Mark Shapiro, president and CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays, is getting his wish: His current team will face off against the one he used to run, Cleveland, in the American League Championship Series starting Friday at Progressive Field. These two teams are closely matched, but which one has the advantage, at least on paper? Here’s a look by position.
OUTFIELD
Toronto’s outfield will include Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr. (Bautista will likely DH when Marco Estrada takes the mound Friday, allowing the Blue Jays to use their most defensively strong fielders).
Cleveland, meanwhile, is likely to employ Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Rajai Davis and Coco Crisp. (Both Toronto’s Michael Saunders and Cleveland’s Brandon Guyer could see time in the outfield as well.)
These two outfields have put up numbers so similar overall that it’s close to a tie, but Pillar is easily the best defensive player amongst both teams’ starters, pushing Toronto over the top.
EDGE: TORONTO
FIRST BASE
Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion continues to put up eye-popping numbers. The 33-year-old posted an OPS of 1.417 across Toronto’s three ALDS games. His OPS+ this season was 133 (league average, for context, is 100), while his FanGraphs WAR was a healthy 3.9.
Cleveland’s Mike Napoli, by contrast, posted an OPS of .417 across his team’s three ALDS games, while his OPS+ on the season was 104 and his FanGraphs WAR was 1.0.
EDGE: TORONTO
SECOND BASE
It isn’t yet clear when Devon Travis, who is suffering from a bone bruise on his right knee, will be ready to return to the lineup for Toronto. On Tuesday, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons indicated the 25-year-old is feeling better and could make the roster. If he isn’t healthy, Darwin Barney will fill in at second base.
Regardless of whom Toronto selects, Cleveland has the stronger option at second base: Jason Kipnis posted a FanGraphs WAR of 4.8 this season. He also put up solid numbers across Cleveland’s three ALDS games, with an OPS of 1.053.
EDGE: CLEVELAND
SHORTSTOP
Toronto fans are used to seeing some sparkling defensive play from Blue Jays shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. But Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor is having a Gold Glove–calibre season. Lindor posted a FanGraphs WAR of 6.3 this year, and an Ultimate Zone Rating of 20.8 (second in the majors behind San Francisco’s Brandon Crawford). Tulowitzki, by contrast, has a WAR of 3.8 and a UZR of 4.9.
The two shortstops have posted similar offensive stats on the season: Lindor’s OPS+ was 104, while Tulowitzki’s was 101. Across three ALDS games, Tulowitzki fared better with his bat: His OPS was 1.308 compared to Lindor’s .833. The sample size, of course, is small.
EDGE: CLEVELAND
THIRD BASE
Josh Donaldson, last year’s AL MVP, led all AL third basemen in WAR this season with a rating of 7.6 (only the Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant has a higher number amongst third basemen in the majors at 8.4).
Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez has put up good numbers this season, slashing .312/.363/.462, but he’s no “Bringer of Rain,” whose OPS+ during the regular season was a whopping 152.
EDGE: TORONTO
CATCHER
Russell Martin’s OPS+ on the season was just 96, but the veteran’s game-calling proved invaluable for the Blue Jays.
Cleveland’s starting catcher this season, Yan Gomes, spent two months on the DL and did not make an appearance in the ALDS, although he was named to the roster. Instead, Roberto Perez continued on as Cleveland’s backstop, and while his regular-season numbers were fairly terrible — his OPS+ was just 51 — he had a monster divisional series versus the Boston Red Sox, posting an OPS of .919 and providing valuable defensive support with his pitch-framing. Still, the sample size is tiny.
EDGE: TORONTO
DESIGNATED HITTER
During the 2016 post-season thus far, Gibbons has continued to show a willingness to choose his DH depending on matchups. Bautista spent two of three games in the ALDS at right field, acting as DH only when Estrada got the start. That’s likely to be the case in the ALCS, which means Saunders will probably spend the most time at DH.
The British Columbia native posted an OPS+ of 115 this season. He made six plate appearances across two games in the ALDS, recording one hit and a walk.
Cleveland’s Carlos Santana made the most starts at DH for his team this season. The 30-year-old posted slightly better numbers than Saunders with a 121 OPS+.
Santana didn’t fare so well with his bat during the ALDS, with an OPS of .432 across 12 plate appearances. But, again, the sample size is small.
EDGE: CLEVELAND
ROTATION
Both Toronto and Cleveland have strong starting rotations. Cleveland has been missing Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar to injury, but the team boasts one of the league’s best starters in Corey Kluber. Kluber, a Cy Young candidate, is arguably the strongest starter between both teams — while Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez posted a league-leading ERA, Kluber posted a league-leading FIP of 3.26.
Behind Kluber, though, Cleveland has less depth than the Blue Jays. The team is likely to carry Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger (with Kluber, if necessary, taking the mound for Game 4 and possibly even Game 7). Clevinger is the most inexperienced of the group, the rookie has yet to make a post-season appearance.
The Blue Jays, by contrast, have better overall numbers. Estrada will take the mound for Game 1, and he’ll be followed by a strong group: J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and Sanchez.
EDGE: TORONTO
BULLPEN
While Toronto’s bullpen contributed in huge ways over the team’s three ALDS games — with closer Roberto Osuna especially providing key outs for the team — Cleveland has more depth amongst their relievers. The team is also in a unique situation: Along with closer Cody Allen, the team has one of baseball’s best relievers in Andrew Miller, who is capable of providing multiple innings of work.
Cleveland will likely employ some mix of Allen and Miller along with Bryan Shaw, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister, Jeff Manship and Cody Anderson. Salazar could make the roster as a relief option. Out with a forearm injury since Sept. 9, Salazar threw a bullpen session on Monday.
The Blue Jays are likely to employ much of the same mix of relievers as they did in the ALDS. The biggest question mark is Francisco Liriano, who is currently sidelined with a concussion, though he said Tuesday that he expects to be ready this weekend.
EDGE: CLEVELAND
MANAGER
Across nine regular seasons managing in the majors, Gibbons has a .512 record. Cleveland manager Terry Francona has a record of .533 across 16 seasons. He was also named AL Manager of the Year in 2013, and has managed his teams to two pennants and two World Series titles.
EDGE: CLEVELAND
OVERALL: This one’s a tie. Across 10 categories, Toronto and Cleveland each fare better in five, so fans can expect an extended series. Remember, though, that a manager’s skills are given equal weight here when compared to the other nine categories. Depending on how much significance one assigns to the manager, Toronto might have a very slight edge.
