TORONTO – The circumstances and factors at play have been different each time, but with the Toronto Blue Jays in the midst of a third straight August fade into oblivion, finding ways to overcome a deeply troubling trend must be the top priority for GM Alex Anthopoulos.
Without a doubt the dog days of summer is when the true contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, as four months’ worth of attrition truly begins to test the depth and mettle of the clubs in the hunt.
Throw in the increased pressure to perform as the margin for error decreases, and the mix becomes either a formula to fuel the clubs that rise to the occasion, and sink the ones that don’t.
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Why then have the Blue Jays – 9-19 in August of 2012, 12-17 last year and 7-16 this season after Wednesday night’s 5-2 win over the Boston Red Sox – failed so miserably when the big boys come to play?
There is no singular answer, but a common thread is that insufficient roster depth has been exposed each year.
In 2012, the Blue Jays entered August at 51-52, remaining afloat to that point despite long-term injuries to starters Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison suffered over a four-game span that June. Then a series of injuries decimated their lineup and off the cliff they went.
In 2013, the Blue Jays entered August at 50-57, trying to talk themselves into believing they still could pull themselves back into contention after a series of bold off-season moves hadn’t panned out as planned. Instead, they continued to spin their wheels en route to a last-place finish.
This year, the Blue Jays entered August at 60-50 thanks to an 11-3 run out of the all-star break, sitting 1.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the AL East lead, and three games up on the Seattle Mariners for the second wild card. It’s been crash and burn ever since.
What is to be made of it?
“The last two months, forget about being tired or whatever, the good teams somehow get better, not only within themselves, but at the (non-waiver trade) deadline there’s always moves made,” Jose Bautista said in an interview Wednesday. “And I’m not trying to bring up that issue again, and I’m not referring to our lack of moves, but that does happen.
“Teams at the top do strengthen up and get better, and the guys that either don’t add or just stay the same somehow don’t improve or get worse. I’m not saying that’s necessarily been the case, but that’s one of the things I can look at and point and say that might be it.”
The Blue Jays made two deals prior to the deadline in 2012, adding relievers Steve Delabar and Brad Lincoln, and stood pat last year. This time, Anthopoulos added infielder Danny Valencia, an incremental upgrade but not enough to make a substantive impact.
In contrast, the top two teams in each of baseball’s six divisions each made at least one significant addition save for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who already boasted the type of depth you’d expect from a $229-million payroll.
Now, is that alone why the Blue Jays are currently on pace for the worst August in team history, and the sixth worst month ever for the franchise?
No, and to say that’s it by itself is a reactionary oversimplification.
But when Brett Lawrie’s return from the DL lasted only a few innings, and Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind didn’t make an immediate impact when they came back to the field, the Blue Jays didn’t get the boost they had hoped for, and in some ways counted on.
Combined with a team-wide offensive dry-spell and a handful of dodgy starts from the rotation against a series of strong opponents, things unravelled quickly.
“Bottom line is we’ve just got to keep playing good and we haven’t the last two years prior to this year, but we were out of it so it didn’t matter,” said Bautista. “This year actually it mattered. When I look at it, this is the only important one out of those three years. And we still have time, it’s not over yet, we have a lot of games against the teams that are on top.
“We’re still within reach, even to win the division. Then we don’t even have to worry about the second wild card. Then you’re just buying yourself one game, anyways.”
The odds are certainly stacked heavily against either scenario (FanGraphs gave them a 2.4 percent chance of making the playoffs heading into Wednesday’s action), but for Blue Jays to think anything other than that would be even more concerning. They’ve shown fight, playing four straight extra-inning games before salvaging the series finale versus Boston, but too often have come a key hit or pitch short.
August chews up teams that are neither whole nor at their best.
“Physical fatigue gets you,” said manager John Gibbons. “It’s a game of emotion, too. When you start hitting those lulls, that can wear on you. When your team is feeling good, everything is going your way, I think it brings out the best in you. It’s an emotional roller-coaster, really. Everybody on every team is getting fatigued at this time of the year, the top teams find a way to win.”
Gibbons later added a mantra he repeats regularly: “At the end of the 162 games, the best teams get there, nobody really sneaks in too often.”
There’s no arguing that, and barring a miracle finish, the Blue Jays won’t be among those teams this year despite such promise. Augmenting the 40-man roster, not just the 25-man roster, sufficiently to ensure another summer swoon doesn’t happen in 2015 is the challenge now.