Hitting on a late-round pick is one of the sweetest things in fantasy and one of the hardest to pull off. Most sleepers have been talked about to death by this point, so if you’re looking to draft Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant, you’re going to have to pay a ton with their value skyrocketing this spring.
For true sleeper value, we’re looking at players with an average draft position lower than 250. I’ve compiled a list of deep sleepers that could play a role in helping you become a fantasy champion.
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Drew Hutchison, SP (ADP: 251)
Hutch qualifies, barely. I’m all in on his strikeout potential and I’m going out on a limb to suggest that Hutchison reaches 200 strikeouts this season, something only 13 starters did last year. An improved slider could help in hitting that mark. Getting that ERA under 4.00 would be an added bonus, but for that to happen, Hutchison needs to avoid getting hit around in bad starts (8.38 ERA in 13 losses last season) and he also needs to improve against lefties, who hit 17 of the 23 homers he surrendered in 2014. With Marcus Stroman, Yu Darvish, Zack Wheeler and potentially Cliff Lee done for the season, Hutchison offers tremendous value in a deep starting pitcher pool.
Kevin Gausman, SP (ADP: 257)
Gausman is entering his first full season in Baltimore’s rotation and although his 2014 won’t wow anyone, there are suggestions that a breakout could be coming. From May to October, his strikeout rate rose from 4.50 K/9 to 8.33 K/9 while his walk rate dropped from 4.50 BB/9 to 2.59 BB/9. Gausman also did a nice job keeping the ball from leaving the park (0.56 HR/9). The fastball is legit and while his secondary pitches (split, slider) need some work, at age 24 he’s still coming into his own. Projections have Gausman at around 160 innings but I could see him finishing closer to the 180 mark and if that’s the case, a 13-win, 170-strikeout season wouldn’t shock me.
Marcus Semien, 2B/3B (ADP: 271)
Love the position flexibility here, considering Semien will start the year as Oakland’s everyday shortstop. He was a sleeper entering the 2014 campaign, but a mid-season demotion has cooled his value. Semien’s excellent walk rate in the minors has yet to translate to the majors but just remember that he’s only had 326 career plate appearances. If Semien can build on last year’s results, I could see a .250 average with double-digit steals and home runs. He makes for a nice depth play.
Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/CF (ADP: 314)
Bryant, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell get all the ‘young Cubs’ attention but let’s not forget about Alcantara. Even with Dexter Fowler now in centre and Kris Bryant not too far away to occupy third base or left field (left would suit him much better defensively), Alcantara is a versatile defender, a switch-hitter and also supplies a nice power-speed combo. Plus, moving Bryant to left field would free up third base, a position Alcantara has played in the minors. The 31 percent strikeout rate is worrisome, but Alcantara also hit 10 homers and stole eight bases in just 70 games last season, his first taste of major league action. Considering how late he’s going in drafts, Alcantara is a worthy gamble. He could be demoted in April if the on-base skills don’t improve or he could finish the season with double-digit homers, 20 stolen bases and a .240 average. I’m targeting him with my final pick.
Nick Castellanos, 3B (ADP: 320)
I sense a sneaky 18-20 homer season. Castellanos is coming off his first full year in Detroit and the hope is that he can transfer some of his 29 percent line drive rate into his non-impressive 7.5 percent home run per fly ball rate (league average is 9.5 percent). Despite a .326 batting average on balls in play, his .259 average was weighed down by a 24.2 percent strikeout rate though you could chalk that up to getting his feet wet in the majors. If Castellanos can move his way up in that Tigers order (he’s projected to hit eighth) and get the strikeouts down, we could be looking at top-10 third baseman.
