Nothing is official, but it seems likely that the Toronto Blue Jays will watch two franchise greats leave in free agency this off-season.
The potential departures of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are causing understandable consternation among the Blue Jays faithful, but it’s nothing new. Operating as a mid-market team, the Blue Jays have seen a number of beloved players leave as free agents.
While those losses have been painful at times, it’s worth asking whether the team would actually have been better off keeping the fan favourites. After all, the most prominent extension in franchise history – a $126 million deal for Vernon Wells – would have been a disaster had Alex Anthopoulos not nimbly got out from under it prior to the 2011 season.
Here’s a brief history of prominent Blue Jays to leave and a look at whether they lived up to their subsequent contracts:
George Bell
Left for: Chicago Cubs
Off-season: 1990-91
Contract Length: Three years
Contract Value: $9.8 million
Production: .256/.291/.421 with 63 HR, 262 RBI, 8 SB and 0.0 WAR in 1709 PA.
Verdict: Bad Value
When Bell put up an All-Star season in 1991, letting him go might have looked suspect, but his production fell off precipitously from there. Poor fielding and an inability to keep his OBP above .300 completely eroded his value in the last years of his career. The 1987 MVP simply wouldn’t have had a role on the World Series-winning Blue Jays clubs.
Roberto Alomar
Left for: Baltimore Orioles
Off-season: 1995-96
Contract Length: Three years
Contract Value: $18 million
Production: .312/.382/.480 with 50 HR, 210 RBI, 44 SB and 12.5 WAR in 1825 PA.
Verdict: Good Value
At the time the Blue Jays were rebuilding and didn’t necessarily need a veteran star like Alomar as much as a contender. Considering they won 74 and 76 games the next two seasons in a sense they were right as even the Hall of Famer wouldn’t have launched them into contention.
That said, during this period Alomar remained at the height of his powers and had the 88-win 1998 Blue Jays had him instead of Craig Grebeck the wild card might have been within reach. A team featuring Alomar, Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Jose Canseco and Roger Clemens would have been fun to watch.
Devon White
Left for: Miami Marlins
Off-season: 1995-96
Contract Length: Three years
Contract Value: $9.9 million
Production: .270/.332/.439 with 45 HR, 203 RBI, 57 SB and 8.1 WAR in 1825 PA.
Verdict: Good Value
The Blue Jays let White go for the same reasons Alomar left town and as a 33-year-old with a glove-first profile there was reason to be skeptical about how he’d age. While he did not win another Gold Glove during this contract, he did make his third All-Star Game in 1998 and provided dependable offence and stellar glovework.
By the time the Blue Jays were competitive again Jose Cruz Jr. was on the rise, so retaining White wouldn’t have affected the team’s trajectory significantly.
Joe Carter
Left for: Baltimore Orioles
Off-season: 1997-98
Contract Length: One year
Contract Value: $3.15 million
Production: .260/.304/.461 with 18 HR, 63 RBI and -0.5 WAR in 418 PA.
Verdict: Bad Value
It’s fair to say the Blue Jays were right not to invest in Carter’s final season in the major leagues. The then-38-year-old still had some pop, but he provided negative defensive value and had difficulty getting on base. Despite gaudy RBI totals, Carter had been in decline for years and giving in to sentimentality would have been foolish for Toronto.
Carlos Delgado
Left for: Miami Marlins
Off-season: 2004-05
Contract Length: Four years
Contract Value: $52 million
Production: .273/.366/.527 with 127 HR, 415 RBI and 9.0 WAR in 2392 PA.
Verdict: Fair Value
Losing Delgado was a tough blow for Blue Jays fans, and the smooth-swinging slugger remained productive as he transitioned to the National League. At that point in his career he was probably better suited to DH, so playing every day at first may have dented his overall value.
You could argue $52 million was too much to pay for nine Wins Above Replacement at the time of the deal, but it was inefficient at worst, certainly not disastrous. According to FanGraphs he was provided $48.3 million in value over the life of the contract.
Had the Blue Jays signed him to this deal it would have elicited few complaints. He would have been especially helpful to the 86-win 2008 Blue Jays team that had an extraordinary rotation, but struggled to score runs while using a 40-year-old Matt Stairs as the primary DH.
Left for: Houston Astros
Off-season: 2014-15
Contract Length: One year
Contract Value: $8 million
Production: .238/.314/.475 with 25 HR, 61 RBI and 2.9 WAR in 485 PA.
Verdict: Good Value
A reunion between Rasmus and the Blue Jays seemed exceedingly unlikely following the 2014 season and they almost certainly couldn’t have brought him back into the fold with the deal the Astros offered him.
That said, the slugger provided Houston with a cheap source of power and was essential in the team’s 2015 wild-card win over the Yankees, providing a second-inning home run for all the offence the team needed to advance.
David Price
Left for: Boston Red Sox
Off-season: 2015-16
Contract Length: Seven years
Contract Value: $217 million
Production: 17-9 record with 8.92 K/9, 1.96 BB/9 and 1.17 HR/9 good for a 3.99 ERA, 3.60 FIP and 4.5 WAR in 230 IP.
Verdict: Jury’s Out
In his first season with the Red Sox, Price’s run-prevention numbers were worse than his career norms, but his peripherals were strong and he ate more innings than anyone in baseball.
While Price would have been a strong addition to the win-now 2016 Blue Jays, it remains unclear how good an investment his massive contract will be when it’s all said and done. Last year his velocity dipped slightly, and his deal’s viability may depend on his ability to adjust to the reduced velocity that comes with age.
Considering the current strength of the Blue Jays’ rotation, it’s unlikely the team is broken up about not offering Price this deal.
