Happ joins company of Blue Jays legends with 20-win season

J.A. Happ (Eric Risberg/AP)

SEATTLE – On the first day of free agency last fall, 12 teams reached out to J.A. Happ’s representatives to express an interest in the left-hander’s services. Tony LaCava, the Toronto Blue Jays assistant general manager who was interim GM at the time, was among them and he wanted to move fast. Often times free agents are reluctant to sign early and establish a market, preferring instead for others to set the bar and negotiate off that. But LaCava was aggressive and on Nov. 27, he locked up Happ to a $36-million, three-year deal that raised eyebrows at the time, but looks brilliant now.

"We wanted to get to the point where we felt comfortable and felt excited and I was able to do that here with the team they had last year and the team that we were hoping to have and do have this year," says Happ. "Some familiar faces are great, too, it definitely came close and if I would have waited longer it would have gotten real close with several other teams. But I’m happy to not look back, and I haven’t since I signed."

On Tuesday night, Happ became the sixth different pitcher to win 20 games in a season for the Blue Jays, joining Roy Halladay, Pat Hentgen, Jack Morris, Roger Clemens and David Wells. Though the 33-year-old left-hander closed out the 2015 season with a flourish, going 7-2 with an 1.85 ERA in 11 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates after his trade deadline acquisition from the Seattle Mariners, few envisioned him entrenching himself among the game’s elite starters the way he has this season.

Roy Halladay set a Blue Jays club record for wins in a season with 22 in 2003. (Fred Thornhill/CP)
Roy Halladay set a Blue Jays club record for wins in a season with 22 in 2003. (Fred Thornhill/CP)

As Blue Jays manager John Gibbons puts it: "Nobody in their wildest dreams thought Happ was going to win 20 games, I don’t think. He might have, but not many guys would have predicted that, because not many guys win 20 games anymore, really."

Yet Happ is 20-4 with a 3.28 ERA in a career-best 181.1 innings over 30 starts, with two more outings to go in the regular season. If he wins both, he’ll match Halladay’s club record for wins in a season at 22, set during the ace right-hander’s Cy Young campaign of 2003. If the Blue Jays advance to the post-season, he’ll be a prime reason why.

"It’s a pretty number and I like it," Happ says of No. 20. "But every time out I’m trying to get that next one because that means we’re moving on and we’re doing good things. Those wins are team wins, and I’m happy to be part of it."

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Back in the day, when WHIP was something used on horses and FIP was a typo, a pitcher’s win-loss record was a prime measure of his worth. Over the past decade and a half, the thinking on that front has evolved substantially, as advanced metrics sought to isolate the elements within a pitcher’s control and used those numbers to evaluate performance. These days, many front offices don’t even give earned-run average a cursory glance when trying to gauge the quality of an arm. Anyone trying to base an evaluation based on a pitcher’s win total is likely to get laughed out of the room.

Yet wins, faulty a measure as they are, remain a stat that still carries meaning to pitchers, their teammates, coaches, even some executives. "Some guys find a way to win, and some guys find a way to lose, too," says Gibbons. "I’ve seen that over my career."

But even Gibbons readily admits it’s a flawed statistic. Think of last season, when Drew Hutchison tied Marco Estrada for second on the Blue Jays with 13 wins, despite an ERA of 5.57, more than two runs higher than Estrada’s 3.13. When it came time for the post-season, Estrada toed the rubber in key games, dominating on the mound, while Hutchison was at the team’s complex in Dunedin, Fla., staying loose in case he was needed.

So what can a front office make of wins?

"There are two ways to look at that," says Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins. "Purely what metrics will tell you, what it indicates about a pitcher and their future; and then the other side of it is what it means to a team and morale. When a team goes on to the field and they have the feeling that this is a winning pitcher, there’s a lot to be said for that. I think that’s the subjective side of why we do these things, why we enjoy the game of baseball so much, that there’s so much to chemistry, morale, confidence and what one person can contribute to that is real.

"But you can’t ignore that over time, guys are unlucky and guys are unfortunate so there are a lot of really good pitchers out there this year that won’t win 20 games."

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During his pitching days, Paul Quantrill was one of the game’s most reliable relievers, delivering quality inning after quality inning, taking the ball whenever his manager asked. Out of the bullpen, he believes, a measure of worth is in games pitched, because the more appearances one gets, the more he is trusted. When it comes to his view of starting pitchers, "a win is all that matters."

