Breaking down potential playoff scenarios for Blue Jays

Blue Jays free agent Jose Bautista clubs a two-run home run. (Elise Amendola/AP)

BOSTON – Before Saturday evening’s game against the Red Sox, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons had a meeting with general manager Ross Atkins and assistant GM Joe Sheehan in which a myriad of potential tiebreaker scenarios were discussed.

Going into Saturday’s game, the Blue Jays still controlled their own destiny as far as the playoffs are concerned. If they win their games (including a possible Game 163 against the Tigers on Tuesday should the Jays and Detroit be tied for the second wild card behind Baltimore and ahead of Seattle), they’ll play in the wild card game no matter what anyone else does.

A Game 163 against Detroit would take place in Toronto, since the Blue Jays won the season series against the Tigers four games to three.

If the Blue Jays and Orioles wind up tied for the two wild cards, with Detroit and Seattle falling short, the wild card game would take place in Toronto.

The Jays do not hold the tiebreaker advantage with the Mariners, so if a Game 163 is needed between Toronto and Seattle in order to decide the final wild card spot, behind the Orioles, the Blue Jays would head to Safeco Field (a.k.a. Rogers Centre West) to try to win a chance to go to Baltimore to play another sudden-death affair.

As for the scenarios in which the Blue Jays are tied with more than one team after 162, well, here you go:

BAL (89), TOR (88), DET (88), SEA (88):
The Orioles would win the first wild card and there would be a three-team tournament for the second spot. The Blue Jays would be seeded first, Detroit second and Seattle third owing to the fact that in games the three tied teams played against each other, the Jays went 7-6, the Tigers 7-7 and the Mariners 6-7.

The Blue Jays would have first choice of being Team A, B or C in the tournament. Team A would host Team B on Tuesday, with the winner hosting Team C on Wednesday. The question for the Blue Jays is, would you want to have to win two sudden-death games at home or just one on the road?

BAL (88), TOR (88), SEA (88), DET (86 or 87):
The seeding in this case would be Seattle, Toronto and Baltimore because the Blue Jays and Mariners split their season series with each other and both beat the Orioles in their season series. Seattle gets the tiebreaker advantage over the Blue Jays because in the scenario in which they both wind up with 88 wins, the Mariners would have the better record in intra-division games.

If this happens, the Mariners get first choice of whether to be Team A, B or C and the Blue Jays would choose second.

Since this is a tie for the top wild card spot, as opposed to for the second, the winner of the first game becomes the first wild card, with the losing team going on the road for a second chance at yet another one-game playoff.

BAL(88/89), TOR (88/89), DET (88/89), SEA (less than that):
The Blue Jays own the top seed in this three-way tie because they won the season series against both the Orioles and Tigers and Baltimore beat Detroit head-to-head.

BAL (88), TOR (88), DET (88), SEA (88):
A four-team tie isn’t either as complicated or as much fun as you would think. If this scenario should happen, the teams would be seeded with Seattle (12-8) first, followed by the Blue Jays (17-15), Orioles (15-18) and Tigers (9-12) owing to their overall records in games the four teams played against each other.

The Mariners would choose first whether to be Team A, B, C or D, then the Blue Jays and so on. Team A would host Team B and Team C would host Team D on Tuesday with the winners of those games advancing to the wild card game on Wednesday.

One would think the Mariners and Blue Jays would both choose to play at home, which means that the Orioles would then have the choice of whether to go to Toronto or Seattle to try to win their way into the wild card game, leaving the Tigers to head to the other city.

When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.