AL EAST
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
It had been 14 seasons since the Orioles last made the playoffs, or finished above .500 for that matter. But manager Buck Showalter weaved the same magic that worked with the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks in the past and the Orioles responded.
Riding a deep and airtight bullpen, they were plus-24 in the win column from the year before, thanks in most part to an unbelievable 29-9 record in one-run games. Adam Jones finally played to his potential, setting career-highs in every offensive category. No reason to believe he can’t replicate those numbers in 2013. The Orioles have to hope that catcher Matt Wieters can also enjoy a breakout season to stay in what appears to be a tight AL East playoff race.
Another key will be reliever Jim Johnson, who transitioned from an effective middle man to stud closer, converting 51-of-54 save opportunities. The Orioles are banking on a return to form for Brian Roberts after missing 371 games over the last three seasons with concussion and hip injuries.
BOSTON RED SOX
The Bobby Valentine era lasted all of one season, and that was about right. When it was apparent that the clubhouse was badly divided, GM Ben Cherington was able to get the deep-pocketed Los Angeles Dodgers to take more than $250 million off their books in a late August deal.
To replace Bobby V, the Red Sox “traded” for Toronto Blue Jays manager John Farrell, who they had coveted since Terry Francona stepped down after the 2011 season. For the team to be competitive, Dustin Pedroia must be healthy, something that didn’t happen a year ago when a hand injury caused his OPS to drop 64 points.
David Ortiz’s Achilles tendon injury, which limited him to just 90 games last season, continues to keep him off the field and he’ll start the season on the disabled list. Joel Hanrahan comes over from the Pirates — where he saved 76 games over the last two seasons — and it will be interesting to see how he handles pitching in Fenway Park after allowing 8 home runs in closing situations last season.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Age and injuries have long been the great equalizers, and the Yankees begin the 2013 season having cornered the market on both.
Alex Rodriguez (hip), Mark Teixeira (wrist) and Curtis Granderson (forearm fracture) will miss at least the first two months, while Derek Jeter (ankle) and Phil Hughes (back) will likely start the season on the DL. The only good news on the injury front is that the greatest closer of all-time, Mariano Rivera, is healthy and will return for his final MLB season.
Robinson Cano is in the prime of his career and is currently on a streak of four straight seasons with a .300 average and 25 home runs. Oh yeah, and he’s entering the final year of his current contract so motivation should not be a problem. It will be interesting to see if a MLB-leading 1,158 innings over the last five seasons will finally catch up to CC Sabathia, who turns 33 this summer.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Every summer, the expectation is that the Rays will return to earth after economics force them to send established stars to other teams in return for younger, less expensive players.
This winter was no different when they traded workhorse starter James Shields to Kansas City in return for top prospect Wil Myers, who tore thru the minors last season to the tune of .314, 37 home runs and, 109 RBIs.
Cy Young award winner David Price is the type of pitcher that keeps his team from going on an extended losing streak. His 25 quality starts last season tied with Justin Verlander for most in the American League. Sophomore Matt Moore is expected to fill Shields’ cleats after winning 11 games in his first full MLB season. He projects out to a 15-game winner with more than a strikeout per inning. If Evan Longoria can stay in the lineup — he’s missed 163 games since his debut in 2008 — he might be poised for an MVP-type season.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
No team was more active this off-season than Canada’s lone team. After they finished 2012 with just 73 wins, and their manager left for his “dream job” in Boston, general manager Alex Anthopoulos dipped into his deep cache of prospects to overhaul his rotation, bring in a true lead-off hitter who also happens to be a former N.L. batting champion, and deepen a bench that was non-existent last season.
They also brought back a manager from their past, hiring John Gibbons, just the type of no-nonsense, old-school skipper that their former manager wasn’t.
The acquisitions of R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, joining holdovers Brandon Morrow and J.A. Happ, give the Blue Jays their deepest rotation in two decades. With Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio and Rajai Davis on the roster — 116 combined steals last season –Gibbons won’t have to rely solely on the long ball. The bullpen is not as deep as last season, but if the starters go as deep as expected, that may not be an issue.
AL CENTRAL
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
With Robin Ventura replacing volatile Ozzie Guillen as bench boss, the White Sox responded by finishing second, and stuck with the front-running Detroit Tigers right until the final week of the season.
