preference for short starts and heavy bullpen usage. This shift in the way the sport is played has the Toronto Blue Jays on the verge of a franchise milestone. For the first time in the team’s history, it looks likely the Blue Jays will finish the year without a single complete game pitched. In 139 games the club’s starters have made it to the ninth inning four times and the results have looked like this:
1. Pitcher: Marcus Stroman
Opponent: Tampa Bay Rays
Date: April 3
Result: Blue Jays win 5–3
Batters pitched to in the ninth: 2
Outs in the ninth:0
What happened: The Blue Jays’ rotation had perhaps their best shot at a complete game on Opening Day. Stroman entered the ninth in the midst of a gem having thrown only 92 pitches. In the final frame, he gave up a home run, then a single, and was lifted in favour of Roberto Osuna.
2. Pitcher: J.A. Happ
Opponent: San Francisco Giants
Date: May 10
Result: Blue Jays win 4–0
Batters pitched to in the ninth: 4
Outs in the ninth: 2
What happened: Happ came within one out of his fourth career shutout, but was lifted after giving up a single to Hunter Pence and walking Brandon Belt. Considering the Blue Jays had a four-run lead and Happ’s pitch count was far from outrageous at 111, this was a bit of a cautious hook from manager, John Gibbons.
3. Pitcher: Marco Estrada
Opponent: Boston Red Sox
Date: June 5
Result: Blue Jays win 5–4
Batters pitched to in the ninth: 1
Outs in the ninth: 0
What happened: Estrada was given the chance to finish the game despite throwing 108 pitches through eight, but the leash was short. As soon as Dustin Pedroia hit his second pitch of the inning for a double, Gibbons went to Osuna.
4. Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez
Opponent: Detroit Tigers
Date: June 7
Result: Blue Jays lose 3–2
Batters pitched to in the ninth: 2
Outs in the ninth: 0
What happened: Sanchez was having a dazzling outing, holding the Tigers scoreless over eight with 12 strikeouts, one walk and only a single hit against. He entered the ninth with a 2–0 lead, allowed a single and a double and gave way to Osuna, who ultimately blew the save. The Blue Jays lost in extra innings.
The last time a Blue Jays pitcher went the distance was June 3, 2015, when Mark Buehrle shut out the Washington Nationals, which was 247 games ago. This complete-game drought clearly isn’t keeping the team down as they are 145-102 since that start.
That said, it is stylistically jarring for this to happen to a franchise that not long ago built its identity around throwback workhorse Roy Halladay. During his 10-year run of dominance between 2001 and 2009, the Blue Jays ace pitched 47 complete games, 16 more than the next highest pitcher (Livan Hernandez) and more than 12 whole teams.
For a time, Halladay single-handedly sheltered Blue Jays fans from the death of the complete game. Now that death is becoming impossible to ignore. In 2016 pitchers have only gone the distance 73 times, a pace that would leave them short of 100 for the first time in MLB history. When the Blue Jays played their first season in 1977 there were 907 complete games. Baseball is constantly evolving and the way starters are used is one of the most dramatic changes of the last 40 years.
This season the Blue Jays rotation has exceeded all reasonable expectations. Sanchez has emerged as a top-flight starter, Happ and Estrada have sustained 2015 breakouts and despite early struggles, Stroman has come on strong. It’s certainly a surprise that none of these four, or R.A. Dickey, have managed a complete game this year, but it isn’t shocking. In the 1970’s it might have been an outrage, but now it’s more like a piece of trivia.
The Blue Jays don’t find themselves without a complete game because their starters lack stamina or mental toughness. It’s not because they have a manager with a twitchy trigger finger. In 2016, this is simply the way the game is played.