SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Over the course of three days in the desert what’s become apparent at the GM meetings is that after an initial push to re-sign Edwin Encarnacion, the Toronto Blue Jays are very much taking a long, hard look at their other options.
General manager Ross Atkins spent a good chunk of his day Wednesday meeting with agents and potential trade partners while the camps for Encarnacion and fellow free-agent slugger Jose Bautista continued their dalliances with interested suitors. By no means have the sides disengaged from one another, but the sense is that the parties are talking to others much more deliberately than they are with each other.
“Edwin’s earned the right to do that and we certainly respect and understand why,” Atkins said late in the day at the Omni Scottsdale Resort and Spa. “We’ll do everything we can to build the best possible team and hope he can be a part of it, but we have to build the best possible team. We have to consider all alternatives, he will certainly be one of them, as will the other free agents, Jose as well. We’re excited about the discussions we’re having, and we’ll continue working toward having those guys return.”
Interest in Encarnacion is, obviously, high, even as the true intentions of the Boston Red Sox in regards to the slugger continue to be difficult to read. Bautista seems to make more sense for them given his willingness to play either corner in the outfield and infield, although there’s talk both the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees having interest in him, as well.
One rival executive suggested Bautista would be wise to accept the $17.2-million qualifying offer extended to him by the Blue Jays and return to the market next fall without draft-pick compensation, when the new collective bargaining is expected to eliminate the pick for players who take the QO. But there’s little chance that happens, as he seems positioned to find a better deal on the open market.
As that plays out, the Blue Jays are engaging with other players, with the likes of Dexter Fowler, Jon Jay, Josh Reddick, Kendrys Morales and Brandon Moss all believed to be among the free agents they’ve looked at.
Creativity will be key since 88, or 40 per cent, of the club’s 221 home runs in 2016 are now on the open market (Encarnacion’s 42, Bautista’s 22 and Michael Saunders’ 24). Making it more pressing, the Blue Jays scored 350, or 46 per cent, of their 759 runs via the long-ball, so they have lots of offence to recoup.
“Run creation and run prevention, just factoring in defence, too. It’s the total player and then it’s the total team,” Atkins replied when asked how the Blue Jays can bridge the gap. “Our home runs were [down slightly], our strikeouts were up, and we didn’t score as many runs as we did [in 2015], but our defence was exceptional and our pitching was exceptional. What we need to look to do is build upon the pitching depth, build our bullpen out better than we did a year ago, and then find a way to score more runs than we did last year.
“If we can do all three of those things, we’re going to be in a good situation and to me it’s not dependent on home runs. Having said that, I’d be perfectly comfortable if that’s how we built our team.”
Building out their pitching depth and strengthening the bullpen won’t be simple as the relief market seems to be developing fast.
Interest in Brett Cecil is very strong, according to industry sources, and the sense is that at minimum he’s getting a three-year deal. Fellow lefty Boone Logan is in a similar boat and the drop-off from there on the open market is significant.
Given the volatility in the performance of relievers and the number of other significant holes the Blue Jays need to patch, allocating a significant amount of dollars there is less than ideal. They’ll need at least one, if not two leverage relievers to support Roberto Osuna and Jason Grilli, and the uncertainty is one reason why the debate continues as to whether Joe Biagini will remain in the bullpen or be stretched out to serve as the starter depth they worryingly lack.
“He’s extremely open-minded as are we,” Atkins said of the right-hander’s role. “It will be contingent upon our whole team. We want to consider every avenue before we commit to that, and there’s no reason to commit to that right now.”
The trade market remains an intriguing avenue, especially with the Detroit Tigers looking to shed payroll and get younger and teams outside their competitive window looking to turn over their asset base. The Blue Jays could certainly take some money back in trade the way they did in picking up Francisco Liriano at the trade deadline, but the real gems will only come if they offer up one of their prime prospects.
That remains a tricky proposition for the Blue Jays, who lack upper level prospects – Rowdy Tellez will open the season at triple-A Buffalo while outfielder Dalton Pompey seems destined to return there – and really need them given the way their roster is aging.
“That’s a very fair question and it’s the one you’re constantly balancing,” said Atkins. “If we were to [trade a top prospect], I think it would be for one of two reasons. It would be for young, controllable talent that matches up better with the core [in place], or it would be for a value that just makes more sense for us to do given the window we have right now. I know that’s relatively vague, but we can’t close doors and we have to consider alternatives, and I feel like we’re in a slightly better position than we were a year ago to do that.”
At this point the Blue Jays have a much better idea of their options and it very much seems Encarnacion and Bautista – who have until Monday until 5 p.m. ET Nov. 14 to decide on the qualifying offer – are no closer to being among them.