Chris Sale made the transition from hard-throwing reliever to 17-game winning ace. He was especially hard on left-handed hitters, striking out one in four while allowing just two home runs. The rollercoaster career of Alex Rios was back on the upswing, setting career-highs with 25 home runs and 91 RBIs. But if his career remains true to form, this will be a down season. In even numbered years he’s a .294 hitter, and .260 in odd years
Finally healthy, Jake Peavy showed that he can still be a workhorse starter, topping the 200-inning plateau for the first time since 2007 when he won the NL Cy Young award. They have to hope they can squeeze one more year out of Paul Konerko – who had his 10th career 25-plus home run season in 2012 — if they hope to contend.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
After years of building from within, a 93-loss season in 2012 forced them to dip into free agency to upgrade a flagging offence. Unfortunately, they may have grossly overpaid.
Michael Bourn was signed just before the start of spring training. He’s fleet of foot — his 257 since the start of 2008 is 55 more than the next closest player — but he’s also a strikeout machine with 295 whiffs over the last two seasons. Nick Swisher was a nice, complimentary player on the superstar-filled Yankees roster, but he’ll be expected to be a big-time producer with the Indians.
The team needs to decide where Carlos Santana is best suited to play. Offensively, his career splits say first base, where his OPS is 69 points higher, but the sample size is smaller when he plays without the equipment on. Closer Chris Perez has only blown 12 saves over the last three seasons, but his ERA has risen from 1.71 to 3.59 over that time.
DETROIT TIGERS
This is the team to beat in this division, if not the entire league. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer finished 1-2 last season in strikeouts and Rick Porcello, still just 24 with four full seasons under his belt, appears poised to take it to the next level. The three are projected to win 50 games.
Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and clean-up slugger Prince Fielder could easily combine to hit 75 home runs and 140 RBIs between them. If Victor Martinez is fully recovered from the knee problems that cost him the entire 2012 season, the middle of this line-up should be beastly.
Their biggest question mark is at closer where fireballer Bruce Rondon, who blazed his way thru three levels in the minors in 2012, was surprisingly sent down to triple-A Thursday. Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel would be next in line, but neither have the stuff to be a dominant closer.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
It’s been 27 seasons since the Royals last sniffed the post-season when they won the 1985 World Series. Don’t expect 2013 to be any different.
With a starting rotation that was one of just five to post an ERA over 5.00 last season, they went out this off-season and brought in Ervin Santana on a free-agent deal, and traded to bring in James Shields and Wade Davis. The deal with Tampa Bay was costly, though, as they were forced to give up super prospect Wil Myers. Shields steps out of Price’s big shadow and will be expected to eat up innings.
Royals fans should expect a lot of souvenirs this summer. Shields, Santana and holdover Jeremy Guthrie have ranked in the top three in home runs allowed by AL pitchers since the start of the 2007 season.
Much more is expected, still, from Alex Gordon, who has gone from can’t miss prospect to average Major Leaguer. Poor health has been his biggest downfall. Eric Hosmer was figured out in his sophomore season with an OPS that fell 136 points.
MINNESOTA TWINS
These are lean times for this former perennial playoff contender. After winning the division in 2010 with 94 wins, they have fallen into the basement 99 and 96 loss seasons over the last two years. Much of the same is expected in 2013.
A healthy Justin Morneau would certainly cut into the losses. A concussion suffered in 2010 cost him parts of two seasons, and then wrist and forearm problems limited him to 134 games in 2012. At age 32, he appears to be at the crossroads of his solid career.
Joe Mauer remains the face of the franchise, and while he’s under contract through 2018 at $23 million per season, it may be best for the organization to deal him sooner rather later to expedite a proper rebuild.
After bouncing from three organizations in his first eight years, it appears Josh Willingham has finally found a home in the Twin Cities. He has flourished in pitcher-friendly Target Field, hitting 21-of-35 home run last season at home. Only the Blue Jays gave up more homers as a pitching staff last year.
NL WEST
HOUSTON ASTROS
Welcome to the American League. Too bad their roster resembles that of a triple-A team. And with a payroll hovering in the $20 million range, this first season in the AL West will be forgettable. At least the rest of the division, especially those clubs in the Wild Card hunt, will be able to pile up some bonus wins.
Rookie manager Bo Porter must remember that team is at the beginning of a major rebuild and remain positive, no matter how bad it gets. Baseball’s version of the ‘Island of Misfit Toys’ will have a 5-foot-5 lead-off hitter in Jose Altuve, a No. 3 three hitter that strikes out once every 3.1 at-bats in Carlos Pena, and a DH in Brett Wallace, once traded in a deal for Roy Halladay, but now playing for his fourth organization after just five years in pro ball.
