TORONTO – The 40-man roster now recalibrated with the additions of top prospects Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey and Kendall Graveman, among others, the Toronto Blue Jays’ bigger-picture machinations will shift toward making final decisions on their six players with 2015 contract options.
For the sake of argument, let’s operate under the assumption that general manager Alex Anthopoulos will exercise the options on Adam Lind ($7 million or a $1 million buyout) and J.A. Happ ($6.7 million/$200,000) because both offer value compared to similar open-market replacements, that Josh Thole ($1.75 million) will be back to catch R.A. Dickey, and that Sergio Santos ($6 million/$750,000) will be cut loose.
That leaves Brandon Morrow ($10 million/$1 million) and Dustin McGowan ($4 million/$400,000), and here is where things get interesting for the Blue Jays, and in particular their bullpen.
One way or another, a relief corps expected to be a strength of the 2014 club is going to be remade this winter given that Santos is all but officially gone and with closer Casey Janssen a pending free agent. Aaron Sanchez, so instrumental of late, is expected to vie for a spot in the rotation next spring, leaving Brett Cecil (headed to second year arbitration), Aaron Loup, Todd Redmond and Chad Jenkins as the only bullpen regulars due to return next year.
So clearly there’s much work to do in this area, and how Morrow and McGowan might factor into the mix will be closely watched in September.
The $10 million option on Morrow, who rejoined the team Tuesday as a reliever after missing most of the season with a torn tendon sheath in his index finger, is sure to be declined by the Blue Jays given that it’s a starting pitcher pay-rate and the right-hander has managed just 16 starts the past two years.
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With about $93 million already committed to eight players next year, one of whom is Ricky Romero, and no guarantees that the payroll will remain in the $140 million range it sat at this year, the Blue Jays simply can’t afford a $10-million gamble on Morrow, no matter his tantalizing ability.
But the 30-year-old who saved 16 games for the Seattle Mariners in 2008 and ’09 could make things interesting with a big September out of the bullpen, perhaps setting himself up as a potential closer for 2015 if the Blue Jays can bring him back at a reduced price.
Manager John Gibbons mused about the possibility last weekend, saying “when you look at his stuff, that might be an ideal role for him. He gets banged up each year, maybe that’s the route to go, who knows?” Later Gibbons added, “He’s got overpowering stuff, he’s got a good fastball, a great slider. Maybe you maximize him that way.”
The bigger issue is whether Morrow plans to market himself as a starter or a reliever this off-season, the latter of which will curtail his earning power. Either way, he’ll most likely be in control of his destination once the Blue Jays decline the option as expected.
Then there’s McGowan, on the verge of delivering the full season the Blue Jays have been waiting for since a shoulder injury interrupted his 2008 campaign.
At 76 innings through Tuesday’s play, he’s already more than doubled his total 2013 output of 36.2 innings between the majors and minors, and how the cumulative effect of that drastic spike impacts him next year is an interesting question.
Maybe this season becomes a building block for his physical capacity and he really takes off next year. Or perhaps he pays for 2014 in 2015.
“Honestly, I feel unbelievable actually. I feel as good as I’ve felt the whole year. No problems at all,” McGowan said of where he’s at physically after 47 games, eight of them starts. “Once I got rid of the soreness from the starting I’ve felt great. I don’t know if it’s the way I’ve been used, going one inning at a time and stuff, but I’m not going to argue with how I feel.”
The 32-year-old has been dominant in some stretches, gettable in others. Factor in a 4.14 ERA and 6.6 strikeouts-per-nine ratio, and McGowan has been a good but not great set-up man, although to be fair he has had to do some learning on the job.
“I think he’s in a good place, I think he’s found his niche in the bullpen, he’s happy down there, and as much as he’s been around the game, he’s still learning the nuances of pitching out of the bullpen, and pitching in tough situations and learning how to deal with adversity out the ‘pen,” said pitching coach Pete Walker. “There are a lot of positives and he’s certainly handled the role well.”
Still, given that available money will probably be tight for the Blue Jays, can they afford to spend $4 million on what is essentially a medium-risk upside play?
“I don’t know, to tell you the truth,” McGowan said of his future. “It’s something I try not to think about, I have an option left, for me it’s finish strong and make the decision for any team out there to know I’m healthy and I’m a good pitcher. That’s all I can do.”
Closers other than Janssen headed for free agency include David Robertson, Sergio Romo and Jason Grilli, and if the Blue Jays wanted to make a run at one of them, the $4 million earmarked for McGowan could come in handy.
The Blue Jays could also trade for a closer, or look to their internal rotation depth and perhaps let Sanchez spend a season blowing big-leaguers away in the ninth inning before transitioning him back to the rotation. Graveman and Sean Nolin are a couple of internal possibilities to help out next year should they be needed.
All offer cost-effective relief options in one of the game’s most volatile jobs.
This year, the Blue Jays spent more than $12 million on their proven bullpen, and got mixed results. Most of that money will be coming off the books at season’s end, and Morrow and McGowan need strong spurts to the finish to get some of that earmarked for them.