Let’s get this out of the way: there’s a good chance Russell Martin had a career year at the plate in 2014.
He batted .290, well above his career mark of .259. He posted an .832 OPS, well above his career mark of .754. And those numbers were made possible because of a career-high .336 batting average on balls in play.
Martin had not posted an OPS above .732 in any of the five seasons preceding 2014, so expecting him to earn MVP votes every year would be unrealistic. But that’s OK for the Toronto Blue Jays, even though they will pay Martin a backloaded $82 million deal over the course of the next five seasons.
First, there’s his defence. Martin prevented 39 percent of would-be base stealers in 2014, while Dioner Navarro caught 21 percent. That’s one reason Martin was worth 5.3 wins above replacement in 2014 and it looks like a considerable upgrade for Toronto.
Martin also generated 155 extra strikes with his receiving this past season, according to Baseball Prospectus. That’s a skill that players retain as they age – how else do you think Jose Molina held down a roster spot for so long? – which bodes well for Blue Jays pitchers. An extra strike here and there could make a meaningful difference for the likes of Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison.
Then there’s the fact that the Blue Jays are paying Martin like a very good player, rather than an elite one. While the $82 million commitment represents the biggest free agent signing in Blue Jays history, it probably won’t be one of the five biggest free agent deals agreed upon this winter. In the last decade, 23 free agents have obtained more than $82 million.
Many more have signed lucrative extensions surpassing the $100 million threshold including catchers Buster Posey ($159 million/8 years) and Joe Mauer ($184 million/8 years). Martin’s not anywhere near that range.
Instead, he’s more closely aligned with recent free agent deals for catcher Brian McCann ($85 million/5 years), outfielders Hunter Pence ($90 million/5 years), B.J. Upton ($75.25 million/5 years), Jason Bay ($64 million/4 years) and Nick Swisher ($56 million/4 years) and designated hitter Victor Martinez ($68 million/4 years). Those players all enjoyed plenty of MLB success, but they weren’t brought in as franchise players.
The same holds true for Martin. The Blue Jays already have Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion anchoring their lineup, so the team will still score if Martin’s numbers resemble his career norms from here on.
While some baseball people were surprised by the $82 million guarantee Martin obtained, one agent cautioned that we shouldn’t be taken aback when a quality player signs a big deal. Baseball is a $9 billion industry, after all. Another player rep pointed out that teams are now willing to pay big bucks for skills that were overlooked in years past such as on-base percentage and catcher defence.
The Martin deal is huge in a Blue Jays context and not only because it’s the biggest free agent deal Anthopoulos has completed as GM. Martin’s a respected player with extensive playoff experience – the kind of guy who can have a positive impact on the clubhouse. It shows that the Blue Jays are willing to spend, and it doesn’t hurt that the recipient is a Canadian fluent in both French and English.
In the context of free agency as a whole? The deal might be a little surprising, but it’s by no means precedent-setting.
Martin doesn’t have to hit his way onto MVP ballots every year to justify the price Toronto paid. Even if his offensive numbers drop off to his career norms, he can justify the $82 million price tag as long as his health and defence hold up.