NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. – Value in baseball these days lies less in the eye of the beholder than in the equation on a spreadsheet, and it’s the safety of objectivity that can curb the subjective exuberance sometimes needed to get deals done. After all, free agency often requires teams to push beyond their walkway points because, as Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman put it, “If you’re always rational about free agents, you will finish third on every free agent.”
Still, there’s a balance to be struck on both the team and the player side in that regard, something three days of bargaining and balderdash at the winter meetings has reinforced.
The Toronto Blue Jays have so far kept their emotions at bay this off-season with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, pouncing to get Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce while positioning themselves to not overpay for prime target Dexter Fowler thanks to the number of alternatives still at their disposal.
The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be their main competition for the ideal-fit outfielder and leadoff man, but they’re also believed to be after Charlie Blackmon, whom the Colorado Rockies could flip after reaching a $70-million, five-year deal with Ian Desmond. If the Cards get Blackmon, or another centre-fielder in trade, than the Blue Jays probably get Fowler at their price-point. But if St. Louis doesn’t and they ink the Chicago Cubs star, general manager Ross Atkins will still have plenty of options to pick from.
That’s why Atkins intriguingly said the Blue Jays don’t feel like they need to move off their positions in unspecified negotiations. But there may come a point when, to use Friedman’s phrasing, some irrationality may be needed to ensure the player they really want doesn’t get away.
The challenge is in knowing when the ante must be upped to avoid needlessly overpaying.
“It’s a really good question, and that’s exactly how we structure it: OK, what is the surplus in the deal … what we’re getting and paying for the projected performance and what that costs on the market and what we’re actually paying for it,” Atkins explained. “Going beyond those levels suggests you’re overpaying based on your own information, any information you can use. Teams often do that. And we’ll often do that. And it will be based on person, teammate, fit. And when that happens, we’ll consider doing that. It’s an interesting question and really difficult to stay disciplined.”
Competitive window is a factor, too, and the Blue Jays are in one that will soon close if the right moves aren’t made. Already it seems like 2017 is wild-card or bust after the Boston Red Sox bolstered their already stacked roster with Chris Sale, Tyler Thornburg and Mitch Moreland. And if it hasn’t hit home yet, it’s time to accept that Encarnacion and Bautista won’t be Blue Jays in 2017.
Atkins came as close to out and out saying it’s over with Encarnacion on Wednesday when he said, “If there’s a way [to bring him back], I don’t see it, I don’t think Paul [Kinzer, Encarnacion’s agent] sees it either. But we haven’t stopped trying.”
That last part was being polite, since the Blue Jays are no longer in position to offer Encarnacion anything near the $80 million over four years he didn’t accept in early November, and they’ve since made moves aimed at life without him.
“It’s changed now for us because of our position, there are several challenges to do it,” he conceded. “Maximizing every position on your roster is one, so getting the most out of Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce and Justin Smoak and Edwin Encarnacion would be very difficult to do. That’s challenge No. 1. Then what that money spent means to what we don’t spend to acquire an outfielder and what are we doing at that position, and then what are we doing at some other positions at that level of dollar committed.”
There’s no apparent traction between the Blue Jays and Bautista, too, and while both players will eventually get their money, any extra motivation he and/or Encarnacion may have anticipated from the team to re-sign them didn’t translate beyond what’s been offered.
Other teams seem to be holding tight to their valuations on both players, as well, and irrationality can run on both sides of a negotiation. Perhaps, had everyone known in advance how the last month has played out, talks between the Blue Jays and Encarnacion might have ended differently.
“It’s hindsight,” said Atkins. “If we knew the market would be less for any given player, we would factor that in. How could you know that? I don’t know the best way to think about that. What I can say is I feel good about our strategy that we used, and we really won’t know until halfway through this summer and next summer and the summer after that.”
So the Blue Jays – believing there’s upside on the current roster in Aaron Sanchez, Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar, Smoak, Morales and some of their youngsters in bullpens – are left waiting for Fowler to play out. And if not him, some combination of Ben Revere, Michael Saunders, Brandon Moss, Bobby Wilson, Geovany Soto, Chris Iannetta and some relievers. Or perhaps a trade for a player making some money a team is looking to get rid of and requires little prospect capital in return.
The seismic swaps pulled off by the Red Sox for Sale and Thornburg and Washington, which picked up Adam Eaton from the White Sox for Lucas Giolito, baseball’s top-ranked pitching prospect, plus right-handers Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning aren’t in their reach right now.
“When we’ve been engaged in those types of [deals] – Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, those deals, we tried, we’re in – teams have asked for players from our major-league team,” said Atkins. “Our system just isn’t good enough yet to land that type of deal.
“We’ll get there, we’ll be there, that’s part of what our strategy is now, to get to that point where we could land that calibre of player without taking away from our major-league team.”
And the Blue Jays will act on that strategy trusting in their ability to set the right value points, hoping to maintain a winning team that on occasion will have reason to get a little crazy.
