Over the course of his most trying stretch with the Toronto Blue Jays, Marco Estrada has done a lot of thinking about his present, about how to fix things, about his future. He’s trying to think less, a lot less, right now, particularly about an uncertain future, because, as he puts it, when "you start doing that you’re only going to make things worse."
"Maybe earlier on it was crossing my mind and I didn’t like it because I love Toronto so much that I’d like to stay here," he says during an interview in Fenway Park’s visitors’ dugout. "You do think about those things once in a while but now I’m at a point where you can’t let those things affect you, you go out there and do your job and do the best you can for your team and whatever happens, happens. You can’t control that stuff, so why stress about it?
“Right now I’m not thinking about it, I don’t really care, I’m happy here, hopefully I stay here, and if it doesn’t work out that way, it’s fine. If I do become a free agent, there’s no reason why I couldn’t come back. That’s the way I’m seeing it nowadays, and I’ve stopped thinking about trades and all that other stuff."
Tuning out all the noise between now and the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline won’t be easy, especially because each of his starts between now and then, beginning with an outing Friday night at Cleveland, will be closely scrutinized.
In a market thin on starting pitchers and with prices very high for controllable arms such as Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole and Julio Teheran, the Blue Jays are getting calls on Estrada and Francisco Liriano from teams evaluating secondary/rental options. A 2.16 ERA in 41.2 innings during the last two post-seasons is a significant part of Estrada’s appeal for a contender, especially if a team believes a dreadful eight-start stretch since June 1 is simply an aberration for the 2016 all-star.
The 34-year-old is in the second year of a $26-million, two-year deal he signed after his breakout 2015 campaign with the Blue Jays. His current walk-year experience is much different from that one because of how much his connection has evolved since.
"I feel like I’ve been here for more than 2½ years, honestly. I feel like I’ve almost become Canadian, I guess. I feel like I belong in Toronto," says Estrada. "The fans treat me really well, the (coaching) staff we have here is incredible, one of the best staffs I’ve ever worked with, the players are awesome, everybody is easy to get along with, it’s a fun place to be.
"This year has been rough for not only me but us as a team. We’re not winning as much as we know we can – it makes it hard on everybody, especially when you know you have such a great team. But it is baseball and that’s the way it goes sometimes. There is a very special place in my heart for Toronto, I’m happy here and I want to turn things around for the city of Toronto, for my teammates, for my family, for everybody. It’s coming. I’m taking baby steps in the right direction and I feel better about it."
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Estrada felt he made some progress during his last outing in Detroit, when he allowed four runs in 3.2 innings on five hits and four walks.
Clearly there is ample room for improvement, but incremental steps are sometimes the way to escape a rut. He’s allowed 38 earned runs over his past 36 innings on 52 hits and 26 walks with 37 strikeouts, an opponents’ slash line of .344/.431/.616 and an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .400.
Consider that over his first 11 starts he allowed only 24 earned runs over 68.2 innings on 59 hits and 17 walks with 78 strikeouts, an opponents’ slash line of.226/.276/.406 and a BABIP of .287, which was still above his career average of .266.
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“I feel like I’ve been here for more than 2½ years, honestly. I feel like I’ve almost become Canadian, I guess. I feel like I belong in Toronto.”
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While his walks have spiked during his current struggles, there isn’t much else obvious in the numbers to point to.
The average velocity on his fastball is 90.1, up from last year’s 88.1 and 89.3 two years ago, and all his other pitches are in line with his career norms. His fastball and change-up usage is up a tick, each up two per cent, taken about equally from his usage of the cutter and curveball.
"Obviously it’s been a rough stretch, but I am looking at my stuff and it’s been really good. I’m just not locating as well," says Estrada. "Once I figure those things out it’s obviously going to turn around for me; everything seems to be there, it’s just the little things aren’t going right. Walking people isn’t helping. Once all that stuff goes away, I’ll be back to the guy I’ve been for the last two years."
Estrada endured similar difficulties last year over a six-start stretch from August into September, allowing 24 earned runs in 28.2 innings, but recovered in time to throw three gems to close out the regular season and three more gems in the playoffs.
"It never really affected me, it never went over my mechanics, I trusted everything, the next thing you know I turned it around," says Estrada. "This year I’ve pressed a little more and maybe I have thought about things. … I’m working on letting everything go and just having fun out there."
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