When the Pittsburgh Pirates dealt Francisco Liriano to the Toronto Blue Jays on August 1 they happily would have accepted a bag of balls in return. Or a few bats. A few tins of dip perhaps, if they were so inclined.
Whatever your favourite baseball equipment-related cliche is, it could have been applied. The Pirates weren’t selling Liriano, they were giving him away. It’s not that they thought the big lefty was useless, they just believed that the $18 million left on his contract was no longer in line with what he could reasonably be expected to produce through 2017.
It’s hard to say to what degree the Blue Jays agreed with this assessment. Although they did bring Liriano into the fold, they only did so adding major surplus value in prospects Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez with just an out-of-favour Drew Hutchison going the other way. If they thought Liriano was worth his contract then they certainly drove a hard bargain.
Whether the Blue Jays imagined they’d get their money’s worth with Liriano at the time doesn’t much matter now because they absolutely did. In 49.1 innings down the stretch, he pitched to a sterling 2.92 ERA as his reunion with Russell Martin had him twirling gems like it was 2013. Given the slim margin by which the Jays made the playoffs, it’s probably fair to say they would have been on the outside looking in without him.
Though the post-season was not kind to him due to a concussion suffered from a stray line drive, Liriano is locked in as a member of the Blue Jays’ 2017 rotation. On a staff more stable than most, the veteran southpaw has a vast range of outcomes.
It’s possible he pitches like he did with the Pirates, which would make him an overpaid and wild fifth starter who consistently taxes the bullpen. Alternatively, he could be the pitcher he was with the Blue Jays, in which case he’ll be a mid-rotation bargain and put himself in qualifying offer territory next off-season. Each possibility is easy enough to imagine, but which is more likely?
Normally it’s safer to go with the bigger sample, making option one seem more plausible. It also tends to be very dangerous to assume hot finishes will carry over the course of an off-season into the following year. That said, if a player changes his approach substantially, it can show up in the years to come. Jose Bautista hitting 10 home runs in the September of 2009 prior to his 2010 breakout is a perfect example.
Liriano had a September to remember in 2016, posting much better stats than he did with the Pirates or during his debut month with the Blue Jays in August.
| Time Period | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April-July | 9.18 | 5.46 | 5.46 | 5.28 | -0.3 |
| August | 9.13 | 3.97 | 3.97 | 4.43 | 0.2 |
| September | 9.79 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 3.60 | 0.5 |
The September numbers are nice, but without any evidence Liriano changed anything they show a hot streak, not a blueprint for future success. However, during that month Liriano altered his pitch mix fairly radically.
| Time Period | Four-Seam | Two-Seam | Slider | Changeup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April-July | 3.69% | 47.19% | 31.14% | 17.70% |
| August | 3.13% | 45.31% | 29.69% | 21.88% |
| September | 12.96% | 40.59% | 22.74% | 23.47% |
Liriano and batterymate Russell Martin brought the four-seamer back, throwing it more that 10 percent of the time for only the second month since 2012. The southpaw’s straighter fastball can be a risky option, but it also helps him get ahead of hitters and gives him a sneaky strikeout pitch if he elevates it right.
Everyone knows that Liriano has a slider so filthy it’s borderline toxic, so that’s what they come to expect in a two-strike count. When he springs the high heat on them, it can be hard to adjust as New York Yankees catcher Austin Romine discovered in Liriano’s penultimate start.
This tactic works better with the four-seamer than the two-seamer because it’s got a touch more velocity and it stays high without any downward movement.
Another change Liriano made in his strong September was going to the changeup more often. For the first time since 2008 he threw more changes than sliders and, as a result, his slider percentage dropped to the lowest monthly mark of his career.
Using your best pitch less frequently doesn’t initially seem like the wisest course of action, but it helped Liriano control right-handed batters who had been getting the best of him all year. By feeding them a changeup-heavy diet he was able to hold them to a .190/.238/.318 line with 25 strikeouts and five walks. Considering they hit .258/.374/.450 against him during his time with the Pirates, it was a significant difference.
Although Liriano’s changeup isn’t the calibre of his slider it’s still an offering capable of making hitters look utterly lost when it’s on.
When Liriano first came to Toronto he was a little lost himself. He was a sinker/slider guy with nasty platoon splits, worrisome control problems and a sizeable price tag.
In September, when each win was essential, the left-hander found his groove and became a more balanced four-pitch starter, There’s no guarantee that carries over to 2017, but the Liriano-Martin combo is likely to build on what worked best last season.
Last July, Liriano looked like a possible liability who was the price of admission for beefing up the Blue Jays’ farm system. Now he has a chance to be a bargain.