Baseball genius joins Los Angeles Dodgers? We’ve seen this before, when Paul DePodesta was sent forth by Billy Beane to spread the religion of ‘Moneyball’ as general manager of the Dodgers.
Sober second thought, however, is that there is much, much, more to Andrew Friedman leaving the Tampa Bay Rays to join the Dodgers as president of baseball operations on Tuesday. This move is more likely to succeed. And if the next move is the spiriting of Rays manager Joe Maddon to the Dodgers – Maddon has a year left on his contract and said yesterday that he remains a Ray, but ask John Farrell what that’s worth – it’s a move that will resonate throughout the American League East.
DePodesta was considered the brightest of Beane’s ‘Moneyball’ offspring, a much-in-demand genius who was hired to make presentations to folks like Credit Suisse before joining the Dodgers in 2004. His genius worked when the Dodgers went 93-69 in his first year as GM and lost out in the National League Division Series; not so much in 2005, when DePodesta was fired after a 71-91 finish.
Yet Friedman surprised several of his peers with Tuesday’s announcement, as most of them thought he’d become the east coast version of Beane, content in his own quirky fiefdom. Instead he is making a move more in keeping with that of Theo Epstein, who left the Boston Red Sox to become president of baseball operations for the Chicago Cubs. Epstein hired Jed Hoyer to be the Cubs GM, and Friedman will also get to hire his own GM.
A skeptic would argue that there is another similarity: Epstein, who will go down in New England folklore as the local kid who helped end the Curse of the Bambino in 2004 with a team whose core was put together by Dan Duquette, also made a series of spectacular mistakes down the stretch, and successor Ben Cherington had to clean up much of it in one trade when he sent Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to the Dodgers. Other Epstein flops included a four-year, $36-million deal for popgun shortstop Julio Lugo, a three-year, $25-million deal for Matt Clement and J.D. Drew’s five-year, $70-million contract. It was on his watch that the infamous “beer and chicken wings” story surfaced after an epic collapse in 2011, and it was Epstein who played a role in the unpardonable trashing of Terry Francona’s reputation that led to Bobby Valentine’s hiring. There was a real sense, in other words, that the boy genius was getting the hell out of Dodge.
Friedman hasn’t made as much of a hash of the Rays, although the team’s 77-85 record this season was their worst since 2007. Still, for the first time in his tenure the Rays saw cracks in their much-vaunted pitching maintenance program. Matt Moore became the first Rays pitcher since Jason Isringhausen in 2009 to undergo Tommy John surgery, while Alex Cobb lost time with a strained oblique and Jeremy Hellickson needed arthroscopic surgery in the spring. That’s not exactly a plague, but coupled with the trade of David Price to the Detroit Tigers and a sense that some of the Maddon magic was wearing off, it does at least whisper a change in fortune.
Plus, human nature would suggest that after all these years of putting out a team seemingly more loved and respected away from home than at an empty Tropicana Field, the Rays brain trust might be ready to move on, especially if as many believe Rob Manfred, the new commissioner, will quietly give approval to Rays owner Stuart Sternberg to move the team if one last push for a new baseball-only facility in Tampa fails.
Matt Silverman, the Rays president, will immediately move into Friedman’s spot and be in charge of baseball related operations. It is generally regarded that he was a behind-the-scenes operative for Friedman and is well-versed in the Rays way, especially when it comes to developing and caring for pitchers. If pitching coach Jim Hickey is retained – and don’t be surprised if Friedman is given a list of front office and in-uniform personnel that he can’t touch – then there is a chance that the chain of success continues.
What does this mean for the Dodgers? It’s an intriguing match, because the Rays had the 24th-highest payroll in the game this year at $81,532,891 and the Dodgers had the highest: $238.8 million. In fact, the Rays payroll for the past four years combined was just a shade north of $240 million.
Even if Friedman is told to take payroll down to $200 million in his first year in charge, that’s still a lot of efficiency to play around with, no?
There was a tendency early in the Rays success to lob Friedman into the ‘Moneyball’ camp, which was an absolute misread of what the organization was about. First, Maddon and Friedman are like-minded; Friedman would never think of embarrassing his manager as Beane sometimes did with Art Howe. Not only that, but as Jonah Keri detailed in the book “The Extra 2%,” the Rays focus was on a variety of market inefficiencies built upon a foundation of high-ceiling, young, starting pitching that depended on what Keri describes as “the intellectual curiosity” of the field manager. Plus, unlike the Athletics, the Rays were scouting-oriented and thrived on athleticism and speed to take advantage of their artificial home turf; they stole bases and Maddon was something of a Mad Professor when it came to in-game moves.
“There is that human element that you have to be able to read and feel during the course of a day and adjust to,” Maddon said in an interview during the 2011 season. “It can’t all be theory, you know?”
And so here we are: The World Series hasn’t even taken shape yet and already it’s been a stunning off-season. Take Friedman’s brains, add in the Dodgers’ financial might and take into account the fact that this is already a playoff team. It’s a great fit, with one more move to make it a perfect fit and maybe – just maybe – it helps keep the door open for the Toronto Blue Jays for one more season.