Hutchison held back by struggles with men on base

Amidst the Toronto Blue Jays’ recent inactivity it’s easy to forget the team will look very different next season than it did in 2014.

For instance, the projected Opening Day lineup includes only three players-Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Reyes- who were regulars last year.

Similarly, the bullpen is in a state of flux. The relief core includes largely familiar arms for now, but it is likely that the team will explore some low-cost reclamation projects in the weeks to come.

The only aspect of the team that remains fairly stable is the starting rotation. Although J.A. Happ is no longer with the club, the Blue Jays will be bringing back four-fifths of a starting group that ranked seventh in the majors in Wins Above Replacement last season according to FanGraphs.

However, just because the names are the same it doesn’t mean the results will be. Last year the Blue Jays got 417.2 innings of 3.56 ERA ball from a pair of pitchers in Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey with a combined age of 75. The soft-tossing duo may be aging gracefully, but it would be unfair to expect a repeat performance.

Instead, the Blue Jays will need young pitchers to take a step forward to cushion the potential decline of their veterans. A full season of Marcus Stroman will undoubtedly help matters, but perhaps the most obvious candidate for improvement is Drew Hutchison.

Coming off Tommy John surgery, Hutchison’s health was more important than his production in 2014, and the right-hander didn’t disappoint, making 32 starts. However, by other traditional measures his performance was uninspiring.

Hutchison posted sub .500 record (11-13) and while he spun some gems- like a complete game shutout where he outduelled Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers- there was a great deal of inconsistency in his game. By year’s end the 24-year-old’s ERA of 4.48 was well above the league average for starting pitchers (3.82).

Advanced metrics paint a far kinder picture of the Lakeland, Fla. native’s season, however. Hutchison’s K/9 of 8.97 ranked 16th among major league starters and his FIP of 3.85 was well below his ERA, indicating that he pitched significantly better than his bloated ERA would suggest.

When there is a discrepancy between a pitcher’s run prevention and his peripherals, Lady Luck is often the biggest factor, but with Hutchison something else is at play: his struggles pitching out of the stretch.

Pitching out of the stretch is a small mechanical adjustment pitchers are forced to make with men on base in order to speed up their delivery and prevent runners from stealing bases. It has been hypothesized in the past that it can hurt a pitcher’s velocity, but in most cases it makes no appreciable difference.

For Hutchison it has caused significant problems. Since debuting in 2012 he has been a totally different pitcher once men reach base.

With the bases empty his career numbers have been excellent.

However, once he starts pitching out of the stretch things have often gone sideways.

On average, pitchers’ numbers tend to be slightly worse with men on base, but not to the same extent as Hutchison.

Clearly Hutchison’s issues are atypical, but that’s not to say they aren’t fixable. The right-hander has youth and an impressive ability to miss bats on his side, not a combination to bet against.

For now though, his poor production with men on base has rendered him a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Like many young pitchers, Hutchison has potential that goes well beyond his production. In the former 15th round pick’s case, the discrepancy between the two has a very specific cause.

If Hutchison can improve out of the stretch it could be the difference between him being an above-average starter and just a guy who can take the ball every five days.

It could also be the difference between the Blue Jays having a good rotation and a great one.