Among the many surprising trades the Toronto Blue Jays have made under Alex Anthopoulos, this one ranks pretty high. Industry observers were as surprised as anyone to learn that the Blue Jays acquired Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins in a trade that sends Jose Reyes, and prospects Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro and Jesus Tinoco to the Colorado Rockies.
It’s a stunner.
The move comes as a surprise because Tulowitzki’s biggest strength — the ability to generate all kinds of offence — also happens to be the Blue Jays’ biggest strength. Instead of improving a weakness, Anthopoulos bolstered an offence that already leads MLB in runs scored by 72. And while the move’s counter-intuitive, it improves the Blue Jays’ chances of catching either the New York Yankees or Minnesota Twins and ending their decades-long playoff drought.
As one rival executive pointed out Tuesday morning, adding runs scored is as good as preventing runs allowed (FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron made the point at length in this excellent piece). And Tulowitzki will help the Blue Jays score runs. The best offensive shortstop in baseball since debuting in 2006, he leads big league shortstops with an .818 OPS this year.
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Reyes remains a good offensive player, especially considering how poorly shortstops hit as a group. That said, he doesn’t rival Tulowitzki, who hits like a corner outfielder despite playing one of baseball’s most demanding positions.
On defence, Reyes has struggled with routine plays at times. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Tulowitzki is bigger than most shortstops, yet one NL exec said he’s still an upgrade over Reyes defensively. That’s not to say Tulowitzki doesn’t arrive in Toronto with concerns of his own — like Reyes, he has missed time with injuries and has a massive contract — but he’s viewed as an upgrade.
Still, as much as Tulowitzki helps bolster the Blue Jays’ league-best offence, he doesn’t impact their biggest need: starting pitching. Anthopoulos has said for weeks that he’s been working to upgrade a rotation that currently includes the struggling Drew Hutchison and Felix Doubront, whose career ERA sits at 4.77. That’s why many in the industry won’t be surprised if the Blue Jays add an arm between now and Friday’s 4 p.m. ET non-waiver trade deadline.
The Blue Jays have been linked to all manner of starting pitching, from top-end arms to intriguing rentals. Bolstering the rotation with another pitcher makes plenty of sense for a team clearly pushing for a 2015 playoff berth.
No matter how you look at it, the Blue Jays’ work isn’t done yet. Off the field Anthopoulos has three days to weigh potential upgrades against their existing rotation and minor league alternatives like left-hander Daniel Norris, who allowed four earned runs in five innings at triple-A Monday while walking four and striking out two.
And on the field, the Blue Jays have 62 games to prove that their mediocre .500 record doesn’t reflect their true talent level. They’re well-positioned to take advantage of parity in the American League and end their 22-year playoff drought, but they’d have to go 38-24 to match the 88 wins required by the second wild card teams in 2014, which would be a 99-win pace from here on.
There’s still lots of work to be done.
