BY PAUL HOPE – FAN FUEL BLOGGER
With free agency officially underway, here’s a look at who I believe are the top 10 free agents available this year, and who will be lining up at the door with their chequebooks ready.
1. Albert Pujols – Age 31, 2011 stats: .299 AVG, 37 HR, 99 RBI
No brainer here. The now two-time World Series champion, and three-time MVP, could get the largest contract in MLB history if he seriously looks elsewhere. I think he’ll take a “discount” and stay in St. Louis though.
Whether he sticks with the Cardinals or not, he is likely to get an offer in excess of $200 million over nine years. Rumour has it that Pujols turned down a nine-year deal in the $195 million range back in spring training.
I could see the Cubs or Rangers making a run at him, and perhaps teams like the Nationals or Mariners could be involved, though they won’t be real factors. The Yankees or Red Sox are likely out as well given their current first basemen Mark Texeira and Adrian Gonzalez, but who knows with those two.
2. Prince Fielder – Age 27, 2011 stats: .299 AVG, 32 HR, 125 RBI
Most years he would be number one, which you could probably say about the guy listed below in third spot as well.
A Scott Boras client and in his prime equals a HUGE contract. Probably not as big as the one Pujols will get, but not out of the question. If Pujols takes a big discount like Cliff Lee did last year, or someone gets really desperate, Fielder could be the beneficiary.
The Nationals have fit that bill in recent years, reportedly tabling a very competitive offer to Mark Teixeira three years ago, and massively overpaying Jayson Werth last off-season. Perhaps they will continue to swing for the fences and get involved in the Fielder sweepstakes.
The Cubs and Mariners I think will go after him hard and I believe are the two front-runners if Milwaukee isn’t able to keep him. Whoever gets the new GM job in Baltimore could try to come in with a bang as well. Unlike with Pujols, I wouldn’t be surprised if both the Yankees and Red Sox try to make a play here. Fielder is not good at all defensively and will be better suited going forward as a DH which both teams may be looking for.
3. Jose Reyes – Age 28, 2011 stats: .337 AVG, 7 HR, 44 RBI, 101 R
What better time to have a career year than in a contract year? The 2011 National League batting champion had the best year of his career offensively and re-established himself as a top player after two consecutive years filled with and injuries and performance well below expectations.
He did, however, only manage 126 games this year and has missed nearly 200 games over the past three seasons which may scare away some teams. Nevertheless I expect a boat load of teams will be in the running for Reyes. I suspect a very wide open race, especially from teams in the National League. The Braves, Giants and Reds all have needs at SS, and the Cardinals, Brewerers and Phillies could be in the running too, depending on what happens with Pujols, Fielder, and Jimmy Rollins.
4. CJ Wilson – Age 30, 2011 stats: 16-7, 2.94 ERA, 206 K
The top pitcher in this year’s free agent class (apologies to the Yu Darvish fans out there, but he’s technically not a free agent) will have lots of interest in the off-season.
The former closer has gone consecutive years with 200+ innings pitched, and is still young enough that he could command a contract of at least five years.
He’s said he’d like to return to the Rangers, and I expect they will try to make that happen. The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Nationals all have a need for a front end rotation guy. While Wilson likely won’t be signed to be anybody’s ace, he might end up getting paid like one.
5. Aramis Ramirez – Age 33, 2011 stats: .306 AVG, 26 HR, 93 RBI
The power-hitting third baseman just completed a five-year $73 million contract, and while he won’t get that much again, he should be in for another sizeable payday.
With a career slashline of .284/.342/.500 and a 162 game average of 30 HR and 108 RBIs he’s far and away the best available at the hot corner this winter. It appears his days as a Cub are done, after recent comments by himself and new GM Theo Epstein.
It’s such a weak class at the position this year so Ramirez should have a lot of options. I see Tigers, Rockies, Orioles, Angels, and Reds all interested.
6. Edwin Jackson – Age 28, 2011 stats: 12-9, 3.79 ERA, 148 K
This innings-eater is coming off a World Series win with the Cardinals, and the off-season is about to get better for this Scott Boras client.
Over the past three seasons his ERA is 3.96 and he has averaged 207.2 innings pitched. He’s the youngest of the recognizable free agent starters available, and in fact it would shock me if he signs for anything longer than four years because of his age. He’d potentially be missing an even bigger contract if he does.
Potential suitors include the Marlins, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Royals, Nationals, Orioles, and Blue Jays.
7. Carlos Beltran – Age 34, 2011 stats: .300 AVG, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 78 R
This slugger does have a long injury history and isn’t the Gold Glove winning centre fielder he once was, but in 2011 his bat showed no signs of slowing down.
Beltran set a career high in OPS+ this past season (152) and is still adequate defensively in right field. Somebody will be willing to take a chance on him, and if the Giants don’t keep him, I think he may end up with the Red Sox, replacing JD Drew.
8. Jonathan Papelbon – Age 30, 2011 stats: 4-1, 2.94 ERA, 31 SV
Boston’s long time closer is an interesting case. The Red Sox have Daniel Bard who may be able to handle the role, but a late season nose dive in performance raised questions and may help keep Papelbon in Boston.
I am dead set against long term contracts to closers, the turnover at the position is unreal. Having said that, Papelbon may be able to get a four-year deal. I really don’t think anybody else is going to be willing to spend the big bucks it will take to get Papelbon away from Boston.
If Boston does end up walking away from him though, look for the Blue Jays, Cubs, Indians, Cardinals, and possibly Phillies to be in the mix.
9. Mark Buehrle – Age 32, 2011 stats: 13-9, 3.59 ERA, 109 K
The long time member of the White Sox has said he would like to play another two-three years. With rumours swirling that Chicago will have to cut payroll, and Buehrle expressing interest in the National League, his days with the White Sox appear to be numbered.
Reuniting with his former manager Ozzie Guillen in Florida is one possibility, and it’s also been reported he would like to stay in and around the Midwest, and close to home.
His home town Cardinals may not have room for him, but he could stay right in Chicago and join the Cubs. The Nationals are rumoured to be interested as well.
10. David Ortiz – Age 35, 2011 stats: .309 AVG, 29 HR, 96 RBI, 84 R
The full-time DH has bounced back from a poor 2009 with two good seasons in a row. He’s reportedly seeking a three-year deal, but he turns 36 next month and unless JP Ricciardi gets the GM position in Baltimore, I don’t see anybody except Boston willing to go three years.
Big Papi made comments recently about being tired of all the drama in Boston but has since backed off those comments. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Angels are all rumoured destinations if he does move on.