Coming into this season Drew Hutchison was seen by many as a breakout candidate, and rightly so. During the last year’s final months Hutchison wowed observers with an increasingly devastating slider that led to a significant spike in strikeouts. From the All-Star break on he posted a 10.17 K/9, the third-best total among MLB starters.
Betting on late-season improvements isn’t always the best idea, but the 24-year-old’s growth seemed to be based on tangible upgrade to one of his weapons. It was very easy to imagine the right-hander building on his conclusion to 2014 with an outstanding 2015.
It would be an understatement to say that hasn’t been the case so far. Despite a deceptive 2-0 record, Hutchison has struggled mightily out of the gate, posting an ugly 7.47 ERA and 5.18 FIP. He has gotten out of the fifth inning only twice in six starts and has given up 12 earned runs in his last 8.1 innings pitched.
Early-season statistics are often hard to interpret, but in Hutchison’s case the cause of his struggles is fairly clear. When comparing this year’s numbers to last season’s the biggest difference is readily apparent.
| Year | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 8.97 | 2.92 | 1.12 | .295 | 4.48 | 3.85 |
| 2015 | 6.61 | 3.45 | 1.44 | .324 | 7.47 | 5.18 |
Hutchison’s walk rate has climbed slightly, and he is giving up a few more home runs, but the real problem is the dip in strikeouts. Last year his strikeout rate ranked 16th among qualified starters, this year he ranks 68th.
When a pitcher’s ability to miss bats fluctuates, the easiest assumption is that his arsenal has somehow changed. A dip in velocity is the most common issue.
But not only is the speed of Hutchison’s offerings this year consistent with what he did in 2014, so is his pitch mix.
| Year | Fastball Velocity | Fastball % | Changeup Velocity | Changeup % | Slider Velocity | Slider % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 92.2 | 65.1% | 85.3 | 11.9% | 84.6 | 23.0% |
| 2015 | 91.8 | 64.4% | 85.7 | 14.3% | 83.2 | 21.3% |
The differences here are negligible. He is throwing the slider a bit slower, but that’s consistent with his adjustments late last year to give the pitch more break.
If Hutchison’s pitches have the same zip as they’ve always had, and he’s using them the same way, it is puzzling that he’s having so much trouble striking out hitters, something that has traditionally been his greatest strength.
Finding the root of the issue requires looking beyond what Hutchison is offering to which of his pitches hitters are managing to make contact with. The chart below from Brooks Baseball shows how frequently opposing batters have whiffed on each of Hutchison’s pitches over the past two years on a per swing basis:
There is absolutely no change is Hutchison’s ability to make opposing hitters miss his slider, the major issue is the fastball. The dip in changeup whiffs is worth noting, but the decline for his fastball is far more significant because he throws it almost five times as frequently.
Considering that the average hitter whiffs on about 20 percent of his swings, Hutchison’s fastball went from a pitch that was harder-than-average to hit last year to significantly easier this season.
This problem worsened when the right-hander has needed whiffs the most — with two strikes. So far in 2015, hitters have been fouling off Hutchison’s two-strike fastballs instead of swinging through them.
Hutchison’s Two-Strike Fastballs
| Year | Whiffs per Swing | Fouls Per Swing |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 27.6% | 39.5% |
| 2015 | 12.2% | 53.1% |
What made Hutchison such a dynamic strikeout artist last season was the fact he had two lethal weapons he could turn to when he got ahead in the count. His slider got the headlines, but it was made more effective by the ability to climb the ladder and dispose of hitters with the high heat. Opposing batters couldn’t sit on both pitches at once.
Right now only one of his go-to out pitches is working the way he needs it to. The good news for Hutchison is that his fastball has essentially the same juice as it’s always had, so there’s no profound reason to believe he can’t miss bats with it again.
Even so, it hasn’t happened yet, and if this trend doesn’t end he could be in serious trouble. Hutchison’s improving slider may have granted him the title of “breakout candidate,” but he won’t be able to earn it unless he starts finishing hitters with his fastball again.
