Hands up if you had this American League Championship Series matchup before the start of the season. Thought so. Hell … hands up if you predicted the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles in the ALCS before the start of the AL Division Series.
This is a matchup of extremes: one team runs wild and can’t hit home runs; the other can’t run but hits homers for fun. One manager is considered something of a Looney Tune; the other is considered a model of detailed planning and bullpen use.
This could come down to a battle of the bullpens, but it’s a wonderfully layered series that could make a few reputations.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Watch the ALCS on Sportsnet Friday starting at 7 p.m. EST.
J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles
The Royals force opposition infielders to be active, and in addition to testing Hardy’s defence, the Royals’ dominant right-handed starters and relievers will be tough against Hardy and others in a righty-heavy Orioles lineup. But Hardy has done OK against the Royals, and has a .297 average and .886 OPS with nine extra-base hits (including four homers) at Kauffman Stadium.
Kelvin Herrera, RHP, Royals
Herrera’s availability will be an ongoing concern, especially if this series turns into a long one: Herrera went from June 24-Sept. 16 without allowing an earned run, then suffered a slight flexor tendon strain in his right forearm in the American League Wild Card playoff before hitting triple digits in Game 3 of the ALDS. Considering manager Ned Yost’s iron-clad rules for using his top relievers, uncertainty could be deadly.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
Mike Trout? Gone. Bryce Harper? Gone. Hosmer and Mike Moustakas don’t get the attention of either of those two young stars but they’ve been the crown jewels of the Royals’ farm system for a while and now that patience might be paying off. Hosmer was out all of August with a fractured hand (during which the team went 19-11) and had a surprisingly high ratio of ground balls to fly balls for a middle of the order hitter. But he’s turned it around in the playoffs, and his presence might force Orioles manager Buck Showalter’s hand and lead him to add another left-handed reliever to his bullpen.
Caleb Joseph/Nick Hundley, C, Orioles
The Royals stole five bases in their three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, seven in the play-in game. Joseph has thrown out 23 of 57 base-stealers this year (40.4 percent) compared to Hundley’s 13.9 percent. Using FanGraphs analytics, the combination of Joseph’s defence and offence has been worth eight runs; Hundley’s combination is minus-four.
Salvador Perez, C, Royals
He was on fumes offensively for the second half, swinging at 44.1 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (among the most in the Majors) en route to catching 1,248 2/3 regular-season innings, the most in the Majors by 56 1/3 over Jonathan Lucroy of the Milwaukee Brewers. Perez, who took a blow to the head in Game 2 of the ALDS, will profit from the four-day break more than any other player in the series. His defence and game-calling will be crucial and he likes hitting at Camden Yards, with two home runs, two doubles and a .281 average in 32 at bats. He could be a difference-maker.
Chris Tillman, RHP, Orioles
The anticipated Game 1 starter has held Royals hitters to a .216 average in his career and is nearly impossible to run against: he has allowed two stolen bases in the two seasons. Even more telling? Opponents have only tried to steal 13 times. His reputation precedes him. Tillman, who came to the Orioles organization in a trade with the Seattle Mariners for Erik Bedard, has profited from the Orioles’ organizational emphasis on holding base-runners and being quick to the plate. Among pitchers with 300 innings in the past two seasons, Tillman is second in fewest stolen bases allowed.
Jeff Blair’s Prediction
Orioles def. Royals in six games.