SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – The possibilities, those both in and out of reach, are much clearer for the Toronto Blue Jays after the annual general managers meeting wrapped up Thursday and the 30 GMs went their separate ways.
Between the ongoing drama over the futures of franchise icons Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista to the opportunities for transformation available through free agency and trade, there are separate and diverse paths for Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office to settle upon.
Over the coming days and weeks leading into the Dec. 5-8 winter meetings in Washington, the Blue Jays will need to choose one route, understanding that in the process they’re closing themselves off to the other.
"There’s always ebb and flow and things that move in one direction and some that don’t," Atkins said of the work accomplished as he left the Omni Scottsdale Resort and Spa. "We’ve had some encouraging things with just a little bit of movement towards potential deals, and we’ve also had things that fell apart. Nothing surprising though."
A push to re-sign Encarnacion just before free agency opened Tuesday is likely among the latter, as Paul Kinzer, the slugger’s agent, joined Jeff Blair on Sportsnet 590 The Fan on Thursday morning and confirmed that the Blue Jays "did make us an offer," and that "it wasn’t quite where we wanted to be."
Kinzer added that Encarnacion "made it pretty clear how much he loves Toronto," and that returning to the Blue Jays "is his first choice," but according to industry sources the sides are speaking to others more deliberately than they are with each other.
One industry source believes strongly the all-star first baseman/DH will end up with the Houston Astros, who have a talented young core and money to spend to augment it, while another still expects him to re-sign with the Blue Jays in the end.
Kinzer said a decision was possible soon and while he’s speaking with other teams, "there’s a short list of where he would go to."
On a parallel track the Blue Jays – who also had Ben Cherington and Tony LaCava out in the desert – sussed out alternatives as they weigh how to recoup the potential loss of offence they face should Encarnacion, Bautista and Michael Saunders all move on.
Given how the Blue Jays’ September struggles at the plate nearly cost them a spot in the post-season and the way the offence disappeared again in the American League Championship Series against Cleveland, there’s an important conversation to be had about whether they need a more diverse lineup.
Certainly their right-handed tilt left them vulnerable to right-handed pitchers with reasonable velocities and a good slider, and some rival players felt their dependence on power was something that could be exploited.
With three offensive pieces who accounted for 40 per cent of the team’s 221 home runs on the market, an opportunity to transition the offence is there.
"At what cost?" countered Atkins. "Any GM will tell you, any team will tell you that the more balance you can have – meaning left-handed/right-handed, the platoon factor – having more switch-hitters, having more speed, having more athleticism, having more youth is beneficial. It’s just at what cost and what does it mean in acquisition cost, the opportunity cost and what your alternatives are."
One ideal option is free agent Dexter Fowler, a top-of-the-order switch-hitter who brings speed, on-base capability and a sound hitting approach to the table. Even though he’d need to move from centre to one of the outfield corners because defensive stalwart Kevin Pillar isn’t going anywhere, it’s believed there may be a potential fit there.
He’s coveted and won’t be cheap, and the Cubs did extend Fowler a qualifying offer, but the Blue Jays won’t be deterred by draft-pick compensation for the right player. Right now they hold the 24th overall pick in 2017 and while that should move up once qualified free agents sign, they won’t drop too many spots if they end up with compensatory draft choices for Encarnacion and/or Bautista.
Alternatively, someone like Jon Jay brings similar elements to the table and the Blue Jays are believed to have some level of interest in him, but exactly how much at this point is unclear.
More things will come into focus Monday evening, once the 5 p.m. ET deadline for free agents to decide on qualifying offers passes. Though there’s some speculation about whether Bautista might take the $17.2 million over one year, don’t hold your breath on that one, as it’s believed he’ll get a better multiyear deal on the open market.
The Blue Jays, however, may want certainty on that front before aggressively engaging with others.
One thing that appears to be firmly off the table is the possibility of flipping a starting pitcher for a position player. The Blue Jays have the luxury of controlling five quality starters for 2017 – even after R.A. Dickey put off retirement for a one-year deal plus an option from Atlanta – and there’s little sense in subtracting from that area in a pitching-starved market.
"There are scenarios we think about and talk about like that, you have to, that’s part of the job. You talk about how could we potentially take away from this team and make it better?" said Atkins. "Having said that, we can’t find those concepts that we feel are realistic. Our starting rotation, all of them, would be extremely difficult to part ways with."
Just as difficult will be settling on which path to take in filling the offensive holes they have, as a fork in the road comes closer and closer.