TORONTO – The off-season could start as soon as Monday and no later than next Thursday depending on what happens this weekend in the World Series, meaning it’s crunch time for the Toronto Blue Jays to ready themselves for the winter’s business.
At the top of the to-do lists will be making final decisions on the six club options before them, especially the ones on Adam Lind and J.A. Happ, two calls that will dramatically swing the amount of money GM Alex Anthopoulos has to work with.
Related to those decisions are the pursuit of outfielder Melky Cabrera, who is set up to be one of the most coveted free agents in a market with few strong offensive performers. While defining a price for him remains difficult given the lack of obvious comparables, retaining him would surely eat up a significant chunk of the Blue Jays’ available payroll.
Now, where exactly the club’s spending on player salaries heads is an intriguing question, and events this week are open to interpretation. Club owner Rogers Communications Inc., noted in an earnings report that increased revenues at the Blue Jays helped keep Rogers Media’s operating revenue unchanged in the third quarter, but also noted “higher player salaries of approximately $10 million this quarter and $20 million year to date” contributed to an eight percent hike in the division’s operating expenses.
What that means for the bottom line is unclear, as is how this week’s hike in ticket prices and recent deliberations between club executives and ownership will impact the payroll.
But as the sands continue to shift in the American League East with longtime manager Joe Maddon leaving the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday to seek other opportunities, a defection that follows Andrew Friedman’s move to the Los Angeles Dodgers, there may be another opening in the division for the Blue Jays. (Despite Maddon’s sudden availability, the Blue Jays remain set at manager with John Gibbons).
To exploit any potential opportunity, a series of roster flaws must be addressed, with the outfield and the bullpen being top priorities, and finding either a second or third baseman close behind.
As things stand now, Anthopoulos has roughly $93 million committed to eight players, one of whom is Ricky Romero. Exercising the options on Lind ($7.5 million), Happ ($6.7 million) and Josh Thole ($1.75 million) adds more than $15 million to that total, while the Blue Jays’ five arbitration eligible players are projected by Matt Swartz at MLB Trade Rumors to tack on $10.2 million more (although Juan Francisco at $2.2 million is a good candidate to be non-tendered).
Should all of that happen, that would put the Blue Jays at $119 million for 16 players, leaving $21 million for two outfielders, a couple of relievers at least, an infielder and the contract renewals for pre-arbitration eligible players under a payroll of $140 million.
There’s no way Cabrera returns under those circumstances, even if the $15.3 million qualifying offer the Blue Jays plan to extend him restricts his market. Even at $145-$150 million, shoehorning him in while repairing a bullpen that Anthopoulos has publicly pointed to as problematic won’t be easy.
While declining the options on Lind or Happ would create lots of flexibility, there’s too much value in both contracts for that to happen, so it makes far more sense for the Blue Jays to deal one of them. Given that both Lind and Edwin Encarnacion require significant time at DH, moving Lind might make more sense, even though it would create a blatant need for an impact left-handed bat, especially with Colby Rasmus leaving as well.
Not bringing back Happ would be risky for the Blue Jays, who managed to get through the year with Happ, R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison and Marcus Stroman making 89 percent of the club’s starts. A repeat of that good fortune is unlikely.
One intriguing element Anthopoulos could use to his advantage is the financial freedom the team has beyond 2015, as the only guaranteed money on the Blue Jays’ books in 2016 and ’17 is $22 million annually to Jose Reyes.
Even if the Blue Jays exercise their options on Jose Bautista, Encarnacion and Dickey, they’d be on the hook for $58 million to four players, giving them all types of room to be creative.
Taking advantage of that payroll space would mean a decision has been made to extend the current competitive window beyond 2015, a call that needs to be made with a wave of young arms already integrating onto the roster and key veterans reaching the point where they need extensions.
Cabrera may certainly be the leading indicator on that front, as there’s little sense in outbidding everyone else – that’s pretty much what it will take to bring him back – only to head in a different direction in 2016.
Signing the 30-year-old will, of course, be far easier said than done.
While you can make a good case that Jhonny Peralta’s $53-million, four-year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals provides a good framework for Cabrera, you can also solidly argue that he deserves far more after the Boston Red Sox gave the unproven Rusney Castillo a $72.5-million, seven-year deal.
Perhaps that’s a reason why the two sides – despite a desire to stay together – haven’t been able to reach a deal. They need the market to break the tie.
For now, it’s one of the many questions lingering around the Blue Jays, and they’ll remain there until the off-season’s activity begins providing some answers.