Canadian Erik Bedard will get ample opportunity to get his career back on the rails after injuries caused him to miss the entire 2010 season. He has made 48 starts since.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
There’s a lot to like about the “other” team in Los Angeles, even if they do still play in Anaheim. They have Mike Trout — arguably the game’s best all-around player — hitting lead-off, and they found a way to sign slugger Josh Hamilton as a free agent to hit in between Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo.
The top of their rotation is fronted by Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, and have a fireballing closer in Ernesto Fieri with a sub-1.00 WHIP and an AL-leading 13.25 strikeouts per 9 innings. Trout, who finished second for MVP last season in an old school vs. new school stats stand-off, has the ability to become the first 50-50 player in MLB history.
Hamilton blasted a career-best 43 dingers a year ago, and his .952 OPS over the last three seasons is third-best in the AL. Pujols didn’t hit his first homer as Angel until his 28th game, yet still finished with 30 for the 12th straight season, and drove in 100-plus runs for the 11th time.
For Wilson to return to his pre-Angel successes, he must cut down on the long ball. He served up a career-high 19, and saw his ERA jump over four for the first time as a starter.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
A lot went right for the Athletics in 2012, no more impressive than the MLB-record 54 wins that they received from their rookie pitchers. They should be right in the mix again this season unless their rotation suffers the dreaded sophomore slum.
The same can be said for Yoenis Cespedes, whose first professional season in North America saw him finish with a line of .292/.356/.505 with 23 home runs and 16 steals. At 27, he’s entering his prime and is on the cusp of superstardom.
The Athletics have to hope that players with health issues like Coco Crisp and Jed Lowrie can stay in the lineup. If not, the lack of organizational depth will be exposed and the wins will dwindle. They also have to hope that Japanese-import shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima can adapt to the American game, something that few Pacific rim middle infielders have been able to accomplish in the past.
Ageless starter Bartolo Colon posted his lowest ERA in a decade, but in his age 40 season, how much does he really have left?
SEATTLE MARINERS
For the Mariners to contend in the A.L. West, it is imperative that they receive a major production upsurge from their corners, both infield and outfield.
Justin Smoak finally started to live up to his potential, blasting 15 dingers on the road. But his offence at home was anaemic — four homers, and an OPS 185 points lower at Safeco Field — and oft-injured Kendrys Morales has been brought in to give him a pus.
Another new/old power source is Mike Morse, who began his career in the Pacific Northwest and finally found his stroke in 2010 with the Nationals — .303, 31 home runs, 95 RBIs, .910 OPS — only to get lost in the shuffle last season. If he can return to those lofty numbers, it will bolster the everyday lineup.
Felix Hernandez is still one of the elite starters in the game — 1.14 WHIP since 2009 (third-lowest in the AL) – but after him the drop-off is considerable for Seattle.
TEXAS RANGERS
The losses of Josh Hamilton and Michael Young have weakened the Rangers’ potent offence, but the hope is that the veteran bats of Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski can offset those losses.
Few players have enjoyed hitting in Arlington like Adrian Beltre. His 43 home runs and 1.025 OPS since joining the Rangers in 2011 tops all Texas hitters and his 116 RBI is second only to Hamilton. He will be expected to pick up some of the slack.
Over the last two seasons, only Cano has more extra-base hits among MLB second basemen than Ian Kinsler. His continuation of this trend is imperative if the Rangers can remain in contention
Yu Darvish was the talk of baseball a year ago, after the Rangers outbid a host of teams for the Japanese star’s services. And he didn’t disappoint, finishing with 16 wins, and closing out his first season in North America with eight straight quality starts, an 0.87 WHIP and a .176 opponents’ average.
STATSMAN’S NON-BINDING PREDICTIONS
(* WILD CARD)
EAST
RAYS
BLUE JAYS*
YANKEES
ORIOLES
RED SOX
CENTRAL
TIGERS
ROYALS
INDIANS
WHITE SOX
TWINS
WEST
ANGELS
RANGERS*
ATHLETICS
MARINERS
ASTROS
WILD CARD
BLUE JAYS def. RANGERS
DIVISION SERIES
TIGERS def. RAYS
ANGELS def. BLUE JAYS
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
ANGELS def. TIGERS
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
MIKE TROUT, Angels
CY YOUNG AWARD
JUSTIN VERLANDER, Tigers
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
WIL MYERS, Rays
MANAGER OF THE YEAR
JOE MADDON, Rays