Ruben Amaro, the general of the Philadelphia Phillies, says he’s not going to sell.
I call BS on that.
If he’s not willing to part with some of his players now, he’ll be losing well into the future. To acquire the many stars he currently has on his big league roster, Amaro had to deal away several of his organization’s prospects – some of which are now in the Blue Jays’ organization.
Much like the Jays this season, the Phillies dealt those prospects because the team had a window in which they could foresee winning. That window is rapidly closing.
Contracts are running out and division rivals are coming into their own. To inject some youth back into the organization and avoid becoming the next Yankees – pricey aging players at the top and scant prospects in the minors – the Phillies need to deal while they still can.
If – and it’s a big if – the Blue Jays are within striking distance by the end of the trade deadline, the Phillies might make a good trading partner.
Consider the following potential swaps.
The current temperature on Brett Lawrie is that he’s a liability. The fan base thinks he’s immature and will never live up to his potential because his head isn’t screwed on straight. I disagree. I think he’ll be just fine and, frenetic or not, he’s one of the best defensive third basemen in the game.
But will he figure it out while the Jays still have Dickey, Buehrle, Reyes, Bautista and Encarnacion?
Phillies third baseman Michael Young has it figured out: an aging Gold Glove winner whose bat and glove still plays. Young is everything in the clubhouse that Lawrie is not. Young is a pro’s pro, regarded as one of the best personalities in the game. He’s doesn’t have the long term upside that Lawrie has and, yes, Young’s first few years in the league look very similar to Lawrie’s stat wise, but if you’re looking to win now, he’d be an easy acquisition that could hit the ground running.
Second base has been another enigma for Toronto. Aaron Hill used to be the guy until he stopped being the guy, then went to Arizona and became the guy again. I’m sure the Blue Jays are still kicking themselves over that one.
Emilio Bonifacio, the current second baseman, has not lived up to expectations, hitting a paltry .206/.237/.309. Sure, he’s fast, he can switch hit and could steal a lot of bases. But stealing bases requires you to actually be on base, something with which Bonifacio is struggling mightily.
Thankfully, the Phillies have a replacement: Chase Utley.
He’s back to full health and hitting well at .281/.349/.495. And he’s got pop, something the Jays will not get from Bonifacio. Nor will they get it from Bonifacio’s soon-to-be-replacement, Munenori Kawasaki, who hit his first major league home run just 10 days ago.
Utley is also at the end of his contract with Philadelphia. He’d become a free agent at the end of the year and they’d have to pay him or let him walk. Amaro might as well trade him now and get some youth while he still can.
Finally, if we’re going to get Young and Utley, might as well make a run at Carlos Ruiz.
Honestly, I can’t see the Jays winning big games with such a defensive liability behind the plate like Arencibia. It’s not that I don’t appreciate his slugging ability, it’s that his slugging ability is all he has to offer.
You have to throw the ball over the backstop to walk him. For a player who claims his ridiculous strikeout rate is because he’s a run producer, he’s only hitting .143 with runners in scoring position.
Arencibia is arbitration eligible at the end of this season which means Toronto will have to start paying him, mostly for his power numbers that impress only because it’s rare for a catcher to have them.
In my opinion, keep the extra home runs and give me the guy that can make the most out of the rotation that, should it ever get healthy and live up to expectations, will dominate.
Again, this is all conjecture with a healthy dose of devil’s advocacy mixed in, but the Blue Jays do have needs.
If they make a push in July, the Phillies might be a good place to find some reinforcements.