Hosted by Ben Nicholson-Smith and Arden Zwelling, At the Letters connects Toronto Blue Jays fans with the stories, numbers and characters surrounding the team. Expect new episodes every Wednesday.
In the latest episode, Arden and Ben discuss the Blue Jays’ starting rotation, re-assess Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s path to the big leagues and wonder what the future holds for Shohei Otani.
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Here’s how the conversation unfolds:
• Ben and Arden discuss Joe Biagini, Marco Estrada and the Blue Jays’ starting rotation (4:39 mark).
• Russell Martin returned to the Blue Jays’ roster Tuesday after a long absence that reinforced his importance to the team (23:45 mark).
• What are the chances that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reaches the big-leagues in 2019 (31:00 mark)?
• Shohei Otani will reportedly be posted this off-season and play at the MLB level in 2018 (more below), so Ben and Arden weigh in on his options and whether the Blue Jays would be a fit (37:00 mark). Read Arden’s feature on Otani right here.
Here’s an overview of the rules regulating Otani’s potential transition from Japan to MLB…
• If Otani wants to become a free agent who can sign for the best offer, he’ll have to wait two more seasons, until after 2019.
• But reports now suggest that Otani’s not concerned about maxing out his potential earnings. If he’s truly intent on playing at the MLB level in 2018, and the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters post him, then he’ll be subject to the bonus restrictions that apply to international players under 25 years old. That would likely set him up for a signing bonus of $8-10 million range, and assure his new team six years of control.
• Some teams, including the Dodgers, Cubs and Astros, can only spend $300,000 on international players because of penalties for exceeding past spending limits. On the one hand, that could limit their ability to pursue Otani, but as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan pointed out, money clearly isn’t driving the 23-year-old’s decision if he’s willing to make the move now. That could create an opening for the likes of the Dodgers and Cubs.
• If Otani signs with an MLB team this winter, he’ll play three seasons earning close to the MLB minimum before becoming arbitration eligible for three more years. But as Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes, teams interested in Otani would do well to plan well in advance and start looking ahead at his second contract.
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