The type of buying opportunity the Toronto Blue Jays have been waiting for all winter is finally here if Ervin Santana is indeed now willing to accept a one-year deal, as a report Friday night by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports indicated.
Really, there is no excuse at this point for general manager Alex Anthopoulos not to aggressively pursue the free-agent right-hander and stabilize a rotation that badly needs another supporting pillar, especially with J.A. Happ’s back woes and dodgy command leaving a substantial crack in a shaky foundation.
Up until the events of the past few days – when shifts within Santana’s representation seem to have left the 31-year-old with Jay Alou as his agent – a reasonable case could be made against anteing up the roughly $50 million over four years he was believed to be seeking.
As Anthopoulos, speaking in general terms, put it on Feb. 20, “It’s a comparison, how much better are they than what you have? We have to make that evaluation. Term and dollars are important. You like every player, but at certain years and dollars they don’t make sense for us.”
But on a one-year deal, the conversation shifts dramatically on a number of fronts.
First and foremost, adding Santana would allow the Blue Jays to run out a rotation of him, R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow and Drew Hutchison without depending on Happ to play a substantial role. One of Happ, Esmil Rogers or Todd Redmond could then serve as the long man/sixth starter out of the bullpen, while buying more development time for Marcus Stroman and more recovery time for Kyle Drabek.
Stroman, the gilt-edged 2011 first-rounder on the cusp of becoming a big-leaguer, is tantalizing but raw, and his development may be best served by some starts at triple-A Buffalo. Having Santana in the fold should suppress the temptation to break camp with him in the rotation.
A month or more in the minors for the 22-year-old also helps from a roster-management perspective, as well, buying the Blue Jays another year of control on the right-hander. If they wait long enough to bring Stroman up, they might also push back his service-time clock and keep him from becoming eligible for arbitration after two-plus seasons as a Super 2 player, instead of the usual three years.
And while the Blue Jays would have to surrender the 50th overall pick this June as compensation to sign Santana, who is a qualified free agent, they could recoup that if he has a big season by extending him a qualifying offer next fall. Should he falter and walk for nothing, the short contract term limits the financial damage.
Ultimately, though, there’s no arguing that the Blue Jays would be a better team with Santana on it, and it makes business sense to spend an extra $8-$12 million to support the roughly $135 million in payroll commitments already in place.
Go boom or bust in 2014, since if things go awry the current Blue Jays core will probably need to be turned over, anyway.
Other potential suitors for Santana on a one-year deal might include the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners, meaning a decisive expression of interest from the Blue Jays won’t guarantee that a deal will happen.
But time is wasting and, according to Rosenthal, Santana wants to get something done quickly.
That’s good because a truncated training camp has hampered the seasons of many players over the years, and Santana is sure to be worn down from a trying off-season during which he was expected to land one of the top contracts for a pitcher.
Instead, the regular season is three and a half weeks away, and he’s still looking for work.
The Blue Jays have so far read the market perfectly on this one, and they now appear to have an opportunity to sign Santana on their terms. No excuses, no spin, it’s on Anthopoulos to get it done.