"If we look at it analytically," the native of Port Hope, Ont., says, "of course wins come for a lot of other reasons. But ultimately there were guys I played with that just knew how to win and they always won more games than everybody because they stayed in games longer, because they competed better.

“Was their spin rate as good? No. Did they have a great curveball? Maybe not. But in the end, winners win. We all care about velocity and spin rate and every other thing now, but I just care if you can get somebody out. The out is the only thing we need to do and I don’t care how we get it. And a win is all that matters from the outs, so for me, the win is all and everything. Twenty wins nowadays? Holy cow, it’s incredible."

During his pitching days, Paul Quantrill was one of the game’s most reliable relievers. (Elaine Thompson/AP)
During his pitching days, Paul Quantrill was one of the game’s most reliable relievers. (Elaine Thompson/AP)

At the same time Quantrill, now a special assistant for the Blue Jays, notes that understanding how a pitcher gets his wins matters, too. "I’m not going to say just because a guy got 25 wins he should get the Cy Young," he points out. "I’m looking for the best pitcher."

At the same time, pitchers "just can’t get wins unless you’re pretty damned good. You have to stay in games, you have to compete. It doesn’t mean you’re always going to be lights out. For me, the win is the result of filling innings and competing in the grind innings. Everyone is good when they have their A game. I remember Roger Clemens used to say, ‘If I had my A game for all 30 starts and I didn’t win the Cy Young I’d be embarrassed.’ And I agree. You’re going to have your B and your C game at least two-thirds of the time. You can’t get 20 wins without the grind and just giving your team a chance."

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Up until Happ reached the plateau, the Blue Jays hadn’t seen a 20-game winner since Halladay in 2008. In 24 of his 30 starts so far, he’s limited opponents to three earned runs or less. At one point he ran off a streak of 11 straight wins.

What do the 20 wins mean to his teammates?

"One, you have to keep your team in the game almost every time you go out there, you have to be consistent, you have to have a quality start, man, and that’s what he’s done so many times this year," says catcher Russell Martin. "He’s just been consistent, he’s been throwing strikes, attacking the zone all year long, and consistency, that’s the one thing you search for in this game. To get 20 wins you have to do that."

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher J.A. Happ, right, gets a fist-bump from catcher Russell Martin, left. (Ted S. Warren/AP)

Jose Bautista agrees with that, and while he doesn’t think wins are a proper evaluative tool, Happ getting to 20, "means a lot."

"It means he’s given us a bunch of chances to win ballgames, and we’ve come through for him as well," says Bautista. "J.A. Happ has pitched himself, not only this season, but also with what he did with Pittsburgh last season, into being one of the best lefties in the game right now. My hat is off to him. I’m extremely happy for his success."

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Happ is the second 20-game winner in the big-leagues, following Rick Porcello of the Boston Red Sox, who’s at 21 and counting. Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians, Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals and Jon Lester of the Chicago Cubs are next at 18 apiece.

To Happ, the win total is a byproduct of doing the right things.

"More than anything you’re keeping your team in the game," he says. "(Tuesday) night I only ended up going five innings but more often than not you’re going deep enough in the game where you’re giving your team a real good chance. I feel good about that, going out there and doing my job. And trying to keep the lead when we get it, that’s another big thing, too, trying to get a zero after we score some runs."

Happ did precisely that in his 20th win, following up his offence’s eight-run outburst in the top of the fourth by striking out the side in the bottom half. The Blue Jays beat the Mariners 10-2.

One oddity about the Blue Jays’ previous five 20-game winners is that only Morris – in 1992 – went to the post-season, something Happ is intent on changing. At this point, it’s the only piece missing from a spectacular season in his remarkable second run with the Blue Jays.

"As this year has gone on, just getting that much more comfortable with everybody here and enjoying this team and Toronto, more and more my wife and I sit and talk about how glad we are that we made this decision," says Happ. "You never know (how things will turn out) and looking at it now, we’re just happy to be here, and certainly happy to hopefully keep this going, battle and get ourselves in spots to get into the playoffs."

Adds Gibbons: "Anytime some guy gets to 20 wins, that’s some kind of year. Everything has to go right. You’ve got to be really good. You don’t luck into that, that’s for sure."

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