Donaldson’s power could spike at Rogers Centre

Josh-Donaldson,-Toronto-Blue-Jays

Josh Donaldson hits a three-run home run off of Detroit Tigers pitcher Joe Nathan during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Oakland, Calif. (Jeff Chiu/AP)

When Josh Donaldson first joined the Toronto Blue Jays he was quick to express excitement about his new team. The 29-year-old third baseman called the city “beautiful,” the lineup “potent” and even said he thought the uniforms were “pretty sexy.” What his glowing assessment may have been missing is what he’s likely to enjoy the most while playing for the Blue Jays: the ballpark.

While Rogers Centre has taken flak for its playing surface, there can be no doubt that it’s a great place for a power hitter to call home. It has developed a reputation as a launching pad, especially when the dome is closed, and that reputation is well founded.

Every season ESPN releases an MLB Park Factors list that attempts to quantify which parks most favour hitters and which are best for pitchers. A park factor score of 1.0 represents complete neutrality and any number above that indicates a better environment for hitters.

By these measures Rogers Centre consistently ranks as one of the top places to hit, especially over the last two seasons.

Rogers Centre

Total Runs MLB Rank Home Runs MLB Rank
1.08 2 1.30 T-3

A power hitter like Donaldson, whose 53 home runs since 2013 rank 18th in baseball, is sure to enjoy a boost from playing in such a hitter-friendly park. Rogers Centre may also bring back good memories for Donaldson, who hit his first home run over the left-field wall there against Dana Eveland.

To understand exactly how good the move to Toronto could be for the Blue Jays’ new third baseman, his previous home park in Oakland needs to be taken into account. The O.co Coliseum actually appears to be fairly similar to the Rogers Centre on the surface.

The picture below shows their dimensions matched up against each other with the red line representing the Rogers Centre and the black O.co.

Screen Shot 2014-12-18 at 12.05.52 PM
Source: ESPN Stats & Info

If anything, an argument could be made that Donaldson’s new home is a little bit bigger, especially in the gaps. However, O.co Coliseum’s high walls and heavy ocean air make the two parks play very differently. The stadium also has a very large foul territory famous for turning balls that would normally find the stands into outs.

Since Donaldson took over as a starter in 2013, O.co has been one of the worst places for a slugger to make a living according to ESPN Park Factors.

O.co Coliseum

Total Runs MLB Rank Home Runs MLB Rank
0.96 21 0.86 T-25 

Unsurprisingly, the park’s ability to suppress runs and home runs has affected Donaldson’s production. Over the past two seasons he has been a much more dangerous hitter on the road.

Josh Donaldson: Home vs. Road

Split HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
Home 24 90 .263 .345 .458 .802
Away 29 101 .291 .380 .496 .876

Source: FanGraphs

It’s hard to definitively say what transplanting Donaldson from one of the worst places in the league to hit home runs to one of the best will do for his production, but a smart bet would be on an uptick in long balls.

Donaldson may have already had his major career breakout going from a struggling minor leaguer to an MVP candidate in 2013, but his recent change of address could put him in line for another more modest step forward, especially in the power department. Yet another reason for him to like the trade.

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