TORONTO – The Chicago Cubs struck first with their stealthy acquisition of Jose Quintana and several other contenders have followed suit with moves of their own well in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, as motivated buyers and prepared sellers are driving an aggressive market.
With names like J.D. Martinez, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and David Phelps also changing hands already, the ground is certainly shifting for teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, who aren’t looking to build up or strip down in the coming days.
Instead, they remain firmly on middle ground, intent on trying to add pieces with control beyond this season to retool the current core for another run at winning in 2018.
Sound opaque? Sure is, which is why it’s a good time for a deadline instalment of Blue Jays FAQs.
OK, so let’s get this straight, if they’re not buyers, and they’re not sellers, what on earth are they doing?
Good question. While the Blue Jays won’t be going all Chicago White Sox or Oakland Athletics in an attempt to maximize all their assets, they are exploring potential opportunities to extract value from pending free agents like Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith. Given that the first two have struggled and the latter is injured, they’re unlikely to hit the jackpot by trading them away, but things change fast, especially at this time of year.
To collect a real bonanza in prospect capital would require trading their most often speculated about assets – Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman (who several teams have asked about) and Roberto Osuna. Doing that for prospects would immediately send the franchise into a substantial reset, something the Blue Jays don’t want to do at this point.
[relatedlinks]
Why not? Hasn’t the front office been watching?
There’s no sugar-coating it, this season has been bad. Like, really, really bad. But remove emotion from the equation, and a reasonable case can be made that at least some of the mess and underperformance can be attributed to the team’s run of debilitating injuries, and that with a fresh start plus some new pieces sprinkled in, there could be a different outcome with the same core. Trading Donaldson, Stroman and Osuna for anything other than a commensurate big-league return means punting on 2018 and beyond. They’ll be sure to re-examine their options during the off-season since that’s when it’s most possible to get controllable major-league players in return. At the deadline, the primary currency is prospects.
Before going that route and really tearing the roster apart, why not take one more shot at winning in Donaldson’s final year of control, especially without a dominant rival in the American League East?
[snippet id=3526033]
Maybe, but look at the returns for relievers lately. Why not cash in Osuna?
It’s an interesting thought, but the immediate counterpoint is that it will be close to impossible to replace him. Still, maybe, just maybe, the Blue Jays might be tempted by a package of premium, close-to-the-majors prospects akin to what the New York Yankees received from the Cubs last year for Aroldis Chapman and from Cleveland for Andrew Miller.
Another factor to consider is that Osuna is on the verge of getting real expensive, real fast as he heads into his first year of arbitration eligibility. When you consider his career performance to date – a 2.51 ERA over 183 innings in 181 games with 80 saves, 12.1 strikeouts per nine, and a WHIP of 0.885 with two-plus months left – he may be positioned to break Jonathan Papelbon’s 2009 record of $6.25 million for a first-time eligible reliever. Papelbon headed into arbitration with a career 1.84 ERA in 230 innings over 202 games and 113 saves, a 0.930 WHIP and a 10.6 K/9.
A more recent comparable is Craig Kimbrel, who posted a 1.39 ERA in 227.1 innings over 231 innings with a 0.902 WHIP and a 15.1 K/9 over his first three seasons and filed for arbitration at $9 million, while the Atlanta Braves offered $6.55 million. The sides avoided a hearing by agreeing to a $42-million, four-year deal that paid him $7 million in the first year.
Factor in inflation, and Osuna will be getting a very massive raise, one he’s fully earned.
Whoa, that’s a big number. How is that going to impact the payroll?
Here’s another thing playing into the Blue Jays’ plan to retool – they’re going to have plenty of money to work with in the off-season, even after several sizable arbitration raises. Their payroll next year is expected to remain steady in its current $160 million range, and they have roughly $60 million coming off the books in the form of free agents Jose Bautista, Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano, Joe Smith, J.P. Howell, Darwin Barney and Miguel Montero, and the already departed Jason Grilli, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Melvin Upton.
Arbitration raises for Donaldson (who should end up north of $20 million), Osuna, Stroman, Sanchez, Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis, Ezequiel Carrera and Aaron Loup will eat into that financial flexibility.
But with only $75.375 million in guaranteed money to Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, J.A. Happ, Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce, Justin Smoak and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., general manager Ross Atkins will certainly have the resources with which to adjust the supporting cast around the core.
They’ll need one or two starters, one or two outfielders, a reliever or two, plus, potentially, a second baseman, depending on Travis’ progress, creating an opportunity to address some current issues.
But this roster isn’t getting any younger. What if injuries strike again and flush another year?
A very valid concern, and therein lies the risk to this approach. But the Blue Jays can also expect to have better depth at the upper levels of the farm system next year, with the possibility of Sean Reid-Foley, Conner Greene and Jon Harris graduating to the rotation at triple-A Buffalo with Gurriel (currently playing second at double-A New Hampshire), centre-fielder Anthony Alford and first baseman Rowdy Tellez (whose path currently seems somewhat blocked) in the mix to win big-league jobs.
Outfielders Dalton Pompey and Dwight Smith Jr., are possibilities as well, while shortstop Richard Urena, currently at double-A, has grinded through this season but could factor into the middle infield depth chart. Double-A catcher Danny Jansen has also emerged in a big way this year, and if he’s not knocking on the door in 2018, he’ll at least be approaching the porch.
Those are all options the Blue Jays didn’t have this year, and they could help bridge the gap between the current group and the coming Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette wave of talent without the pain of a full-scale teardown.