Not everyone has a type, but when it comes to pitching it’s starting to look like Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro do.
Over the course of the season the Toronto Blue Jays front office has re-shaped the team’s pitching staff. Only seven of the 12 arms the team opened 2016 with are currently active for the club. Five newcomers have been brought in via trade.
The three highest profile additions, Francisco Liriano, Joaquin Benoit, and Jason Grilli are all cut from the same cloth. The veteran trio share strong track records, but questionable production this season. At the time they were acquired, each had done an excellent job missing bats while struggling mightily in other facets of the game. The chart below shows their numbers when the Blue Jays decided to bring them aboard:
| Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grilli | 17 | 12.18 | 6.88 | 1.06 | 5.29 | 4.43 |
| Benoit | 24.1 | 10.36 | 5.55 | 1.48 | 5.18 | 4.94 |
| Liriano | 113.2 | 9.18 | 5.46 | 1.50 | 5.46 | 5.27 |
That’s 155 innings of 5.40 ERA ball, with downright ugly walk and home run rates. The only saving grace here is the strikeout numbers, but believing in the ‘K’ seems to be a matter of philosophy for Atkins and Shapiro. In Cleveland they presided over a club that ranked ranked second, first and first in team punchouts over the last three seasons.
Focusing on strikeouts makes sense because they are not only valuable, they’re also a barometer of a pitcher’s stuff. Even though Grilli, Benoit and Liriano have struggled at times in 2016, they are consistently getting the best hitters in the world to swing at air. That’s an important indicator for a trio with 110 birthdays under their collective belts. If their repertoires haven’t diminished, it increases the likelihood they can be the pitchers they were from 2013-2015:
| Statistic | Grilli | Benoit | Liriano |
|---|---|---|---|
| IP | 137.2 | 186.2 | 510 |
| K/9 | 11.51 | 9.64 | 9.58 |
| BB/9 | 2.88 | 2.84 | 3.78 |
| HR/9 | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| ERA | 3.27 | 1.98 | 3.26 |
| FIP | 2.56 | 3.02 | 3.23 |
| WAR | 3.2 | 3.1 | 8.8 |
Grilli’s turnaround serves as the perfect example of what the Blue Jays can accomplish by taking on high-strikeout arms at the nadir of their value. Since arriving in Toronto, the right-hander has improved his walk rate to a manageable 3.5 per nine, and posted a 2.18 ERA while serving as the primary bridge to Roberto Osuna. A change of scenery and the ability to throw to an elite pitch framer in Russell Martin appears to have done wonders for the 39-year-old.
Like Grilli, Benoit and Liriano have a chance to bounce back because their raw stuff hasn’t deserted them. The former is throwing harder today than he did in 2010 when he posted a 1.34 ERA with the Tampa Bay Rays and his splitter remains devastating when properly located. The latter still sits 92-93 mph with his fastball and wields one of the most ridiculous sliders in the game.
That’s no guarantee Liriano and Benoit will end up being solid pickups for the Blue Jays. It’s possible that one or both will blow up spectacularly. In the American League East pitchers who give away free passes often get burned, and guys who struggle in pitcher-friendly environments like Seattle and Pittsburgh don’t often thrive in Toronto.
However, the volatility of pitchers, especially relievers, and the frailty of the human arm makes it impossible to acquire pitching talent without taking on risk. At the trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers showed an appetite for injury risk by trading for a rental currently on the disabled list in Rich Hill. The Blue Jays have chosen a different path, taking on performance risk in the form of underachieving hurlers.
Atkins and Shapiro have now made three very similar gambles betting on swing-and-miss stuff over recent results. They’ve hit on one thus far. How the other two wagers go will have a significant impact on where the Blue Jays go from here.