TORONTO — So, what did the Blue Jays sign themselves up for with Jose Bautista?
A franchise icon? There is no doubt. The best Blue Jays position player of all time in terms of wins above replacement, Bautista’s name and number will someday grace the level of excellence that rings around Rogers Centre—and rightfully so.
One of the best hitters in baseball over the last seven years? Absolutely. Since 2010, Bautista is a top 10 hitter in any offensive category worth caring about, and leads baseball with 249 home runs.
A complete player who can produce elite numbers in 2017? The Blue Jays think so. And we’re all about to find out.
At 36, Bautista was the strangest of first-time free agents. A player with a Wolf of Wall Street persona, carrying an unbelievable track record into a market that wasn’t valuing his abilities the way it once did, on the heels of a platform season that left many wanting. He is a rare talent in today’s game who may finish his career with more than 400 home runs, a career OPS approaching .870, and less than $150 million earned. As Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins put it Thursday, after announcing his one-year, $18-million pact with the slugger: “Jose, at 35-years-old, had one of his worst years in eight years. And that’s a tough thing for a free agent of that age. It could have had some impact on the market.”
Yes, it’s fair to argue that Bautista having his worst overall season since his startling breakout in 2010 cost him a whole lot of money. Baseball is, and forever will be, cruel. But was that 2016 season—still a very good one for a mere mortal, it should be said—a sign of things to come? Or was it merely an aberration? Let’s take a closer look.
Bautista has undoubtedly been declining defensively as he ages into his late 30s, as ballplayers tend to do. Once an outfielder with a universally feared arm who posted 12 defensive runs saved across 2012 and 2013 to go along with good ultimate zone rating marks, Bautista hasn’t put up a positive figure in either of those stat columns since. Last season’s defensive grades were especially alarming, as Bautista earned a -8 DRS, which was among the bottom 20 outfielders in baseball. His arm especially does not seem to be what it once was. Bautista averaged 11.1 outfield assists per season from 2009 through ’14. He has just nine over his last two seasons combined.
Defensive declines, of course, can be managed. Players can switch positions. The American League affords a designated hitter, although that station is occupied in Toronto for the next three years by the leg-locked Kendrys Morales. Still—if you can hit, you can play. But last year Bautista didn’t hit like himself either.
While Bautista’s walk rate remained stable as ever, his strikeout rate surged by four per cent from 2015 to ‘16 and he lost nearly 100 points off his OPS. Still a well above average hitter with a .355 wOBA and 122 wRC+, the 2016 Bautista was nowhere near the elite standard of production he set for himself over the six years prior when he was routinely among the top 10 hitters in baseball in any advanced statistic you like.
Of course, you have to consider the fact that Bautista was rarely right physically throughout 2016. He came into the season still experiencing the effects of a shoulder injury he suffered in 2015 on a throw to first base during a contentious game against the Baltimore Orioles. Then, in June, he slammed his foot into a wall trying to make a catch in Philadelphia and missed 30 games with a toe injury. Just two weeks after he returned, Bautista caught a spike on the Rogers Centre turf attempting a throw to the infield and damaged his left knee, which sent him straight back to the DL. When he came back two weeks later, Bautista split his time between the outfield and designated hitter as he continued to rehab the injury.
While he did everything he could to remain on the field, it’s hard not to draw a line between Bautista’s down year at the plate and his string of physical struggles. Lower half injures are extremely disruptive for power hitters like Bautista, who rely on generating a great deal of force, torque and explosiveness with their legs. And you could see it in his results as his batted balls became less and less dynamic. Bautista posted an average exit velocity of 93.6-mph and hit the ball an average of 235-feet in 2015. In 2016? He averaged 92.6-mph and 222-feet.
For his part, Atkins is optimistic Bautista’s 2016 was a crevasse—not a cliff. “His health was not 100 per cent last year,” Atkins said. “Going forward, I think it’s more likely that he has the 2015 season than it is that he has the 2016 season. Because I think that was health related.”
Atkins and other Blue Jays brass went to personally watch Bautista work out earlier this off-season—with a particularly keen eye on his shoulder mechanics—and the Blue Jays GM says he was extremely encouraged by what he saw. He thinks there’s reason to believe Bautista’s arm is in the best shape it’s been since 2014. When the Blue Jays ran Bautista through a physical earlier this week, he showed no lingering effects of the shoulder, knee or toe injuries that dogged him throughout last season. “Our physical of him was like the physical of a player in his early career. There was nothing significant, nothing substantial,” Atkins said. “You don’t often times have that type of information or access to a player. So, we have a lot of confidence that he’s in a very good position physically.”
So, Atkins believes Bautista will be back to his old self in 2017, and the projection systems certainly agree with him. ZiPs has Bautista being worth 3.1 WAR this year, projecting an OPS of .868 and a .371 wOBA, which would have put Bautista among the top 25 hitters in baseball last year. Steamer is slightly less optimistic—projecting 2.6 WAR, .855 OPS and .366 wOBA—but still sees Bautista far out-performing his 2016 results. The Blue Jays surely have their own proprietary projection math, which they would have used to value Bautista’s contract. Assuming the going rate for a win on the open market is around $8 million, Bautista’s $18-million figure suggests they expect him to be worth north of 2 WAR.
And you can be sure that Bautista feels he’s going to have a season much more like his six all-star campaigns than his walk year. He’s one of the most obstinate, self-assured athletes in the game, and also one of the most diligent when it comes to conditioning and nutrition. This is a player who has spoken about defying modern aging curves and remaining productive into his 40s; a player who thrives on emotion and testiness and doubt; a player whose response to stressful situations has often been an increase in performance.
No matter what happens, the Blue Jays have structured Bautista’s contract in such a way—with a mutual option for 2018 and a vesting option behind it—that they’re protected against both dominance and disaster. They can re-up if he’s himself again; walk away if he’s not. Likewise, if Bautista does what he thinks he will, he can test the market again next winter, or opt for the $17 million mutual option, provided the Blue Jays are interested, too. “We would love to have him here for four or five years,” Atkins said. “That would mean that he’s performing extremely well.”
What did the Blue Jays sign up for with one more year—at least—of Jose Bautista? It’s nearly time to find out.