Even before this past week’s transactions commotion, I’d been casting a wary eye at the margins of the Toronto Blue Jays’ roster.
At this time of the year, the last half-dozen spots on any team’s 40-man roster increasingly come into play. Those roster spots become more significant as the team looks to add young and emerging players in time for a last season call-up, or as they look to clear space for incoming players acquired via trade.
What this means is that some replacement level veterans become increasingly expendable, while younger players who are reaching the end of their “prospect years” begin running out of runway before they are expected to show that they merit that prized and protected spot.
It’s even getting hard to discern the difference between the two subsets of players. At 26 years old, Kyle Drabek has had a number of false starts in the majors, but doesn’t have enough time to be considered a veteran. In the minds of most Jays fans, he’s certainly viewed as an unsuccessful prospect at this point. But you’d probably cast a different view on his hold on a roster spot than you would with 27-year-old Josh Thole’s.
Thole’s role on the team is completely dependent on R.A. Dickey’s presence, and one would suspect that if the knuckleballer were not on the team Thole would be out the door almost immediately after. (Notwithstanding last night’s output of a single, double, two walks, one run and one batted in which represents Thole’s high water mark as a Jay.) It’s the most tenuous hold on a spot on either the 40-man or the active roster, and yet that one thread is likely just strong enough to keep the personal catcher around at least through the end of the season.
Drabek seems to be reaching the end of his rope with the Blue Jays, as he has been shifted to the bullpen in Buffalo in recent weeks in what feels like a last ditch effort to find him a role. In general, his walk rate has been better this year (28 in 84.2 innings), but his strikeout rate is just average (16.7 percent) and he’s given up too many hits (95) to be considered a viable option in the top club’s bullpen.
Oddly, Drabek might be walking the same fine line that we saw Sergio Santos tumble over this week: He might be just bad enough that the Jays could remove him from the 40-man and still retain him. That, along with the size of a player’s paycheque, are always considerations that can lead a club to attempt to sneak a player through waivers.
The weird thing about those two players is that if you were to swap their birthdates, you could make an argument for keeping Thole, but Drabek would have far exceeded his usefulness. One year can make that much difference in perception. At the same time, 26-year-old Ryan Goins seems just young and controllable and maybe useful enough to make his retention seem likely.
Here’s a brief rundown of the other players who are on the roster bubble, and some of the choices the Jays may have to make:
Darin Mastroianni and/or Cole Gillespie: It’s probably too easy to jettison these two from the roster, but there you go. Both were brought on as the Jays’ outfield depth went from bad to worse between injuries and the insolence of Kevin Pillar. It seems as though Gillespie would not have been claimed had the Jays known that Nolan Reimold would be available, so his return from the DL is likely to end with a whimper.
Chad Jenkins: If Jenkins’ birth date fell in 1988 instead of 1987, you could almost convince yourself to give him another year. But given Deck McGuire’s earlier DFAing, you would expect a prospect of his vintage to be nearly out of time. He’s pitched commendably as a mop-up man on occasion this season, but this might be his ceiling, and his potential impact on the future of the team seems negligible.
Dan Johnson and/or Juan Francisco: When either or both Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion come off the DL, it seems likely that either one or the other will be released from the 25-man roster to make room. Given that both are out of options, a removal from the active roster will see them leave the organization. Francisco has age and positional flexibility on his side, though I’d prefer to keep Johnson.
Neil Wagner: Given his absence from active duty since June 1, it might be safe to assume that a transfer to the 60-day DL for Wagner could easily clear a spot on the 40-man. If he’s healthy enough to play, he still might not have a role on the big-league roster.
Steve Tolleson and/or Munenori Kawasaki: This might be a hard sell for some, especially since Tolleson’s solid play has earned him a cult following among some fans. And speaking of cult followings, few in the history of the franchise can claim the levels of devotion that Muni has, and his performance of late (.333 OBP, .333 SLG) has actually merited some degree of adulation. Still, if the right second or third baseman is available on the trade market, their usefulness to the team may run out, especially once Brett Lawrie is ready to start every day.
As much as the Jays are likely to be pushed into sending a player through irrevocable waivers in the coming weeks, there will be a number of other players who do not fit the plans of their teams, but may be of some use to the Jays in the final push.
I know that some of the moves GM Alex Anthopoulos and his front office team have undertaken elicit catcalls and accusations of “dumpster diving” after other teams’ refuse. The implication is that the team has either run out of ideas, has no plan, or that ownership has stopped supporting the team’s continuous improvement.
These minor moves at the edges of the roster are certainly uninspiring when placed in contrast against the sort of trade speculation that runs rampant at this time of the year. But this is an essential part of the care and housekeeping for a baseball organization.