Going into the off-season one of the top priorities for the Toronto Blue Jays was bolstering a bullpen that went from one of the best units in the league in 2013 to one of the worst last season.
With Spring Training winding down it appears that only two relievers who made the 2014 opening day roster — Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup — are locks to travel north with the team this year. In that sense, the team has achieved a much-needed overhaul of its relief core
But the way the Blue Jays went about it is highly unorthodox. As opposed to signing or trading for established veterans they opted to give two spots to talented rookies Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna.
The duo has dazzled this spring, combining for 22 innings pitched with 22 strikeouts, only three walks and three runs allowed.
Castro demonstrated elite velocity and could thrive in a similar role to the one Aaron Sanchez played last year for the Jays, specializing in multi-inning stints with heavy fastball usage. Manager John Gibbons told reporters Castro could be the team’s Dellin Betances, a reference to the New York Yankees bullpen ace who led all relievers last season with 3.1 WAR. Castro certainly looked the part at times, like when he struck out All-Star third baseman Evan Longoria.
Osuna was not considered a likely candidate to crack the Blue Jays roster this spring, but he never seemed out of his depth. He exhibited not only an impressive fastball, but also swing-and-miss secondary offerings including a deceptive change-up.
Both pitchers are tantalizing talents, and it is easy to dream on them being impact arms for the Blue Jays this season, but their lack of experience cannot be overlooked. While pitchers moving from class-A to the major leagues is not unheard of, 20-year-olds rarely make that leap.
Since 2000 only 32 pitchers have appeared at the MLB level at that age or younger. Only 21 of those pitchers appeared out of the bullpen. Their average output was unremarkable.
| IP | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.1 | 8.34 | 4.34 | 1.92 | 4.09 |
As a group, the pitchers posted above-average strikeout rates, poor control and uninspiring overall results. But the number that stands out is the innings pitched.
Many of the pitchers on this list are actually starting pitchers who were used in relief to help prepare them for the following season, limit their innings, or prepare them to be deployed as a late-inning playoff weapon. There are some prominent pitchers who fit that description.
| Player | Year | Team |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2008 | Dodgers |
| Madison Bumgarner | 2009 | Giants |
| Scott Kazmir | 2004 | Devil Rays |
| Carlos Zambrano | 2001 | Cubs |
| Julio Teheran | 2011 | Braves |
| Jon Garland | 2000 | White Sox |
| Rick Ankiel | 2000 | Cardinals |
This pattern is consistent with what the Blue Jays have done in recent years, as Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Daniel Norris all debuted out of the bullpen before starting. In the long term Castro and Osuna may also be considered for starting jobs.
It also means that the list of pitchers 20 and younger to make relief appearances in the major leagues in recent years does not necessarily offer good comparables for the Blue Jays young duo.
In fact, of the 21 pitchers their age or younger to come out of the bullpen in the last 15 years only four managed even 20 innings in the major leagues, making them the closest approximation of the full-time relievers the Blue Jays hope Castro and Osuna can become.
| Player | Year | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Carvajal | 2005 | 53 | 7.98 | 3.57 | 5.09 | 4.57 |
| Jenrry Mejia | 2010 | 27.2 | 5.53 | 4.88 | 3.25 | 4.74 |
| Chad Gaudin | 2003 | 25.2 | 7.01 | 2.81 | 3.16 | 4.04 |
| Ryan Wagner | 2003 | 21.2 | 10.38 | 4.95 | 1.66 | 3.59 |
The sample here is far too small to draw conclusions, what’s more significant is how few relievers 20 and younger have logged significant innings out of the bullpen. Since 2000 the only one to do it from April to September is Carvajal, and even that case was special because he was a Rule 5 draftee and the Colorado Rockies had to keep him on the major league team or else return him to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
By carrying Castro and Osuna on their opening day roster the Blue Jays are making a major bet on talent over experience and historical precedent. Both pitchers have been Grapefruit League revelations, but the team is in uncharted waters counting on pitchers who weren’t born the last time they made the playoffs.
