PHILADELPHIA, Pa. — Marco Estrada did that thing again. That thing where he cruises through an effortless night of frustrated batters, awkward swings, and soft contact. That thing where he’s getting pop flies and weak grounders and then, seemingly on a whim, he strikes out three batters in a row with devastatingly fading change-ups. That thing where he’s quietly, efficiently, savagely dominant. That thing where nobody can hit him.
He’s been doing it all season, and while many will tell you his peripheral numbers are troubling and his batting average on balls in play is unsustainable and his stuff isn’t over-powering enough to have consistent success, Estrada just keeps going out and putting up results on results on results.
And there he was, on a warm Wednesday night in Philadelphia, pitching 6.2 innings, allowing just four hits and two runs while striking out five in a tidy 7-2 Toronto Blue Jays victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. It was Estrada’s 10th consecutive start of six innings or more, his 10th consecutive surrendering five hits or less (a Blue Jays record), and his 11th out of 13 this season when he’s allowed three runs or less. His dominance would be more apparent if it wasn’t so monotonously routine.
“If he would’ve had a full season as a starter under his belt last year, I feel like he would’ve been in the top three for the Cy Young Award,” said Josh Donaldson, who went 2-for-4 in the game with a home run. “He goes out there and grinds and competes and just really does a good job of keeping hitters off balance. And we get to see that every fifth day.”
On this particular fifth day, Estrada didn’t even have his best stuff. He didn’t have a feel for his curveball, and ended up throwing it only seven times in the game. He couldn’t locate his change-up the way he wanted to, and kept bouncing it in the dirt when he wanted to place it down in the zone. His cutter wasn’t coming out of his hand well at all, which led him to throw only three on the night, one of which he described as “a BP fastball” that was hit over the fence.
And yet, you look at the line at the end of the night, and you see a guy who was dominant. Years ago, when Estrada didn’t have his best stuff on a given night, it would cause him to change the way he pitches. But now, on the advice of former Blue Jays pitchers Mark Buehrle and David Price, who he credits with opening his eyes and changing his mindset on nights like this, he doesn’t change a thing.
“Days like today where you don’t have everything, it doesn’t get to me anymore,” Estrada said. “I just try not to think about it. I just see the glove and I try to hit it every time. And I know if I keep hitting it, I’m still going to be pretty successful. And that’s what happened.”
Of course, the Blue Jays hit, too. Edwin Encarnacion got it started in the second, when he took a centre-cut fastball from Phillies starter Jeremy Hellickson 418 feet into the left field bleachers. The ball came off Encarnacion’s bat at 109 mph, and left the yard so quickly that Phillies left-fielder Cody Asche simply stood in place and watched it fly.
Asche got the run back in the bottom of the frame, taking Estrada deep to right for a leadoff solo shot of his own on a cutter that Estrada left over the plate. But the Blue Jays opened it up soon after that, when Donaldson and Encarnacion both walked to lead off the fourth, before pulling off a rare double steal and eventually coming in to score.
Ryan Goins got his second hit of the game later in that inning and scored the Blue Jays’ fourth run on a Devon Travis double behind him. Then Donaldson led off the eighth with a rocket to left field, his 16th home run, before two more scored as the Blue Jays pulled away.
But, again, Estrada was brilliant, as he has been all season. He came into the game first in the American League in hits-per-nine-innings with 5.4. As a frame of reference, Clayton Kershaw, the best pitcher on the planet, is the only guy with a better H/9 than Estrada. His is 5.3.
And let’s stick with Kershaw for a moment. That’s about as high a wall as you can measure a guy against. But dive a little deeper and you’ll find that where Estrada’s even better than Kershaw is batting average against. Estrada led all of baseball in that category with a .168 mark coming into Wednesday night. Kershaw was a close second at .169. No one else in the majors has a mark below .178.
Look, we’re being selective with the stats here. Kershaw strikes out way more batters, walks way less, and doesn’t allow as many home runs. He’s better; way, way better. But, it’s not insane to compare Estrada to Kershaw in terms of not allowing hits. And, really, is that not the essence of what a pitcher is trying to do?
“His ball put in play average is ridiculous,” Donaldson says, referring to the .188 batting average on balls in play Estrada holds this season, following his MLB-low .216 mark in 2015. “And that just goes to show you how effective he is at keeping guys off balance and keeping guys off one pitch or another.
“He just does a great job of pitching. He’s not going to be a guy who blows you away with 95 or 96. He’s going to be a guy who pitches effectively and changes speeds in the zone and pitches to all quadrants of the zone as well. He’s definitely a guy who I want out there in a big game for us.”
Another key difference between Estrada and Kershaw: their paycheques. Kershaw’s earning $34.5 million this season. It’s a lot of money and he deserves every penny. No pitcher in the game is better. He’s a generational talent. He’s impossible to over-value.
Marco Estrada, on the other hand, is earning $11.5 million this year in the first half of the two-year, $26-million pact he signed with the Blue Jays last winter. That price tag is really something else in light of the fact that coming in to Wednesday night’s game he’d accumulated 1.5 wins above replacement on the season. And his outing against the Phillies will only add to that.
Considering the going rate for a win on the open market is $8 million, Estrada is already providing surplus value to the Blue Jays. Anything positive he does over the final three-and-a-half months of the season is a pure bonus. That alone makes Estrada one of the true bargains of the off-season, and perhaps the most savvy move any team made this winter.
And each and every time he does that thing—that thing where he’s quietly, efficiently, savagely dominant—it becomes ever more clear that Estrada’s the best pitcher the Blue Jays have.